Inflation Cools While Consumer Spending Slows; Trade Deficit Narrows as Markets Rise

PCE came in largely as expected, with headline month-over-month at +0.4% and core PCE year-over-year dipping below 4% to 3.9%.
Personal spending rose +0.4% monthly but real spending was only up +0.1%, showing high prices biting into consumer spending.
Trade deficit narrowed significantly in August to -$84.2 billion, among the lowest deficits in the past year.
Retail inventories jumped +1.1% monthly while wholesale inventories fell -0.1%, showing supply/demand imbalance.
Pre-markets reacted positively to the data, with the Dow up 170 points, S&P 500 up 25 points, and Nasdaq up 130 points.

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Relevant topic timeline:

8/27/2023

Inflation and jobs data on tap as Fed's path remains in focus: What to know this week

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments about potential future rate hikes have put the focus on upcoming data releases, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the August jobs report, as investors assess the state of the economy.

8/31/2023

PCE inflation report: Key measure ticks higher in July. What will the Fed do?

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index, increased in July, suggesting a higher likelihood of further interest rate hikes this year.

8/31/2023

Stock Market Today: Stocks Close Mixed Ahead of July Jobs Report

Stocks had a mixed day as investors reacted positively to the latest inflation data, but overall, it has been a challenging month for the equities market. The July personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) index showed a modest increase in consumer spending, while the core PCE remained unchanged. Despite the "disappointing" details, experts expect the Federal Reserve to maintain unchanged interest rates in September. Additionally, tech stocks like Salesforce saw a boost after reporting strong earnings and highlighting their generative AI initiatives.

9/6/2023

India's August fuel consumption perks up on strong manufacturing

India's fuel consumption in August increased slightly from a 10-month low, driven by strong factory activity and offsetting the usual monsoon season decline.

9/29/2023

Inflation Shows Signs of Easing as Key Price Gauge Rises Less Than Expected

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, rose less than expected in August, suggesting progress in the central bank's fight against higher prices.

9/29/2023

Slowing Inflation and Rising Odds of Fed Pause Boost Markets

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, showed slow growth in August, with the core PCE rising by only 0.1% on a monthly basis, suggesting that inflation is cooling and falling in line with the Fed's target.

9/29/2023

Consumer Spending Slows in August, Contributing to Drop in Inflation

Consumer spending in August saw a slight increase of 0.4%, which is less than the previous month's 0.9% rise, according to Commerce Department data.

10/27/2023

September Inflation Data to Shape Fed Rate Hike Outlook

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.7% YoY in September, while markets may overlook the PCE inflation data following the release of the GDP report.

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Posted 9/29/2023, 1:36:56 PM

Inflation Cools While Consumer Spending Slows; Trade Deficit Narrows as Markets Rise

PCE came in largely as expected, with headline month-over-month at +0.4% and core PCE year-over-year dipping below 4% to 3.9%.
Personal spending rose +0.4% monthly but real spending was only up +0.1%, showing high prices biting into consumer spending.
Trade deficit narrowed significantly in August to -$84.2 billion, among the lowest deficits in the past year.
Retail inventories jumped +1.1% monthly while wholesale inventories fell -0.1%, showing supply/demand imbalance.
Pre-markets reacted positively to the data, with the Dow up 170 points, S&P 500 up 25 points, and Nasdaq up 130 points.

zacks.com

Relevant topic timeline:

8/27/2023

Inflation and jobs data on tap as Fed's path remains in focus: What to know this week

8/31/2023

PCE inflation report: Key measure ticks higher in July. What will the Fed do?

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index, increased in July, suggesting a higher likelihood of further interest rate hikes this year.

8/31/2023

Stock Market Today: Stocks Close Mixed Ahead of July Jobs Report

9/6/2023

India's August fuel consumption perks up on strong manufacturing

India's fuel consumption in August increased slightly from a 10-month low, driven by strong factory activity and offsetting the usual monsoon season decline.

9/29/2023

Inflation Shows Signs of Easing as Key Price Gauge Rises Less Than Expected

9/29/2023

Slowing Inflation and Rising Odds of Fed Pause Boost Markets

9/29/2023

Consumer Spending Slows in August, Contributing to Drop in Inflation

Consumer spending in August saw a slight increase of 0.4%, which is less than the previous month's 0.9% rise, according to Commerce Department data.

10/27/2023

September Inflation Data to Shape Fed Rate Hike Outlook