The UK and eurozone economies are at risk of recession due to a significant slowdown in private sector activity, with the UK experiencing its poorest performance since the Covid lockdown and Germany being hit particularly hard; the US is also showing signs of strain, with activity slowing to near-stagnation levels.
A global recession is looming due to rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis, leading economists to warn of a severe downturn in the post-Covid rebound.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which could lead to softer consumer spending and a decrease in stock market returns. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card addiction pose further uncertainties for the economy. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a contraction and a prolonged recession, which is a stark contrast to its past economic outperformance.
The strong U.S. economic growth and potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could pose global risks, potentially leading to a significant tightening of global financial conditions and affecting emerging markets and the rest of the world.
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, as strong labor market, cooling inflation, and consumer savings support economic health and mitigate the risk of a recession, despite the rise in interest rates.
Economist David Rosenberg warns that the US is likely to enter a recession within six months due to the deterioration of credit quality, reminiscent of the 2008 mortgage crisis.
The global economic slowdown and U.S. recession risks are causing concern among officials, with experts discussing recession forecasts and advising investors on portfolio and sector strategies.
Deutsche Bank strategists warn that the U.S. economy has a greater chance of entering a recession within the next year due to high inflation and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike campaign.
The odds of a recession in the US have collapsed, making markets vulnerable to any signs of the economy overheating and contributing to inflationary pressures.
There are indications that a severe economic contraction may be approaching in the US, with a significant decline in home sales and rising interest rates, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone.
The odds of the U.S. entering a recession by mid-2024 have decreased, but certain regions, such as the West and South, are still more vulnerable due to rapid economic growth, high home prices, and inflation, according to Moody's Analytics. However, a severe downturn is unlikely, and the Midwest and Northeast are less susceptible to a pullback. Overall, the chance of a recession has declined nationwide, but there is still a risk for some metro areas, such as Austin, Boise, Ogden, and Tampa.
Negotiations between the United Auto Workers and automakers are nearing a critical point, but even if there is a strike, it is unlikely to cause a recession in the U.S. economy.
The risk of a global recession in the next 12 to 18 months is high, with financial markets underestimating the chances of a recession in the United States, according to PIMCO executives.
The US is facing a potential financial crisis as the national debt reaches $33 trillion and the federal deficit is expected to double, posing a threat to President Biden's government and potential consequences for American citizens.
Potential risks including an autoworkers strike, a possible government shutdown, and the resumption of student loan repayments are posing challenges to the Federal Reserve's goal of controlling inflation without causing a recession. These disruptions could dampen consumer spending, lead to higher car prices, and negatively impact business and consumer confidence, potentially pushing the economy off course.
Entrepreneur Jaspreet Singh warns that signs of a potential recession in America include labor shortages, inflation-driven spending, and high interest rates, with economists predicting that the country may start feeling the effects of a recession by the second quarter of 2024. Singh advises Americans to educate themselves about saving money and investing to prepare for the possible downturn.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
Bearish economist David Rosenberg is sticking to his thesis that the US economy is at serious risk, listing 10 reasons including the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, rising consumer credit delinquency rates, high mortgage rates, and the impact of external factors such as the US auto industry strike and potential government shutdown.
The U.S. economy is experiencing a higher share of working-age people in the workforce than ever before, and despite some inflationary concerns, the country is not at risk of a recession, according to economist Betsey Stevenson.
A drop in savings among Americans and record credit-card debt could have disastrous consequences for the economy if a recession occurs, as data shows personal savings rates remain historically low and many Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
The US economy has triggered the fourth and final signal for a potential recession, and historical data suggests that recessions will become more frequent in the future due to government interventions and other factors such as inflation, tightening monetary policy, oil price spikes, and tight government budgets.
The US economy is currently in decent shape, with a resilient labor market, moderated inflation, and expected strong GDP growth, but there are potential headwinds and uncertainties ahead, including UAW strikes, student debt payments resuming, and the risk of a government shutdown, which could collectively have a significant impact on the economy. Additionally, the labor market is slowing down, inflation remains a concern, and the actions of the Federal Reserve and other factors could influence the economic outlook. While there are reasons for optimism, there are also risks to consider.
The risks of a near-term recession are increasing due to potential government shutdown and strikes in the auto industry, which are weighing on consumer confidence, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Jack Manley.
Deutsche Bank's economists are still predicting a US recession despite the ongoing resilience of the economy, pointing to rapidly rising interest rates, surging inflation, an inverted yield curve, and oil price shocks as the four key triggers that historically have caused recessions and are currently happening.
The strength of the US consumer, which has been propping up the economy, is starting to crack due to factors such as student loan payments, soaring gas prices, rising insurance premiums, dwindling personal savings, and potential disruptions like the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown, raising concerns about a possible recession.
The soft landing scenario for the US economy is in doubt due to five economic shocks, including a potential government shutdown, rising oil prices, a strike by the United Auto Workers, the resumption of student loan payments, and high mortgage rates nearing 8%.
Student loan repayments, which have resumed after a three-year pause, may not cause a recession in the US economy as the debt is concentrated among a small number of households, but it will likely impact consumer spending and potentially slow down economic growth.
The U.S. labor market's strength may be at risk as the Federal Reserve's projected interest rate hikes could lead to a slowdown and increased consumer debt, potentially pushing the economy towards a recession.
Falling bond prices in the US, resulting in higher Treasury yields, suggest that a recession might be approaching, according to investor Jeff Gundlach, who is closely watching the upcoming jobs report for further signs.
The likelihood of the US avoiding a recession has decreased, as two factors, including a surge in interest rates and the potential for resurgent inflation, could push the economy into a downturn, says economist Mohamed El-Erian.
The United States entering a deep recession could negatively impact India's services sector, bond and equity markets, causing a contraction in demand and potentially leading to a deep recession globally, warns economist Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist for Axis Bank and part-time chairperson of the Unique Identification Authority of India. The effects on India could include slower growth in services, a decline in goods exports, dumping of products, and increased volatility in financial markets. Mishra advises India to focus on macroeconomic stability to weather the storm.
A wave of corporate bankruptcies and debt defaults, driven by high interest rates, could potentially push the US economy into a recession, as global corporate defaults reach their highest levels since 2009 and borrowing costs for firms significantly rise.
The chances of the U.S. economy avoiding a recession are improving, with recession odds dropping to 46 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2022, according to economists surveyed by Bankrate. However, risks of a recession remain, with more than 2 in 5 economists suggesting that the chances are still greater than 50 percent.
Economists are predicting that the U.S. economy is less likely to experience a recession in the next year, with the likelihood dropping below 50% for the first time since last year, thanks to factors such as falling inflation, the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, and a strong labor market.
The depletion of pandemic savings and government aid in the US is leading to financial strain for low- and moderate-income households, potentially putting the nation at risk of recession by early 2024. Americans are cutting back on spending and using loans to make ends meet as stimulus checks and other forms of assistance run out.
The U.S. economy is facing risks in 2024 as inflation remains high and interest rates are historically high, leading to concerns about a potential recession; however, the Federal Reserve is optimistic about achieving a soft landing and maintaining economic growth. Economists are divided on whether the Fed's measures will be effective in avoiding a severe recession, and investors are advised to proceed cautiously in their financial decisions.
A recession is expected to hit the US economy in the next nine months due to rising borrowing costs, a tapped out consumer, and ongoing labor strikes, according to Raymond James.
The U.S. economy is experiencing rapid growth, with GDP predicted to exceed 4% in the third quarter, but there are concerns that this may be followed by a recession due to factors such as stagnant incomes, cautious businesses, and economic uncertainties.
The tightening of financial conditions in the US economy, driven by rising borrowing costs, is starting to have an impact on small and regional banks, potentially leading to a contraction in credit availability and a recession.
The US economy is heading towards a recession that is likely to be milder than previous ones, as it is being "engineered" by the Federal Reserve and they have the ability to reverse the measures that slowed growth.
The US economy experienced strong growth in the third quarter of 2023, fueled by consumer spending, but there are warning signs of a possible recession due to the impact of rate hikes on auto loans, credit cards, and student debt, as well as higher borrowing costs and the potential for deeper recession if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.
