A team of equity-derivative strategists at Bank of America argues that the influence of rising zero-day option volumes has been exaggerated and that other factors, such as rising Treasury yields and trading by systematic quant funds, were likely the drivers of a sharp move lower in the S&P 500.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
Systematic option traders and funds have significant control over the US stock market, reducing the impact of fundamental news, such as Nvidia's earnings report, and contributing to increased market volatility.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
Investors are paying more for options that hedge against a decline in the S&P 500, indicating rising concerns about a downturn amid economic troubles in Europe and China, ahead of crucial readings on US consumer prices and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision.
Stocks are expected to open the week higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% in premarket trading, as investors look ahead to key U.S. economic data and show interest in companies such as Lennar, Arm, Tesla, and Oracle.
Stock traders are bracing for potential turbulence as $4 trillion of options contracts tied to stocks and index options are set to mature this week, coinciding with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes, though some investors remain optimistic about a potential fourth-quarter rally.
Stock options worth $3.4 trillion are set to expire on Friday, potentially leading to increased volatility and price declines in both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, with September historically being a negative month for these assets. There is also a possibility of a surprise interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which could impact risk assets.
U.S. stock prices are in a danger zone that could trigger "mechanical selling" and accelerate a downward move, according to strategist Charlie McElligott, as surging Treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve put pressure on growth stocks, potentially leading to options dealers selling stock futures and exacerbating the market weakness.
The recent pullback in the U.S. stock market could potentially lead to a test of the S&P 500 index's 200-day moving average, with a breakdown in the relationship between cyclical and defensive stocks being an early indication of a bearish trend change, according to analysts.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates has caused concern in the financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin potentially underperforming; however, there appears to be a decoupling between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, which could be attributed to factors such as regulatory concerns and the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF introduction. This decoupling may favor Bitcoin.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
The S&P 500's stability at the 4,200 level is crucial for determining the continuation of the bull market, with chartists and investors closely monitoring the 200-day moving average and potential implications for long-term trends and investor sentiment.
The US stock market is experiencing a concerning situation with "bad breadth," as the S&P 500 equal-weighted index falls into correction territory and major equity indices give up all their gains for the year, raising risks of heavy reliance on a few megacap stocks.
Unusual trading activity in the options market, reflected in a surge in the composite put-call ratio, may help explain the recent rally in U.S. stocks.
The S&P 500 is at a crucial moment as it is caught between key technical levels, and the next phase of the bull market hinges on a breakout; year-end seasonality is expected to be positive for the stock market.
The S&P 500 Index is facing obstacles in maintaining a bullish trend, with a downtrend line and an unfilled gap on the chart, while resistance is observed at around 4380; however, there is still a McMillan Volatility Band buy signal in place, indicating some positive aspects.
The S&P 500 is at risk of a technical breakdown, but oversold extremes and potential rebound indicators suggest that a reversal in stock prices could be imminent, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton.
