Consumers have spent most of their excess savings from the Covid-19 pandemic, and this trend is expected to continue until the third quarter of 2023, potentially leading to a slowdown in economic growth and job market expansion.
Despite initial predictions of a recession, the U.S. economy has experienced unexpected growth, with high consumer spending and continued borrowing and investment by businesses being key factors.
The U.S. economy continues to grow above-trend, consumer spending remains strong, and the labor market is tight; however, there are concerns about inflation and rising interest rates which could impact the economy and consumer balance sheets, leading to a gradual softening of the labor market.
U.S. economic growth may be accelerating in the second half of 2023, defying earlier recession forecasts and leading to a repricing of long-term inflation and interest rate assumptions.
Recent profit reports from companies such as Amazon, Walmart, and Home Depot, along with other consumer statistics, indicate that the case for a 2023 recession is weakening, as the consumer economy shows resilience with rising real incomes, substantial savings, and continued spending in sectors like automobiles and services.
Fresh signs of stress in U.S. consumer spending are emerging as retailers like Macy's and Foot Locker lower profit forecasts, indicating that middle-income Americans are spending less due to high living costs and existing card debt.
Consumer spending growth is slowing as the economy stabilizes, with consumers prioritizing essential purchases and adjusting their spending habits in response to rising interest rates and financial pressures.
As student loan payments resume, major retail and food chains in the US are warning investors about a potential slowdown in consumer spending, with retailers like Macy's, Target, and Ulta identified as particularly vulnerable due to their exposure to younger, low-income consumers with student loans.
Americans continued to spend on dining out despite concerns about recession and inflation, with retail sales at restaurants and bars increasing by 11.8% in July and 9.5% in June compared to the same period last year, according to the Commerce Department. The strong consumer spending in this sector is seen as a positive sign for the economy and has been reflected in the earnings growth of restaurant companies.
Despite overall solid consumer spending, retail earnings reports indicate a shift towards more cautious shopping habits, with lower-income shoppers feeling economic pressure and opting for essential items and discounts at off-price and discount retailers. Delinquencies on department store credit cards are rising, suggesting a stretched consumer, and retailers are bracing for the impact of the resumption of student loan payments on shoppers' budgets. The upcoming back-to-school season and Halloween will serve as indicators for the rest of the year and the holiday season.
Despite reaching record levels of total credit card debt and household debt, Americans are actually managing their debt better than in the past due to inflation masking the impact on balances and lower debt-to-deposit levels, according to an analysis by WalletHub. However, the rising trajectory of credit card debt and the increasing number of households carrying balances raise concerns, especially considering the high interest rates, which can take more than 17 years to pay off and cost thousands of dollars in interest. Meanwhile, savers have the opportunity to earn higher returns on cash due to higher inflation and interest rates.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which could lead to softer consumer spending and a decrease in stock market returns. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card addiction pose further uncertainties for the economy. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a contraction and a prolonged recession, which is a stark contrast to its past economic outperformance.
Australian retail sales rebounded in July, but the annual rate slowed, indicating that high borrowing costs are slowing consumer spending and not affecting the outlook for interest rates.
Student loan repayment resuming in the US this fall is expected to have a significant negative impact on the housing market, potentially affecting homeownership rates for at least a year, according to a poll conducted by Pulsenomics.
The number of job vacancies in the US dropped in July, indicating a cooling labor market that could alleviate inflation, while fewer Americans quit their jobs and consumer confidence in the economy decreased, potentially impacting consumer spending; these trends may lead the Federal Reserve to delay a rate hike in September.
Millions of Americans may have to prioritize their student loan payments over their retirement savings, as the resumption of student debt repayments poses a challenge for workers already struggling to save for retirement due to inflation and market volatility.
Consumer spending in China rebounded in August, with all categories, including apparel, automotive, food, furniture, appliances, and luxury, experiencing increased sales compared to July, according to a survey by the China Beige Book. Retail sales in July rose by 2.5% year-on-year, raising concerns about China's economic growth, but the August survey showed a surge in spending, particularly in the services sector, which saw continued strength in travel and hospitality. Additionally, corporate borrowing increased as the cost of capital declined, indicating a boost in business activity. However, China's property sector continued to worsen, with house prices barely growing and home sales declining.
More Americans are struggling to keep up with car loan and credit card payments, particularly lower-income earners, as higher prices and rising borrowing costs put pressure on household budgets, signaling potential consumer stress; the situation is expected to worsen as interest rates continue to rise and paused student loan payments resume.
US consumer spending increased by the most in six months in July, driven by strong demand for goods and services, but slowing inflation rates suggest that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next month.
Consumer spending in the US jumped 0.8% in July, the strongest monthly gain since January, driven by purchases of restaurants, live shows, toys, games, and recreational equipment; however, underlying data suggests that this spending may be on borrowed time.
Consumer spending is driving third-quarter GDP growth, but unsustainable spending habits, tightening lending standards, and the depletion of pandemic savings may lead to a decline in consumer spending in early 2024.
Struggling U.S. families relying on credit card loans to cover living expenses may face a spending correction soon, as consumers continue to spend despite rising rates and living costs, leading to potential unsustainable debt levels and limited access to credit.
British consumer spending growth slowed in August, despite a surge in cinema takings after the release of films like "Barbie", with spending on essentials such as food and fuel growing at its slowest rate since April 2020, pointing to a weakening economy.
US household savings accumulated during the pandemic are expected to be depleted by the end of September 2023, as the excess savings have steadily declined and are projected to continue falling at a rate of $100 billion per month, potentially impacting consumer spending and the wider economy.
The US economy grew modestly in July and August, with signs of consumers relying more on borrowing to support spending after depleting their savings, while inflation slowed due to decreasing price pressures in the goods sector, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report.
Despite the cooling inflation rate, the cost of goods and services in the United States has significantly increased, making it more expensive for the majority of workers to live, which contributes to their unhappiness about the economy.
Despite economists' expectations, many student loan borrowers have already resumed making payments before the October deadline, potentially leading to a decline in consumer spending and affecting the economy as households adjust their budgets.
Consumer spending has remained resilient, preventing the US economy from entering a recession, and this trend will likely continue due to low household debt-to-income levels.
The US consumer is predicted to experience a decline in personal consumption in early 2024, which could lead to a potential recession and downside for stocks, as high borrowing costs and dwindling Covid-era savings impact household budgets.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Despite increased household wealth in the US, millions of households are struggling financially due to inflation, high interest rates, and rising living costs, which have led to record levels of debt and limited access to credit.
U.S. consumer prices are expected to have increased the most in 14 months in August due to rising gasoline costs, while underlying inflation is forecasted to remain moderate, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady.
Consumer spending in the US is showing signs of cooling, with retail sales expected to slow down in August, indicating that the resilience of the consumer may be waning due to increased borrowing, depleted savings, and the impact of inflation.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
The US economy shows signs of weakness despite pockets of strength, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and consumer spending facing challenges ahead, such as the restart of student loan payments and the drain on savings from the pandemic.
The resumption of student loan payments in October could have a substantial impact on consumer spending and the economy, potentially subtracting 0.8 percentage points from consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter and putting pressure on retailers during the crucial holiday shopping season; however, the full extent of the impact remains uncertain due to factors such as income-based repayment programs, the one-year grace period for missed payments, and the potential for borrowers to prioritize other expenses over loan repayments.
The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, along with declining consumer savings, tightening lending standards, and increasing loan delinquencies, indicate that the economy is transitioning toward a recession, with the effectiveness of monetary policy being felt with a lag time of 11-12 months. Additionally, the end of the student debt repayment moratorium and a potential government shutdown may further negatively impact the economy. Despite this, the Fed continues to push a "higher for longer" theme regarding interest rates, despite inflation already being defeated.
U.S. consumers have significantly reduced their spending over the past six months and plan to continue doing so during the upcoming holiday season, with the majority cutting back on non-essential items and essential items.
Millions of student loan borrowers in the US are facing the challenge of resuming their loan payments after a moratorium, with some borrowers unsure of the due dates and payment amounts. Many are expected to experience financial stress and may need to cut back on spending or explore repayment options such as income-driven plans. The new SAVE plan launched by the Biden administration aims to provide affordable payments, but not all borrowers will see a decrease in their monthly payments.
