Main Topic: U.S. consumer confidence increases to a two-year high in July, but mixed signals persist.
Key Points:
1. Consumers remain fearful of a recession due to interest rate hikes.
2. Consumers plan to buy motor vehicles and houses, but fewer anticipate purchasing major household appliances.
3. Consumers intend to spend less on discretionary services but expect to increase spending on healthcare and streaming services.
### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
Consumers have spent most of their excess savings from the Covid-19 pandemic, and this trend is expected to continue until the third quarter of 2023, potentially leading to a slowdown in economic growth and job market expansion.
The US banking industry could face a significant drop in stock prices within the next 16 months if the economy enters a recession, according to macro guru Hugh Hendry.
Recent profit reports from companies such as Amazon, Walmart, and Home Depot, along with other consumer statistics, indicate that the case for a 2023 recession is weakening, as the consumer economy shows resilience with rising real incomes, substantial savings, and continued spending in sectors like automobiles and services.
Despite the optimism from some economists and Wall Street experts, economist Oren Klachkin believes that elevated interest rates, restrictive Federal Reserve policy, and tight lending standards will lead to a mild recession in late 2023 due to decreased consumer spending and slow hiring, although he acknowledges that the definition of a recession may not be met due to some industries thriving while others struggle.
Stocks are overvalued and a recession is expected in the first half of next year, according to economist Steve Hanke. He predicts that inflation will cool, Treasury yields will fall, and house prices will remain stable.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Despite concerns over the financial health of the US consumer, projections for a stock market decline may be unfounded as consumers have the capacity to spend, with low debt levels, significant assets, untapped home equity, low mortgage rates, and solid retail spending.
The performance of Nvidia stock has been impressive, but other retailers have struggled, leading to concerns about the economy, such as credit card delinquencies, falling home sales, weakening manufacturing, and tightening lending standards. These factors suggest that a recession may be looming.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which may lead to softer consumer spending and sideways movement in the stock market for the rest of the year, according to experts. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card debt could further dampen consumer spending. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a recession, with falling output and sticky inflation contributing to its contraction this year, making it the only advanced economy to shrink.
Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July, as consumers expressed concerns about rising prices, employment conditions, and future business prospects amidst a cooling labor market and high interest rates.
Consumer spending is driving third-quarter GDP growth, but unsustainable spending habits, tightening lending standards, and the depletion of pandemic savings may lead to a decline in consumer spending in early 2024.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
Top economist David Rosenberg predicts that the US will experience a recession within the next six months due to the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the erosion of credit quality in credit card debt.
US household savings accumulated during the pandemic are expected to be depleted by the end of September 2023, as the excess savings have steadily declined and are projected to continue falling at a rate of $100 billion per month, potentially impacting consumer spending and the wider economy.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius predicts that US consumers will remain resilient in 2024, with a projected growth of around 3% in real disposable household income, indicating that a decline in real consumer spending is unlikely despite signs of stress.
The US economy is predicted to enter a recession by spring, leading to a 25% or more crash in the S&P 500, according to economist David Rosenberg, who warns that American consumers are nearing their spending limits and rising home prices reflect a weak housing market.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, slowing housing market activity, and while home prices are not likely to fall significantly, rates are projected to decrease in 2023 and 2024.
Consumer spending has remained resilient, preventing the US economy from entering a recession, and this trend will likely continue due to low household debt-to-income levels.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
There are indications that a severe economic contraction may be approaching in the US, with a significant decline in home sales and rising interest rates, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone.
The odds of the U.S. entering a recession by mid-2024 have decreased, but certain regions, such as the West and South, are still more vulnerable due to rapid economic growth, high home prices, and inflation, according to Moody's Analytics. However, a severe downturn is unlikely, and the Midwest and Northeast are less susceptible to a pullback. Overall, the chance of a recession has declined nationwide, but there is still a risk for some metro areas, such as Austin, Boise, Ogden, and Tampa.
US household income fell by the most in over a decade in 2022, showing the impact of rising costs and the expiration of pandemic relief programs, with the median income dropping 2.3% and marking the third consecutive annual decline, contributing to concerns about the financial well-being of American families.
Consumer spending in the US has supported the economy despite concerns of a recession, but rising interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and dwindling savings are predicted to put pressure on consumers and potentially lead to a shrinking of personal consumption.
Despite economists giving the all-clear on a recession, there are still several red flags suggesting a downturn may be imminent, including an uncertain economic outlook, declining consumer confidence, maxed out credit cards, tightening credit conditions, maturing corporate debt, a manufacturing slump, global economic challenges, an inverted yield curve, and sticky inflation.
Jeremy Grantham warns of a looming recession by early 2025, expresses concerns about US stock market, economy, and financial system, discourages investment in real estate and commodities, but supports climate-change stocks like Tesla.
Entrepreneur Jaspreet Singh warns that signs of a potential recession in America include labor shortages, inflation-driven spending, and high interest rates, with economists predicting that the country may start feeling the effects of a recession by the second quarter of 2024. Singh advises Americans to educate themselves about saving money and investing to prepare for the possible downturn.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
The forecasted U.S. recession in 2024 is expected to be shorter and less severe than previous recessions, with the economy's interest-rate sensitivity much lower due to reduced leverage and elevated savings from the postpandemic environment, leading investors to consider positioning for investment opportunities that will drive markets into 2024.
A drop in savings among Americans and record credit-card debt could have disastrous consequences for the economy if a recession occurs, as data shows personal savings rates remain historically low and many Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
The Canadian economy has entered a long-delayed recession due to highly indebted households, overvalued home prices, and a slowdown in consumer spending, with the recession expected to last until the first quarter of 2024 and result in a 1.5% decline in GDP and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2%.
The latest Federal Reserve study reveals that Americans outside the wealthiest 20% have depleted their savings during the pandemic, with cash on hand now lower than pre-pandemic levels, potentially leading to a decline in consumer spending and a potential economic downturn.
Consumer confidence in the US fell for the second consecutive month in September 2023, with the Expectations Index dropping below the recession threshold, reflecting concerns about rising prices, the political situation, and higher interest rates. Assessments of the present situation were relatively unchanged, while expectations for business conditions, job availability, and incomes declined. Concerns about the current and future financial situation of families also increased.
The current state of the consumer is concerning as wages are not keeping up with inflation, excess savings from the pandemic have been depleted, and increasing levels of credit card debt are making it difficult to maintain spending levels, leading to potential economic headwinds.
Global wealth experienced a significant decline in 2022, with a 2.7% drop in households' financial assets worldwide, primarily driven by falling asset prices; however, there is optimism for a rebound in 2023 and subsequent years, with projected growth of 6%.
Consumer spending remains resilient despite inflation and rising prices, contributing to economic growth, while the risk of a recession in the US has decreased but not disappeared completely.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates elevated through 2024 is causing damage to the economy, resulting in falling stock prices, soaring debt costs, and negative impacts on sectors such as housing and commercial real estate. This poses a potential challenge for President Joe Biden's reelection campaign, as the economy struggles to handle the highest borrowing costs in two decades.
The decline in net household financial savings is largely due to the increase in their liabilities, with household financial liabilities rising from 3.8% to 5.8% of GDP in 2022-23, leading to concerns of growing household distress and potential implications for the broader economy.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
Investors and experts differ on the timing, but many believe a recession is inevitable in the near future due to falling consumer confidence and a slowing economy, prompting discussions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate moves.
The likelihood of the US avoiding a recession has decreased, as two factors, including a surge in interest rates and the potential for resurgent inflation, could push the economy into a downturn, says economist Mohamed El-Erian.
A new report warns that a recession may be imminent as employment, business optimism, and output continue to decline, with companies struggling to maintain staffing numbers and cope with higher borrowing costs and weaker customer demand.
