### Summary
đ Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- đ¸ As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- đ° Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- đ San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- đł Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- đ The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
The blog emphasizes that the war on inflation has been won and that a recession is coming, as indicated by various indicators such as CPI, recession probabilities, freight industry performance, and weak retail sales. The post also highlights the struggles in China's economy and suggests that investors should buy bonds.
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Economists are accurate at predicting recessions in the near future but become less precise as the prediction timeline extends, according to a study by an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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