### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
### Summary
The chief global economist at Piper Sandler has warned that the U.S. economy is set to worsen before improving, and Americans should save money and maintain their savings. Rising everyday prices, declining manufacturing activity, excessive government spending, and a tight labor market are all contributing factors.
### Facts
- Americans are spending $709 more on everyday goods in July compared to two years ago.
- One-third of U.S. households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2021.
- Excessive government spending is blamed for high prices.
- The declining birth rate and closure of maternity wards indicate that Americans are postponing having children.
- Inflation is a major challenge for the economy, and a recession will put pressure on all wealth groups.
- The economist argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Inflation Reduction Act has had a "counterproductive" impact on controlling inflation.
- To see an economic turnaround by 2025, the private sector needs to drive capital spending, while curbing government spending and reforming entitlements is necessary.
- The economist hopes for sustained low inflation and increased labor force participation but emphasizes the need for tough decisions in Washington.
- The economist believes that the U.S. needs to get its fiscal house in order to become a leader in the global economy.
The majority of Americans are unable to pay off their credit card debt in full each month, with 51% of individuals rolling over their balances and accruing interest, according to a survey by J.D. Power. This marks a significant shift from previous years and is attributed to factors such as inflation, dwindling savings, rising interest rates, and increased everyday use of credit cards.
Despite initial predictions of a recession, the U.S. economy has experienced unexpected growth, with high consumer spending and continued borrowing and investment by businesses being key factors.
Despite reaching record levels of total credit card debt and household debt, Americans are actually managing their debt better than in the past due to inflation masking the impact on balances and lower debt-to-deposit levels, according to an analysis by WalletHub. However, the rising trajectory of credit card debt and the increasing number of households carrying balances raise concerns, especially considering the high interest rates, which can take more than 17 years to pay off and cost thousands of dollars in interest. Meanwhile, savers have the opportunity to earn higher returns on cash due to higher inflation and interest rates.
Consumer debt, including auto-loans and credit card balances, is increasing in the United States, but strong government intervention and temporary relief measures have created a cushion of extra cash savings, leading to a positive outcome for Bitcoin (BTC) according to Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which could lead to softer consumer spending and a decrease in stock market returns. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card addiction pose further uncertainties for the economy. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a contraction and a prolonged recession, which is a stark contrast to its past economic outperformance.
Millions of Americans may have to prioritize their student loan payments over their retirement savings, as the resumption of student debt repayments poses a challenge for workers already struggling to save for retirement due to inflation and market volatility.
More Americans are struggling to keep up with car loan and credit card payments, particularly lower-income earners, as higher prices and rising borrowing costs put pressure on household budgets, signaling potential consumer stress; the situation is expected to worsen as interest rates continue to rise and paused student loan payments resume.
Americans facing high prices and interest rates are struggling to repay credit card and auto loans, leading to rising delinquencies and defaults with no immediate relief in sight, particularly for low-income individuals, as analysts expect the situation to worsen before it improves.
Struggling U.S. families relying on credit card loans to cover living expenses may face a spending correction soon, as consumers continue to spend despite rising rates and living costs, leading to potential unsustainable debt levels and limited access to credit.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
The middle class faces distinct challenges that can hinder their journey towards wealth accumulation, including high-cost degrees with limited returns, overextending with unaffordable mortgages, relying on credit cards to bridge budget deficits, falling for get-rich-quick schemes, and succumbing to societal pressure to live extravagantly. By being discerning with education investments, avoiding new car loans, not overcommitting to mortgages, refraining from using credit cards to fill budget gaps, being wary of get-rich-quick schemes, and resisting societal pressure, individuals can better navigate these financial pitfalls and work towards financial stability and wealth.
Consumer spending has remained resilient, preventing the US economy from entering a recession, and this trend will likely continue due to low household debt-to-income levels.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Despite increased household wealth in the US, millions of households are struggling financially due to inflation, high interest rates, and rising living costs, which have led to record levels of debt and limited access to credit.
Consumer spending in the US has supported the economy despite concerns of a recession, but rising interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and dwindling savings are predicted to put pressure on consumers and potentially lead to a shrinking of personal consumption.
Financial security is an important aspect of resilience, and a study found that people in developed economies can cover their basic needs without income for a longer time compared to those in developing economies, where financial security is more tenuous. However, a significant number of people globally struggle financially, with 2.7 billion people being able to cover their needs for a month or less without income. Urgent action is needed to address this disparity and improve financial security.
Almost a third of Americans earning $150,000 a year or more are living paycheck to paycheck and relying on credit cards to cover expenses, indicating an economic divide that is widening among Americans.
Entrepreneur Jaspreet Singh warns that signs of a potential recession in America include labor shortages, inflation-driven spending, and high interest rates, with economists predicting that the country may start feeling the effects of a recession by the second quarter of 2024. Singh advises Americans to educate themselves about saving money and investing to prepare for the possible downturn.
A drop in savings among Americans and record credit-card debt could have disastrous consequences for the economy if a recession occurs, as data shows personal savings rates remain historically low and many Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
A growing number of employers, including Delta Air Lines, Starbucks, Best Buy, and Levi's, are introducing emergency savings benefits to address the savings crisis in the US, allowing employees to build and access emergency cash and avoid high-interest credit cards or hardship withdrawals from retirement accounts.
Many Americans are finding it more difficult to get credit and are resorting to payday loans due to the impact of higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased financial strain for households.
US credit card debt reached $1 trillion for the first time, but experts argue that it is not a cause for concern as factors like income, wealth, spending growth, credit card utilization, and delinquency rates indicate that consumers are in good financial shape unless the US enters a severe recession.
The latest Federal Reserve study reveals that Americans outside the wealthiest 20% have depleted their savings during the pandemic, with cash on hand now lower than pre-pandemic levels, potentially leading to a decline in consumer spending and a potential economic downturn.
The US economy's resilience may be temporary as the trillions in stimulus spending and resulting debts could lead to a long and slow grind, similar to what other nations have experienced, warns Ruchir Sharma.
The U.S. economy is viewed negatively by most Americans despite positive personal financial situations, with concerns about inflation and credit card debt rising; however, the economy remains a top issue for voters in the upcoming presidential election.
The mishandling of inflation, economy, and the federal budget in the United States has resulted in excellent saving and investment opportunities, with higher interest rates on Treasury bonds, CDs, corporate bonds, and annuity rates, benefiting those approaching retirement the most.
The US economy is facing turbulence as inflation rates rise, causing losses in US Treasuries and raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on assets like Bitcoin and the stock market. With additional government debt expected to mature in the next year, there is a fear of financial instability and the potential for severe disruptions in the financial system. The Federal Reserve may continue to support the financial system through emergency credit lines, which could benefit assets like Bitcoin.
The decline in net household financial savings is largely due to the increase in their liabilities, with household financial liabilities rising from 3.8% to 5.8% of GDP in 2022-23, leading to concerns of growing household distress and potential implications for the broader economy.
The US may be at risk of a recession due to factors such as a potential auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, rising oil prices, and a global economic slowdown.
Consumer spending in the US has been strong, driven by a "YOLO economy," but with looming concerns over a recession, financial advisors recommend reassessing budgets, prioritizing spending, paying down credit card debt, and thinking long-term to achieve financial stability.
As the summer expenses start to add up, now is the time to reassess your budget, prioritize spending, and pay down credit card debt to ensure financial stability in the face of potential economic uncertainty.
Americans are holding onto more cash than they need due to recession concerns, but holding cash for the long term means losing out on the rising cost of living, and with high-yield savings accounts available, there's no reason to keep cash in low-interest accounts. Experts recommend having at least 6 to 12 months of emergency funds in cash but advise against hoarding cash and instead suggest exploring higher yielding investment options.
Americans have $1.2 trillion more in excess household savings than previously estimated, which could be good news for the economy as it tries to address inflation and could delay the depletion of savings until next year, according to revised government data.
The high levels of debt, rising interest rates, and growing spending pressures in developed economies are fueling concerns of a financial market crisis, with the United States, Italy, and Britain seen as most at risk, according to economists and investors. Governments must establish credible fiscal plans, raise taxes, and stimulate growth to manage their finances effectively and avoid potential turmoil in the markets.
The depletion of pandemic savings and government aid in the US is leading to financial strain for low- and moderate-income households, potentially putting the nation at risk of recession by early 2024. Americans are cutting back on spending and using loans to make ends meet as stimulus checks and other forms of assistance run out.
The U.S. economy is facing risks in 2024 as inflation remains high and interest rates are historically high, leading to concerns about a potential recession; however, the Federal Reserve is optimistic about achieving a soft landing and maintaining economic growth. Economists are divided on whether the Fed's measures will be effective in avoiding a severe recession, and investors are advised to proceed cautiously in their financial decisions.
Despite predictions of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, many Americans are still preparing for a recession by monitoring spending, limiting discretionary purchases, and considering long-term savings investments, according to surveys. Additionally, some homebuyers are hopeful that a recession will lead to lower home prices and mortgage rates, making it a more opportune time to buy. However, the lack of housing inventory remains a challenge for buyers, with over 60% reporting difficulty in finding suitable homes within their budget range.
The inverted yield curve, which is currently flashing red, is causing concern among economists, as it historically predicts recessions with a delay of around six to twelve months, although it is not fool-proof. Despite the current strong economy, experts suggest recession-proofing one's finances by paying off debt, building up an emergency fund, and investing in recession-proof assets.
Despite rising inflation, the wealthiest Americans are fueling continued strong economic growth through robust spending on luxury goods and experiences, supported by high asset values and increased equity in their homes, while lower- and middle-income families are pulling back due to the depletion of federal stimulus and pandemic savings.
Americans are spending a trillion dollars a year in interest payments on the national debt, causing it to become an economic and national security emergency.
A new report from Bankrate shows that a majority of households feel behind on saving for emergencies, with only 19% increasing their emergency savings balances since the beginning of the year, citing inflation and high household expenses as the main obstacles.
The tightening of financial conditions in the US economy, driven by rising borrowing costs, is starting to have an impact on small and regional banks, potentially leading to a contraction in credit availability and a recession.
Americans are facing difficulty in paying off their debts as savings decline and interest rate hikes increase financing costs, leading to an increase in credit card, mortgage, and autopayment delinquencies.
A majority of Americans are behind on their emergency savings, with 38% significantly behind and only 18% ahead, according to a survey by Bankrate.
