The UK and eurozone economies are at risk of recession due to a significant slowdown in private sector activity, with the UK experiencing its poorest performance since the Covid lockdown and Germany being hit particularly hard; the US is also showing signs of strain, with activity slowing to near-stagnation levels.
The Organised Private Sector is concerned about potential job losses in Nigeria's economy following a decline in GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023, with manufacturers already cutting jobs and divesting from the country.
Job creation in the US slowed in August, indicating that the strong economy could be starting to weaken under pressure from higher interest rates. Private employers added 177,000 jobs, well below the previous month's total of 371,000. Pay growth also slowed, suggesting more sustainable growth as the effects of the pandemic recede. Investors and economists remain uncertain about the future of US inflation and whether the economy can continue to grow without a significant slowdown.
Private employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected in August, indicating a slowdown in the labor market and suggesting that the rapid job growth seen in recent years is no longer sustainable.
Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August with an annual pay increase of 5.9 percent, signaling sustainable growth as the effects of the pandemic recede.
Large numbers of job cuts and reduced investment are hitting British manufacturing due to a slump in demand, according to the deputy editor of The Telegraph, Tim Wallace. The purchasing managers’ index fell to 43 in August, down from 45.3 in July, the lowest reading since August 2014 and the worst performance since May 2020, shortly after the first Covid-19 lockdown, also the worst since the financial crisis. Wallace cites Make UK economist Fhaheen Khan’s view that interest rates and inflation have lowered sales, sparking job cuts.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
More than a third of homes for sale in the UK have experienced price cuts, the highest proportion in over a decade, suggesting that some sellers were initially too optimistic about their asking prices, according to property website Rightmove. The average size of the reduction is also the largest since January 2011 at 6.2%, with the typical cut amounting to £22,709. The housing market has been affected by a slump following consecutive interest rate rises, although there are signs of activity starting to pick up.
UK companies experienced a challenging September with growing unemployment and recession risks, reflected by a drop in the services sector PMI to its lowest level since the pandemic lockdown, leading to the Bank of England's decision to halt interest rate hikes.
Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, signaling a decline in jobs and wages in the past 12 months, according to the September ADP National Employment Report.
The US economy added 89,000 private-sector jobs in September, falling well below expectations of 160,000 jobs, indicating some labor market weakness despite other signs of strength.
According to a report by ADP, US employers added 89,000 new private-sector jobs in September, which is significantly lower than the expected 153,000 new hires. However, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a surge in available jobs, indicating a contrasting picture of the labor market.
U.S. employers reduced planned job cuts in September, particularly in the warehousing sector, although year-to-date workforce reduction intentions increased due to cuts in the technology and retail industries, indicating market uncertainty as the primary reason for layoffs.
Despite high interest rates and sluggish GDP growth, analysts predict that the UK will avoid a recession due to a likely end to rate increases, falling inflation, and a return to real pay growth.
