Main Topic: Russian President Vladimir Putin promises African leaders tens of thousands of tons of free grain.
Key Points:
1. Putin announced the provision of 25,000-50,000 tons of free grain to six African countries.
2. Russia faced international criticism for endangering the world's food supply by bombing Ukrainian ports and reneging on an export deal.
3. The decision to quit the Black Sea Grain Initiative has impacted Ukrainian exports and worsened the global food crisis.
Main Topic: Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territory forced to assume Russian citizenship or face retaliation.
Key Points:
1. Residents of certain regions in Ukraine are being targeted to strip them of their Ukrainian identity.
2. Decrees signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin compel Ukrainians to obtain Russian passports, violating international humanitarian law.
3. Ukrainians who do not seek Russian citizenship face threats, intimidation, and possible detention or deportation.
Main Topic: Russian warship firing warning shots on a Palau-flagged cargo ship in the Black Sea.
Key Points:
1. Russia scuppered a U.N.-brokered grain deal that allowed Ukraine to export agricultural produce via the Black Sea.
2. Russia warned that all ships heading to Ukrainian waters would be considered potentially carrying weapons.
3. Ukraine and the West view Russia's actions as a de-facto blockade of Ukrainian ports, threatening the flow of agricultural products to world markets.
Ukraine plans to defy the Russian blockade and reopen the Black Sea grain route.
Farmers in Ukraine, such as Valery Kolosha, are facing the consequences of Russia's actions that restrict Ukraine's grain exports.
The Russian government will not make it easy for foreign banks to leave the country, and the decision will depend on the unfreezing of Russian assets.
Russia is demanding that foreign banks unfreeze Russian assets if they want to exit the market, imposing increasing costs for corporate breakups.
Russia's leverage over the EU's natural gas supply has been reduced since its invasion of Ukraine, but it still has the potential to exert pressure, warns Swedish bank SEB.
Russia has reached an agreement with Turkey to handle 1 million metric tons of discounted grain that Russia plans to send to Africa with financial support from Qatar, as part of its efforts to court African countries suffering from food shortages.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will discuss circumventing Russia's "continued Black Sea grain blockade" at the G20 summit and Lloyd's of London is in talks with the UN to potentially cover Ukrainian grain shipments if a new Black Sea grain corridor agreement can be reached.
Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports and extreme weather events have raised concerns about global food supplies, but the OECD suggests that the situation may not be as dire as it seems, with adjustments and adaptations being made to production and logistics chains to mitigate potential shocks in the market.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his forces in occupied southern Ukraine are determined to retain control of Crimea, as it is key to Russia's regional power projection and allows them to dominate the Black Sea region, project force into the Mediterranean, and supply their units in neighboring oblasts.
Any attempt to revive the Black Sea grain deal that isolates Russia is unlikely to be sustainable, according to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who expressed hope but acknowledged the challenges in reviving the agreement at the G20 summit in New Delhi.
The European Union condemns the "illegitimate" elections held in Russian-annexed parts of Ukraine, while a UN official says that Russia's aggression in Ukraine is synonymous with torture and inhuman cruelty; meanwhile, the Kremlin spokesperson claims that no one will be able to compete with Putin if he runs for president in 2024, and the UN Human Rights Commissioner states that Russia's withdrawal from a grain deal is fueling global food insecurity. Ukrainian forces regain control of drilling platforms near the Crimean coast and Putin arrives in Vladivostok for the Eastern Economic Forum, while South Korean media reports that Kim Jong Un is en route to Russia, and Ukraine reports advances in Bakhmut and Donetsk city. Finally, Brazil's President Lula says it's up to the judiciary whether to arrest Putin if he visits the country.
The Ukrainian military claims to have recaptured strategic gas and oil drilling platforms from Russia in the Black Sea, taking back an asset that Russia seized in 2015 and increasing Ukraine's control over the waters of the Black Sea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Ukraine to cancel the ban on negotiations imposed by President Zelensky, emphasizing the need for dialogue and suggesting that talks could be a way for Ukraine to replenish their reserves and reinvigorate their army.
Russia and Ukraine will face off in the International Court of Justice where Russia claims its invasion of Ukraine was to prevent genocide, while Ukraine argues Russia is abusing international law; the case is focused on legal arguments about jurisdiction and has potential future implications for reparations claims.
Poland has announced that it will cease supplying weapons to Ukraine amidst a heated dispute over grain exports, with fears of Ukraine flooding the market with low-cost grains due to blocked Russian export routes through the Black Sea.
As support for Ukraine from its international allies declines, there are concerns that Russia may exploit weaknesses and fractures in Ukraine's partnerships, particularly as elections in allied countries approach, and tensions between Ukraine and Poland heighten over agricultural exports.
Russia is expected to export a historically high amount of wheat this year, gaining a larger share of the global market and undermining Ukraine's position as a top wheat exporter, which would have major economic and war-fighting implications for Ukraine; Russia's actions are also aimed at cultivating alliances with developing nations and gaining positive publicity.
