Main Topic: U.S. consumer confidence increases to a two-year high in July, but mixed signals persist.
Key Points:
1. Consumers remain fearful of a recession due to interest rate hikes.
2. Consumers plan to buy motor vehicles and houses, but fewer anticipate purchasing major household appliances.
3. Consumers intend to spend less on discretionary services but expect to increase spending on healthcare and streaming services.
Latest results and forecasts from retailers indicate that U.S. consumer spending is under stress due to middle-income Americans spending less and struggling with debt, posing challenges for the retail sector during the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which may lead to softer consumer spending and sideways movement in the stock market for the rest of the year, according to experts. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card debt could further dampen consumer spending. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a recession, with falling output and sticky inflation contributing to its contraction this year, making it the only advanced economy to shrink.
German consumer confidence is expected to decrease in September due to persistently high inflation rates and a lack of clear upward or downward trend in the consumption climate.
German consumer sentiment is expected to decline in September due to decreasing income expectations and propensity to buy, hindering overall economic development and growth prospects in the country.
Consumer confidence in the US fell in August due to concerns about inflation, reversing the optimism from the past two months, according to The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.
Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July, as consumers expressed concerns about rising prices, employment conditions, and future business prospects amidst a cooling labor market and high interest rates.
The number of job vacancies in the US dropped in July, indicating a cooling labor market that could alleviate inflation, while fewer Americans quit their jobs and consumer confidence in the economy decreased, potentially impacting consumer spending; these trends may lead the Federal Reserve to delay a rate hike in September.
Consumer confidence in the United States has plummeted as high prices and interest rates deter spending, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index falling to 106.1 in August from a revised 114 in July.
US consumer confidence dropped to 106.1 in August from 114 in the previous month, reversing gains made in June and July, with economists blaming higher gasoline prices as a key factor behind the decline.
U.S. mortgage rates have dropped for the first time in six weeks, due to uncertainty surrounding the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates in September.
Consumer prices in the US rose 0.2% from the previous month, and 3.3% annually, indicating persistent high inflation and posing a challenge to the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb it; core prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased 0.2% from the previous month and 4.2% from the previous year.
Consumer confidence is dropping despite a strong economy, leading to questions about the factors influencing sentiment.
U.S. manufactured goods orders experienced a significant 2.1% decline in July, the first drop in four months, due in part to higher interest rates impacting business equipment spending.
Americans are experiencing low consumer sentiment, with claims of a "vibecession," but recent changes in economic indicators have weakened the predictive power of sentiment, suggesting that bad vibes may be the new normal.
The US consumer is predicted to experience a decline in personal consumption in early 2024, which could lead to a potential recession and downside for stocks, as high borrowing costs and dwindling Covid-era savings impact household budgets.
British grocery inflation fell to its lowest level in a year in September, with prices rising fastest in products such as eggs, sugar confectionery, and frozen potato products, providing some relief for consumers and the government.
Consumer spending in the US is showing signs of cooling, with retail sales expected to slow down in August, indicating that the resilience of the consumer may be waning due to increased borrowing, depleted savings, and the impact of inflation.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in August, while CPI inflation increased to 3.7% on a year-over-year basis, driven by surging oil prices, but core inflation fell to its lowest level since mid-2021, possibly indicating comfort for the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Despite claims by the Biden administration and corporate media that inflation is decreasing, the latest consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Americans paid 3.7 percent more for basic consumer items in August compared to the previous year.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
The difference between two consumer sentiment measures suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, indicating a potential recession.
Consumer confidence in the US fell for the second consecutive month in September 2023, with the Expectations Index dropping below the recession threshold, reflecting concerns about rising prices, the political situation, and higher interest rates. Assessments of the present situation were relatively unchanged, while expectations for business conditions, job availability, and incomes declined. Concerns about the current and future financial situation of families also increased.
The consumer confidence of American consumers decreased in September, particularly in regards to future expectations, amid concerns of elevated interest rates and a potential recession within a year.
Consumer spending in the US grew at a weaker pace than previously estimated in the second quarter, indicating that Americans have been cutting back on their spending more than expected.
Americans' views of the economy have worsened in September, with only 20 percent saying economic conditions are good and 73 percent believing that economic conditions in the country as a whole are worsening, according to a recent Gallup poll.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Supermarket competition in the UK has led to the first monthly drop in food prices in over two years, with prices down 0.1% in September, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The BRC also reported that grocery inflation fell to 9.9% in September, down from 11.5% in August, while overall shop price inflation decreased to 6.2%. Although prices are still rising, the rate of inflation is slowing, providing some relief for households. However, the BRC warned of potential risks such as high interest rates, climbing oil prices, and supply chain disruption.
U.S. consumer prices rose in September due to surging rental costs, but underlying inflation pressures remained moderate, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates next month.
Consumer prices in the US rose by 0.4% in September, slightly surpassing expectations, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.7% compared to the previous year, higher than the estimated 3.6%.
Consumer prices in the US grew at the same pace in September as in August, indicating that progress in controlling inflation may be stalling, prompting Federal Reserve officials to remain cautious with interest rate decisions.
Consumer sentiment in the US fell to its lowest level since May, with Americans' expectations for inflation over the next year reaching the highest level since April, potentially leading to higher price pressure.
Persistently high inflation in the US has led to a 7% decrease in consumer sentiment in October, with concerns over inflation impacting personal finances and expectations for future inflation rising to 3.8%.
