Main Topic: U.S. consumer confidence increases to a two-year high in July, but mixed signals persist.
Key Points:
1. Consumers remain fearful of a recession due to interest rate hikes.
2. Consumers plan to buy motor vehicles and houses, but fewer anticipate purchasing major household appliances.
3. Consumers intend to spend less on discretionary services but expect to increase spending on healthcare and streaming services.
### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
Despite initial predictions of a recession, the U.S. economy has experienced unexpected growth, with high consumer spending and continued borrowing and investment by businesses being key factors.
The U.S. economy continues to grow above-trend, consumer spending remains strong, and the labor market is tight; however, there are concerns about inflation and rising interest rates which could impact the economy and consumer balance sheets, leading to a gradual softening of the labor market.
The latest results and forecasts from retailers indicate that U.S. consumer spending is under stress due to increased living costs and existing debts, posing challenges for the retail sector during the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
Consumer spending growth is slowing as the economy stabilizes, with consumers prioritizing essential purchases and adjusting their spending habits in response to rising interest rates and financial pressures.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which could lead to softer consumer spending and a decrease in stock market returns. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card addiction pose further uncertainties for the economy. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a contraction and a prolonged recession, which is a stark contrast to its past economic outperformance.
Student loan repayment resuming in the US this fall is expected to have a significant negative impact on the housing market, potentially affecting homeownership rates for at least a year, according to a poll conducted by Pulsenomics.
Millions of Americans may have to prioritize their student loan payments over their retirement savings, as the resumption of student debt repayments poses a challenge for workers already struggling to save for retirement due to inflation and market volatility.
More Americans are struggling to keep up with car loan and credit card payments, particularly lower-income earners, as higher prices and rising borrowing costs put pressure on household budgets, signaling potential consumer stress; the situation is expected to worsen as interest rates continue to rise and paused student loan payments resume.
US consumer spending increased by the most in six months in July, driven by strong demand for goods and services, but slowing inflation rates suggest that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next month.
Consumer spending is driving third-quarter GDP growth, but unsustainable spending habits, tightening lending standards, and the depletion of pandemic savings may lead to a decline in consumer spending in early 2024.
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, as strong labor market, cooling inflation, and consumer savings support economic health and mitigate the risk of a recession, despite the rise in interest rates.
Despite economists' expectations, many student loan borrowers have already resumed making payments before the October deadline, potentially leading to a decline in consumer spending and affecting the economy as households adjust their budgets.
Consumer spending has remained resilient, preventing the US economy from entering a recession, and this trend will likely continue due to low household debt-to-income levels.
The US consumer is predicted to experience a decline in personal consumption in early 2024, which could lead to a potential recession and downside for stocks, as high borrowing costs and dwindling Covid-era savings impact household budgets.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Consumer spending in the US is showing signs of cooling, with retail sales expected to slow down in August, indicating that the resilience of the consumer may be waning due to increased borrowing, depleted savings, and the impact of inflation.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
The US economy shows signs of weakness despite pockets of strength, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and consumer spending facing challenges ahead, such as the restart of student loan payments and the drain on savings from the pandemic.
The resumption of student loan payments in October could have a substantial impact on consumer spending and the economy, potentially subtracting 0.8 percentage points from consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter and putting pressure on retailers during the crucial holiday shopping season; however, the full extent of the impact remains uncertain due to factors such as income-based repayment programs, the one-year grace period for missed payments, and the potential for borrowers to prioritize other expenses over loan repayments.
The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, along with declining consumer savings, tightening lending standards, and increasing loan delinquencies, indicate that the economy is transitioning toward a recession, with the effectiveness of monetary policy being felt with a lag time of 11-12 months. Additionally, the end of the student debt repayment moratorium and a potential government shutdown may further negatively impact the economy. Despite this, the Fed continues to push a "higher for longer" theme regarding interest rates, despite inflation already being defeated.
A drop in savings among Americans and record credit-card debt could have disastrous consequences for the economy if a recession occurs, as data shows personal savings rates remain historically low and many Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
As federal student loan payments are set to resume, surveys indicate that the majority of borrowers plan to cut back on spending and will have difficulty saving for retirement, potentially leading to a drop in consumer spending and impacting economic growth. Some borrowers are already struggling with increased stress and debt from additional financial obligations taken on during the payment pause, while higher-earning households also anticipate difficulties in making payments. While there are options available, such as income-based repayment plans or a one-year grace period, the overall financial strain is expected to have significant repercussions.
Consumer confidence in the US dropped in September, signaling a growing concern among Americans that the economy might be heading towards a recession, as inflation, rising interest rates, and recession fears continue to impact consumers.
The resumption of federal student loan payments in October is expected to have a significant impact on consumer spending, particularly in sectors like apparel, accessories, restaurants, and footwear, according to a survey by Jefferies, with companies like Lululemon, Foot Locker, and Urban Outfitters likely to be most affected. Retailers like Walmart, Costco, and TJX, however, are positioned to weather the downturn by offering cheaper alternatives and value retail options.
The resumption of student loan repayments will lead to a significant decrease in consumer spending, causing a contraction in real consumer spending growth and an increase in student loan delinquency rates, according to Fitch Ratings.
Consumer spending in the US grew at a weaker pace than previously estimated in the second quarter, indicating that Americans have been cutting back on their spending more than expected.
The strength of the US consumer, which has been propping up the economy, is starting to crack due to factors such as student loan payments, soaring gas prices, rising insurance premiums, dwindling personal savings, and potential disruptions like the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown, raising concerns about a possible recession.
Consumer spending remains resilient despite inflation and rising prices, contributing to economic growth, while the risk of a recession in the US has decreased but not disappeared completely.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The US consumer is showing signs of strain due to rising gas prices, high credit card delinquency rates, and the impending restart of student loan payments, leading to concerns about weaker consumer spending and potential credit trouble for heavily indebted companies.
Student loan repayments, which have resumed after a three-year pause, may not cause a recession in the US economy as the debt is concentrated among a small number of households, but it will likely impact consumer spending and potentially slow down economic growth.
Amid economic uncertainty, Americans are saving less, but continuing to spend, which may help the economy avoid a recession; however, many are struggling financially and have little to no savings, relying on credit card debt to make ends meet, and experts recommend building a larger emergency fund to navigate through potential economic contractions.
Consumer spending in Minnesota is slowing down as the economy stabilizes after the COVID-19 pandemic, with a shift from goods to services, and rising prices for essential items like housing and gas impacting consumer behavior.
Consumer spending in the US has been strong, driven by a "YOLO economy," but with looming concerns over a recession, financial advisors recommend reassessing budgets, prioritizing spending, paying down credit card debt, and thinking long-term to achieve financial stability.
The resumption of federal student loan repayments after a pause due to the pandemic could have a significant impact on the US economy, with consumer spending potentially being affected as borrowers face increased financial obligations.
Americans have $1.2 trillion more in excess household savings than previously estimated, which could be good news for the economy as it tries to address inflation and could delay the depletion of savings until next year, according to revised government data.