Main financial assets discussed:
- U.S. government debt (long-term U.S. treasuries)
Top 3 key points:
1. The U.S. government has proven its ability to transform its fiscal situation and maintain solvency over the long term. It has the flexibility to change revenue and transfer arrangements to maximize efficiency and growth.
2. Wall Street tends to have a myopic view and is often critical of the government, but the U.S. government is the world's largest financial entity and has the confidence of the rest of the world. It is likely to maintain its status as a world reserve currency.
3. Political polarization and bias can compromise decision-making and accuracy in financial analysis. It's important to suspend emotional thinking and political beliefs when evaluating the government as a financial entity.
Recommended actions: **Buy** long-term U.S. treasuries (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) as a proxy for the "stock" of the United States of America. The countercyclical characteristics of these bonds make them a good hedge against stocks, and recent price action suggests that rates will likely reverse recent gains. The U.S. government's ability to adapt and its long-term competitiveness make it a favorable investment. However, there are risks to consider, such as long-term elevated inflation and policy paralysis, which could impact the thesis.
### Summary
Investors are looking to put their cash into junk assets as fears of a severe US recession recede, leading to increased demand for high-yield markets and borrowers taking advantage of refinancing and amend-and-extend transactions.
### Facts
- There is an excess demand for high-yield markets due to limited issuance, resulting in borrowers having more flexibility through refinancing and amend-and-extend transactions.
- The amount of high-yield credit due in 2025 has decreased by almost 12% since the start of 2023.
- US GDP growth is expected to increase, leading to Morgan Stanley lowering its base case for US junk and loan spreads.
- Safer companies are holding back from taking advantage of the rally, anticipating lower borrowing costs in the future.
- Risk appetite has softened due to concerns over higher interest rates, leading to a two-speed economy and potential challenges for companies with high levels of leverage.
- The private credit market set a record with the largest loan in its history, and several other notable financial transactions have taken place in the week.
- There have been personnel changes in various financial institutions, including Credit Suisse, Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia, and Santander.
📉 Money managers who loaded up on US government bonds as a bet against recession are now facing subpar returns and a deepening selloff as Treasury yields rise.
📉 The annual return on US government bonds turned negative last week as Treasury yields reach a 15-year high, suggesting that interest rates will remain elevated and the economy can handle it.
📉 Bob Michele, CIO for fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, remains undeterred and is buying every dip in bond prices.
📉 Other prominent money managers, including Allianz Global Investors, Abrdn Investments, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, and DoubleLine Capital, believe that the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes is just starting to be felt by the economy and predict a recession.
📉 Fund managers are making adjustments to duration to hedge their positions, with some shortening duration while others maintain overweight positions.
📉 Historical patterns suggest that rate hikes often lead to slumping economies, but it remains uncertain whether yields will follow the same pattern this time.
📉 The borrowing needs of wealthy economies and the flood of debt issuance may lead to higher yields.
📉 Despite the current environment, some funds that took short bond, long stock positions have faced significant drawdowns, indicating that rates may remain elevated.
📉 J.P. Morgan's Michele is confident that bond yields will fall once the Fed finishes its tightening cycle, even before the first rate cut.
US bond-market selloff continues as resilient economy prompts investors to anticipate elevated interest rates even after the Federal Reserve finishes its hikes, leading to a 16-year high in 10-year yields and increased inflation expectations.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
A stock market rally is expected in the near term, as recent market corrections have created potential opportunities for investors to increase equity exposure, despite the possibility of a 5-10% correction still lingering. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have underperformed in 2023, could present decent upside potential in 2024, particularly if there is a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle.
Hedge funds' increased use of leveraged trades in the Treasury market is raising concerns among economists at the Federal Reserve Board, who highlight the need for continued monitoring due to the potential financial stability vulnerability of these trades.
The 10-year Treasury bond is poised for its third consecutive year of losses in 2023, a historical first, as bond returns have suffered due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation and the lower returns on stocks and bonds expected in the coming decade.
Approximately $7.6 trillion of outstanding U.S. government debt is set to mature within the next year, raising concerns about how the Treasury will finance its borrowing needs going forward, although the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee believes that Treasury can continue to issue Treasury bills given the current levels of demand, according to a letter released last month; the committee also recommended that Treasury take steps to normalize the level of T-bill issuance over time.
The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about disruptions in the US Treasury market due to hedge fund trading strategies that could exacerbate market crashes.
Treasury yields are expected to rise in the future, which could have a negative impact on the stock market.
US bond markets have been experiencing a rare and powerful trend known as bear steepening, which involves a significant increase in long-term yields, and if left unchecked, it could have detrimental effects on equity markets and the overall economy.
The recent decline in the US equity market is validating concerns about its lopsided nature, with a small number of top-performing stocks leading the market lower and the remaining companies struggling to make gains, potentially exacerbating losses in a rising Treasury yield environment.
Mounting fears of rates staying elevated for longer sent jitters through global risk assets, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to a peak not seen since the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the dollar to a 10-month high.
The recent selloff in the Treasury market may present a good investing opportunity due to the current stage of the cycle, according to Andrew Szczurowski of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, however, it is also causing fear among investors.
Rising Treasury rates and oil prices are creating an unfavorable situation for consumers, investors, and the economy, making it challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage inflation without causing a recession. The potential for a "soft landing" and decreased inflation remains, but the economy should prepare for possible sector-by-sector recessions and a full-blown recession, along with government shutdowns and fiscal policy disputes becoming normal occurrences. The discrepancy between short-term and longer-term rates controlled by the Fed has gained importance, with higher borrowing costs disrupting the stock and bond markets. In this volatile period, long-term investors should hold on and ensure they have enough money saved to weather the storm. While the Fed has pushed short-term rates higher, it has also benefited savers with higher yields on money market funds, short-term Treasury bills, and high-yield savings accounts. However, a strong dollar has impacted S&P 500 earnings, leading to a struggling stock market and increased costs for imports and exports. Rising interest rates pose the greatest economic challenge, affecting consumer loans and dampening spending. Traders who bet on long-term bonds have faced losses due to rising rates, highlighting the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. As a result, it may be advisable to purchase shorter-term Treasuries and keep bond durations lower. The surge in bond yields has also disrupted stock investors' expectations of controlled inflation and the Fed's tightening, leading to stock market losses. The economy and markets may experience more turmoil, as there are various factors beyond the Federal Reserve's control.
The US economy is facing turbulence as inflation rates rise, causing losses in US Treasuries and raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on assets like Bitcoin and the stock market. With additional government debt expected to mature in the next year, there is a fear of financial instability and the potential for severe disruptions in the financial system. The Federal Reserve may continue to support the financial system through emergency credit lines, which could benefit assets like Bitcoin.
The Treasury market is leading the equity market as long-term yields rise to their highest level in 16 years, suggesting investors should pay attention to bond market movements for stock market trends, with an optimistic outlook for AI companies in the coming months.
The bond market is causing concern for investors, particularly due to the actions of bond vigilantes who have increased control over the Treasury market and are pushing up yields. This has raised worries about the escalating federal budget deficit and its impact on bond demand and market clearing. The vigilantes have also left the high-yield corporate debt market untouched, leading to speculation about their views on government securities.
The recent surge in U.S. government bond yields, with prices falling, has raised concerns about the stability of the bond market and the economy, potentially leading to more bank failures and market upheaval.
U.S. Treasury yields stabilize after reaching multi-year highs as investors analyze economic data, particularly the slowing private job growth in September, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may soon come to an end.
The recent stock market pullback accompanied by a Treasury market rout has left investors increasingly pessimistic, but extreme pessimism could potentially lead to strong stock-market gains in the future, depending on how the situation resolves.
The sell-off in Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, which has caused yields to soar, is surpassing some of the most severe market downturns in history, with losses of 46% and 53% since March 2020, comparable to stock-market losses during the dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis.
Concerns surround the upcoming release of U.S. payrolls data and how hawkish the Federal Reserve needs to be, as global markets experience a period of calm following a tumultuous week that saw Treasury yields rise to 16-year highs, crude oil prices drop, equities decline, and the yen strengthen. Japanese government bond yields are also causing concern, as investor sentiment towards the Bank of Japan's stimulus remains low.
The surge in US Treasury yields, reaching their highest levels in over 15 years, is causing a selloff in government bonds, impacting stocks, real estate, and the dollar while pushing mortgage rates to over 20-year highs.
Market observers are concerned about a sharp jump in Treasury yields similar to that of the 1987 crash, and Saxo Bank's chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen suggests that investors reduce risk by increasing cash balances, hedging portfolios, rotating into short-term bonds, favoring defensive sectors over cyclicals, and avoiding mega-cap stocks.
Federal Reserve officials view the increasing yields on long-term US Treasury debt as a sign that their tight-money policies are effective, although they do not see it as a cause of concern for the economy at this point.
The rise in Treasury bond yields above 5% could lead to a more sustainable increase and potential havoc in financial markets, as investors demand greater compensation for risk and corporate credit spreads widen, making government debt a more attractive option and leaving the stock market vulnerable to declines; despite this, stock investors appeared unfazed by the September jobs report and all three major stock indexes were higher by the end of trading.
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing its bond holdings despite the recent surge in bond yields, as key measures of volatility and liquidity in the bond market are not indicating a significant risk, and higher credit costs align with the central bank's goal of restraining growth and lowering inflation.
Despite the ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds, certain sectors of the fixed-income market, such as bank loans, short-term junk bonds, and floating-rate notes, are performing well in 2023, offering some protection from the losses in long-term Treasuries, which have slumped 46% since March 2020. The future performance of long-dated bonds depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the resilience of the economy.
The surge in Treasury yields has negatively impacted stocks with bond-like qualities, particularly in sectors such as utilities and consumer staples, leading to significant losses for bond proxies.
The rapid increase in Treasury yields has heightened concerns about potential defaults in emerging markets, with several countries at risk of missing payments or being forced to restructure their heavy debt loads.
The Treasury bond market sell-off has led to a significant crash, causing high yields that are impacting stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, housing, and foreign currencies.
Bank of America warns that oversold U.S. Treasury notes could indicate upcoming volatility in various financial assets, including bitcoin, as historically sell-offs have coincided with major market events.
Treasury debt losses over the past three years have resulted in the worst bear market for the U.S. in its nearly 250-year history, with long-duration Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in over 16 years, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.
Investors' nerves were settled by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, suggesting that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could have a similar market effect as formal monetary policy moves, potentially reducing the need for further rate hikes.
US Treasury bonds had their best day since March as investors sought safe-haven assets, pushing down interest rates and suggesting hope that US interest rates may be at or near their peak. Meanwhile, cash-strapped Britons are cutting back on eating out and takeaways to save for the upcoming holiday season, while Deutsche Bank warns of potential stagflation risks similar to those seen in the 1970s.
Rising concerns over U.S. government spending and the budget deficit have led to a sell-off in Treasury bonds, pushing prices to 17-year lows as bond vigilantes punish profligate governments by selling their bonds.
Investors are closely monitoring the bond market and September CPI data to determine the Fed's stance on interest rates, with Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management highlighting the circular nature of market reactions to yield spikes and their subsequent declines. She suggests that while there are concerns about upward momentum, the equity market will find comfort in a continued drop in yields and could remain range-bound for the rest of the year. Diversification is recommended as the market narrative remains unclear, and investors may consider waiting until early 2024 for greater clarity on the economy and the Fed's actions.
As the U.S. national debt continues to rise and interest rates increase, concerns are growing among top investors about buying U.S. Treasurys and the potential for a debt crisis in the country. Regulators are working on reforming the structure of the Treasury market to avoid market failures like those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, but progress has been slow and questions remain about whether it's enough. The rise of electronic trading and high-frequency-trading firms has also brought new challenges and instability to the Treasury market. With a growing supply of government debt and little discussion about deficit reduction, the stability and future of the Treasury market are uncertain.
Investors are wary of rising Treasury yields and may be ready to sell equities if yields exceed 5%, which could compound selling pressure and potentially lead to losses in stocks, according to Bank of America's Michael Hartnett.
Treasury bond auctions have experienced weak investor demand, possibly signaling a trend of higher yields, although some experts believe yields are already at the right levels to stimulate demand.
UBS advises investors to focus on bonds rather than stocks, predicting that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 3.5% by mid-2024 due to slowing growth and the Federal Reserve's easing of policy, offering bondholders returns of around 13%.
The ongoing bond market selloff is causing the worst Treasury bear market in history, but investors are not panicking due to the orderly nature of the decline and the presence of institutional investors and shorter-term bonds as alternative options.
The US Treasury bond market is at risk of losing its strategic and short-term anchors, raising uncertainty about its future destination and the absorption of additional US debt, according to economist Mohamed El-Erian.
The US Treasury is set to auction off 20-year bonds, which has the potential to negatively impact the stock market.
U.S. stock investors are facing challenges as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, a level that makes government debt more appealing than stocks and hinders economic activity, causing equities to lose value.
Investors can find good opportunities in the Treasury market, despite not having the same high yields as in 1994, by considering short-term Treasuries, low-cost bond funds, and money-market funds with higher returns.
The $25.8 trillion market for US Treasury debt is facing challenges due to changes in market structure and regulations, requiring policymakers to take action in order to keep the market functioning smoothly and prevent disruptions.
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