New study questions economic consensus on immigration

A new paper challenges the consensus that higher immigration leads to economic growth, arguing countries can prosper with lower immigration.
The paper questions assumptions that shrinking populations spell economic disaster and that immigration solves problems like labor shortages.
The UK has not become noticeably richer despite high immigration over 20 years. Japan has performed decently with low immigration.
Immigration has benefits but also costs like straining infrastructure. It may reduce incentives to automate.
The economic consensus that high immigration is always positive is breaking down. We need serious discussion beyond shibboleths.

telegraph.co.uk

Relevant topic timeline:

8/20/2023

The end of low unemployment

### Summary The combination of a record pace of immigration and slowing demand is leading to a rise in unemployment and lower wage growth in Australia, due to the Albanese Government's immigration policy. ### Facts - Australia's civilian population aged over 15 years grew by 598,000 in the year to July, or by 2.8%, thanks to the Albanese Government's unprecedented immigration program. - Labor supply growth (via immigration) is now twice as fast as before the pandemic, while labor demand is slowing. - The number of applicants per job is increasing, signaling rising unemployment. - Australia needs to create around 35,000 jobs per month just to maintain the current unemployment rate, which is unlikely given the current policy settings. - Rising unemployment and lower wage growth are expected due to the combination of strong labor supply growth and slowing demand. - The Albanese Government's extreme immigration policy is criticized for undermining working-class Australians while benefiting growth lobby mates.

8/24/2023

Britain’s failed experiment in boosting low-wage sectors

Brexiteers' plan to restrict immigration from Europe to boost productivity in low-wage sectors has failed, as productivity in these sectors has not increased and there has been no significant automation boom. The experiment to replace cheap foreign labor with robots or higher-skilled immigrants did not work due to a lack of commitment, poor quality of British managers, weak investment, and uncertainty around labor supply. The government needs to provide more certainty on immigration and tax policy to address these issues.

8/26/2023

There are almost 4 million more open roles than job seekers in the U.S. Here's why some economists think the immigration and labor crises are related

The United States is experiencing a high number of job openings, but a shortage of workers, leading to a debate on whether immigration policies should be more open to address this gap.

9/18/2023

Immigration Scapegoated for Australia's Housing Crisis, But Could Be Part of the Solution

Immigration is not to blame for Australia's housing crisis; rather, it has contributed to economic growth and filled critical gaps in the job market.

9/20/2023

Immigration Surge Eases Labor Shortages, Cools Inflation Without Raising Unemployment

Immigrants have played a significant role in meeting the surging demand for workers in the US, helping to cool inflation and potentially avoiding a recession before the 2024 election by filling job vacancies and boosting the labor force participation rate.

Topics

Posted 9/16/2023, 9:00:00 AM