The end of low interest rates has created a divide between savers who benefit from higher rates and borrowers who face challenges with increased loan costs, affecting various sectors including housing, auto loans, and credit cards.
Despite concerns over rising deficits and debt, central banks globally have been buying government debt to combat deflationary forces, which has kept interest rates low and prevented a rise in rates as deficits increase; therefore, the assumption that interest rates must go higher may be incorrect.
Despite reaching record levels of total credit card debt and household debt, Americans are actually managing their debt better than in the past due to inflation masking the impact on balances and lower debt-to-deposit levels, according to an analysis by WalletHub. However, the rising trajectory of credit card debt and the increasing number of households carrying balances raise concerns, especially considering the high interest rates, which can take more than 17 years to pay off and cost thousands of dollars in interest. Meanwhile, savers have the opportunity to earn higher returns on cash due to higher inflation and interest rates.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
A research paper presented at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual central banking symposium concludes that the steep increase in public debt over the past 15 years due to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic is likely irreversible, with governments now needing to live with high debt burdens and implement measures such as spending limits and tax hikes.
The second quarter of 2023 saw a consistent rise in borrowing among Canadians, with subprime borrowers experiencing the highest increase in credit balances due to higher spending habits and elevated interest rates on variable-rate loans. Demand for new credit also grew significantly, leading to a total Canadian household debt of $2.3 trillion.
More Americans are struggling to keep up with car loan and credit card payments, particularly lower-income earners, as higher prices and rising borrowing costs put pressure on household budgets, signaling potential consumer stress; the situation is expected to worsen as interest rates continue to rise and paused student loan payments resume.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2023, driven by consumer spending, while the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates again despite a drop in GDP growth; Americans are increasingly turning to credit cards in a high-interest rate environment, leading to rising credit card debt.
Americans facing high prices and interest rates are struggling to repay credit card and auto loans, leading to rising delinquencies and defaults with no immediate relief in sight, particularly for low-income individuals, as analysts expect the situation to worsen before it improves.
The US economy may face disruption as debts are refinanced at higher interest rates, which could put pressure on both financial institutions and the government, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
The debt of the United States has reached record levels and continues to grow, raising concerns among investment gurus and market minds about its long-term consequences on the economy and financial markets.
The U.S. is currently experiencing a prolonged high inflation cycle that is causing significant damage to the purchasing power of the currency, and the recent lower inflation rate is misleading as it ignores the accumulated harm; in order to combat this cycle, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates higher than the inflation rate and reverse its bond purchases.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains near a key long-term trendline as the U.S. dollar strengthens, with market participants predicting further downside for BTC and altcoins.
The U.S.'s national debt has reached nearly $33 trillion and while debt has its uses, concerns are rising about its impact on the economy, particularly as the debt-to-GDP ratio nears 100%.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Despite increased household wealth in the US, millions of households are struggling financially due to inflation, high interest rates, and rising living costs, which have led to record levels of debt and limited access to credit.
Popular analyst Arthur Hayes argues that traditional economic theories about Bitcoin's relationship with interest rates will fail due to the US government's substantial debt, as inflation may become "sticky" and bond yields may not keep up with GDP growth, leading bondholders to seek higher yielding "risk assets" like Bitcoin.
Consumer spending in the US has supported the economy despite concerns of a recession, but rising interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and dwindling savings are predicted to put pressure on consumers and potentially lead to a shrinking of personal consumption.
The European Central Bank has implemented its 10th consecutive interest rate increase in an attempt to combat high inflation, although there are concerns that higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession; however, the increase may have a negative impact on consumer and business spending, particularly in the real estate market.
US companies have experienced a 176% increase in debt defaults in the first eight months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, with high interest rates pushing businesses into financial distress, particularly in the media and entertainment sector.
Rising interest rates caused by the steepest monetary tightening campaign in a generation are causing financial distress for borrowers worldwide, threatening the survival of businesses and forcing individuals to consider selling assets or cut back on expenses.
China's credit is expanding rapidly, with total social financing increasing by over 3 trillion yuan in August, mainly driven by government financing, indicating positive signs of economic stabilization and recovery from the slump in the second quarter. Additionally, recent policy measures, particularly in fiscal and property sectors, are expected to further stimulate the economy.
Crypto analyst Will Clemente suggests that the US economy's need to issue more dollars to service its debt will inevitably lead to significant currency debasement, making Bitcoin the most promising asset for investors looking to protect their wealth. With the growing digital trend and a wave of Bitcoin adoption, Clemente believes that alternative monetary systems will become increasingly favorable.
