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Consumer Sentiment at Record Lows, But Spending Remains Strong in 'Vibecession'

  • Since 2020, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey has decoupled from its historical relationship with consumer spending. Sentiment is at record lows, but spending remains strong.

  • Before the pandemic, the survey accurately predicted consumer spending. But covid has severed this link, rendering the survey's projections wildly inaccurate now.

  • Economists built a model predicting sentiment pre-2020. It fits historical data well, but fails completely on recent data, projecting sentiment far above actual levels.

  • Although Americans report gloom about finances, their spending betrays no unease. Actions speak louder than words.

  • This "vibecession" suggests bad vibes may be the new normal. But the economy and spending remain strong despite low sentiment.

economist.com
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