Fresh signs of stress in U.S. consumer spending are emerging as retailers like Macy's and Foot Locker lower profit forecasts, indicating that middle-income Americans are spending less due to high living costs and existing card debt.
As student loan payments resume, major retail and food chains in the US are warning investors about a potential slowdown in consumer spending, with retailers like Macy's, Target, and Ulta identified as particularly vulnerable due to their exposure to younger, low-income consumers with student loans.
Macy's warns of a surge in delinquencies on credit card payments, signaling mounting financial stress on consumers.
Major retailers are concerned that the resumption of federal student loan payments in October will decrease profits during the holiday season, as the pause in payments since March 2020 has given Americans more buying power.
Major U.S. department stores like Macy's and Nordstrom are experiencing delays in store credit card repayments, which pose a risk to revenues as consumers reduce discretionary spending ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season.
Despite initial concerns, some malls in America have experienced a recovery from the pandemic-induced decline in consumer activity, with more stores opening than closing in 2022 and an 11% increase in sales, according to a report from Coresight Research. Mall occupancy rates have also increased, and traffic levels have risen, indicating a positive outlook for physical retail.
According to a survey by Jefferies, 50% of consumers in the US plan to spend more on back-to-school shopping this year, with 70% citing inflation as the primary reason for increased spending, particularly on apparel; Walmart's private label business is expected to benefit from this trend.
Retail earnings indicate a slowdown in consumer spending for late 2023, causing investors to be uncertain about the direction of the market and retailers to consider discounting to attract budget-conscious consumers.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
Americans are struggling to pay their bills as inflation rises, leading to a surge in credit card and auto loan defaults, which is expected to worsen with rising interest rates and the expiration of the student loan moratorium. Low- and middle-income earners are particularly affected, resorting to using credit cards for essential purchases, while opening new lines of credit to pay off debts, resulting in record-high credit card debt. The resumption of student loan payments and potential holiday season spending add to concerns about escalating debt levels.
Retail sales in the UK increased by 4.1% in August, with non-food items experiencing the strongest growth due to higher spending on health and beauty, although clothing and footwear sales were weaker; however, the increase in sales was partly driven by rising prices, indicating that consumers are buying fewer items but spending more.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Consumer spending in the US has supported the economy despite concerns of a recession, but rising interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and dwindling savings are predicted to put pressure on consumers and potentially lead to a shrinking of personal consumption.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
The resumption of student loan payments in October could have a substantial impact on consumer spending and the economy, potentially subtracting 0.8 percentage points from consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter and putting pressure on retailers during the crucial holiday shopping season; however, the full extent of the impact remains uncertain due to factors such as income-based repayment programs, the one-year grace period for missed payments, and the potential for borrowers to prioritize other expenses over loan repayments.
US retail sales, excluding automotive, are expected to rise by 3.7% over the holiday shopping season, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels of holiday spending, driven by a more normal inflation environment and consumers' willingness to spend on experiences, electronics, and dining out.
