Fitch's recent downgrade of US government debt reflects concerns over the country's deteriorating fiscal governance standards and the unlikely prospects of serious fiscal reform, signaling a change in perceptions that may have more damaging effects than the 2011 downgrade by S&P; factors such as broken supply chains, rising inflation, and a shift away from the US dollar as a safe haven currency contribute to a potential US slowdown and impact on global economic power.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The steep increase in public debt worldwide due to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic is likely irreversible, as countries struggle to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios due to factors such as population aging and increased public financing needs, according to economists at the International Monetary Fund and the University of California, Berkeley.
The steep increase in public debt worldwide over the past decade is unlikely to be reversed due to factors such as population aging, rising interest rates, and political challenges, according to a research paper presented at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual central banking symposium. Governments will need to manage high debt levels through spending limits, potential tax increases, and improved banking regulations.
The first nine months of 2023 have shown resilience in the market, with the Fed's tightening cycle dragging it higher, and there are concerns about wages, geopolitics, and weather impacting the economy.
The Federal Reserve is losing its power to influence the US economy, according to Wall Street economist Richard Koo, potentially requiring higher interest rates to drive inflation down and leading to a selloff in stocks and bonds.
Despite the appearance of a "Goldilocks" economy, with falling inflation and strong economic growth, rising yields on American government bonds are posing a threat to financial stability, particularly in the commercial property market, where owners may face financial distress due to a combination of rising interest rates and remote work practices. This situation could also impact other sectors and lenders exposed to commercial real estate.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter, showing resilience despite higher borrowing costs and a slight downgrade from the initial estimate of 2.4%, driven by consumer spending, business investment, and government outlays.
The U.S. economy has shown unexpected strength, with a resilient labor market and cooling inflation improving the odds of avoiding a recession and achieving a soft landing, but the full effects of rising interest rates may take time to filter through the economy.
The US economy may face disruption as debts are refinanced at higher interest rates, which could put pressure on both financial institutions and the government, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic.
The US saw a 54% increase in bankruptcies in August, with small and mid-cap companies being hit the hardest, as the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and higher borrowing costs continue to take a toll on businesses.
Consumer spending has remained resilient, preventing the US economy from entering a recession, and this trend will likely continue due to low household debt-to-income levels.
Leading market experts are raising concerns about the growing US debt, warning that it will lead to higher interest rates and potential economic repercussions as federal deficits increase and US debt supply continues to grow.
