UK Economy Shrinks in July But Shows Resilience Over Quarter Despite Strikes and Bad Weather

The UK economy shrank by 0.5% in July, more than expected, due to strikes and bad weather.
The services, production, and construction sectors grew over the 3 months to July despite the monthly decline.
Sporting events and theme parks provided a slight boost to the economy in July.
The Chancellor said there are reasons to be confident about UK growth compared to other countries.
An economist said the decline could mark the start of a mild recession, but the Bank of England may still raise rates next week.

bbc.com

Relevant topic timeline:

8/19/2023

Wages rising faster than inflation is good news but can we sustain it?

### Summary Average wages in Britain rose at a rate of 7.8% annually between April and June, outpacing inflation of 6.8% in July. However, the long-term picture shows that workers are still no better off than they were four years ago, indicating the need for sustained pay rises to improve living standards. ### Facts - 💰 Average wages in Britain rose at a rate of 7.8% annually between April and June. - 📉 Inflation in July was 6.8%, lower than the previous month's figure of 7.9%. - ⚠️ The long-term data shows that workers are no better off than they were four years ago. - 🔒 The Bank of England is concerned about wage rises leading to inflation becoming entrenched in the economy. - 📉 The UK's productivity levels have fallen behind its peers since the financial crisis. ### Additional Information - The Bank of England and Chancellor discourage asking for higher wages, fearing a wage-price spiral. - The current UK real average weekly earnings figure is the same as it was in May 2019 and December 2010, and no better than in March 2006. - Sustained pay rises are needed for workers to improve their living standards.

9/4/2023

Britain’s statisticians fix a blunder and find a bigger economy

Revisions to economic data by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have revealed that the UK economy was 0.6% larger at the end of 2021 than previously estimated, improving the country's performance relative to its peers in the G7. The revisions also highlight the impact of stockpiling in 2020 and indicate stronger growth in 2021, particularly in sectors such as wholesale trade and health services. However, while the revisions provide a more positive outlook, the UK's economic narrative remains relatively mediocre compared to pre-pandemic levels.

9/12/2023

Real wages stop falling as pay growth matches inflation

Wage growth in the UK has caught up with rising prices, resulting in real pay no longer falling, according to official figures, although the unemployment rate has risen and job vacancies have fallen. The data will also impact the state pension, which is set to increase by 8.5% next April.

9/12/2023

UK Unemployment Rises While Pay Growth Stays High amid Inflation Concerns

The UK jobless rate rises to 4.3% as unemployment increases, but wage growth surpasses inflation, with total pay rising by 8.5% and regular pay growing by 7.8% in the May-July quarter.

9/13/2023

UK Economy Shrinks More Than Expected in July, Sparking Recession Fears

UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% in July, below expectations, with services output being the main drag on the economy, indicating a potential mild recession, and causing investment banks to revise down their growth forecasts; however, some experts still believe that the economy is growing, albeit at a slower pace.

10/9/2023

German Industrial Output Falls Again in August, Raising Recession Worries

German industrial output contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, falling by 0.2%, indicating ongoing pressure on the sector and raising concerns of a recession, as analysts predict further decline in the coming months due to high interest rates and falling demand.

10/12/2023

UK Economy Rebounds Slightly in August but High Inflation Persists

The UK GDP YoY growth rate is in line with expectations, showing a positive response to July's contraction, while the three-month average also meets forecasts, indicating a choppy economic outlook domestically and internationally as global growth slows down.

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Posted 9/13/2023, 6:16:39 AM

UK Economy Shrinks in July But Shows Resilience Over Quarter Despite Strikes and Bad Weather

The UK economy shrank by 0.5% in July, more than expected, due to strikes and bad weather.
The services, production, and construction sectors grew over the 3 months to July despite the monthly decline.
Sporting events and theme parks provided a slight boost to the economy in July.
The Chancellor said there are reasons to be confident about UK growth compared to other countries.
An economist said the decline could mark the start of a mild recession, but the Bank of England may still raise rates next week.

bbc.com

Relevant topic timeline:

8/19/2023

Wages rising faster than inflation is good news but can we sustain it?

9/4/2023

Britain’s statisticians fix a blunder and find a bigger economy

9/12/2023

Real wages stop falling as pay growth matches inflation

9/12/2023

UK Unemployment Rises While Pay Growth Stays High amid Inflation Concerns

The UK jobless rate rises to 4.3% as unemployment increases, but wage growth surpasses inflation, with total pay rising by 8.5% and regular pay growing by 7.8% in the May-July quarter.

9/13/2023

UK Economy Shrinks More Than Expected in July, Sparking Recession Fears

10/9/2023

German Industrial Output Falls Again in August, Raising Recession Worries

10/12/2023

UK Economy Rebounds Slightly in August but High Inflation Persists