The latest results and forecasts from retailers indicate that U.S. consumer spending is under stress due to increased living costs and existing debts, posing challenges for the retail sector during the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
As student loan payments resume, major retail and food chains in the US are warning investors about a potential slowdown in consumer spending, with retailers like Macy's, Target, and Ulta identified as particularly vulnerable due to their exposure to younger, low-income consumers with student loans.
Despite overall solid consumer spending, retail earnings reports indicate a shift towards more cautious shopping habits, with lower-income shoppers feeling economic pressure and opting for essential items and discounts at off-price and discount retailers. Delinquencies on department store credit cards are rising, suggesting a stretched consumer, and retailers are bracing for the impact of the resumption of student loan payments on shoppers' budgets. The upcoming back-to-school season and Halloween will serve as indicators for the rest of the year and the holiday season.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which could lead to softer consumer spending and a decrease in stock market returns. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card addiction pose further uncertainties for the economy. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a contraction and a prolonged recession, which is a stark contrast to its past economic outperformance.
Student loan repayment resuming in the US this fall is expected to have a significant negative impact on the housing market, potentially affecting homeownership rates for at least a year, according to a poll conducted by Pulsenomics.
According to a survey by Jefferies, 50% of consumers in the US plan to spend more on back-to-school shopping this year, with 70% citing inflation as the primary reason for increased spending, particularly on apparel; Walmart's private label business is expected to benefit from this trend.
Summary: September marks the resumption of student loan interest and payments, potentially impacting consumer discretionary stocks and benefiting student loan companies, while biotech investors await news on weight loss drugs that could combat obesity.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
Americans are struggling to pay their bills as inflation rises, leading to a surge in credit card and auto loan defaults, which is expected to worsen with rising interest rates and the expiration of the student loan moratorium. Low- and middle-income earners are particularly affected, resorting to using credit cards for essential purchases, while opening new lines of credit to pay off debts, resulting in record-high credit card debt. The resumption of student loan payments and potential holiday season spending add to concerns about escalating debt levels.
Despite economists' expectations, many student loan borrowers have already resumed making payments before the October deadline, potentially leading to a decline in consumer spending and affecting the economy as households adjust their budgets.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Consumer spending in the US has supported the economy despite concerns of a recession, but rising interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and dwindling savings are predicted to put pressure on consumers and potentially lead to a shrinking of personal consumption.
The resumption of student loan payments in October will add to the financial burden of Gen Z and millennial Americans looking to buy a home, further squeezing their ability to afford housing.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
Potential risks including an autoworkers strike, a possible government shutdown, and the resumption of student loan repayments are posing challenges to the Federal Reserve's goal of controlling inflation without causing a recession. These disruptions could dampen consumer spending, lead to higher car prices, and negatively impact business and consumer confidence, potentially pushing the economy off course.
The resumption of student loan payments in October is expected to negatively impact American economic growth and could harm borrowers and the wider economy alike, with economists predicting a potential disruption to the growing economy and a reduction in consumer spending.
Millions of student loan borrowers in the US are facing the challenge of resuming their loan payments after a moratorium, with some borrowers unsure of the due dates and payment amounts. Many are expected to experience financial stress and may need to cut back on spending or explore repayment options such as income-driven plans. The new SAVE plan launched by the Biden administration aims to provide affordable payments, but not all borrowers will see a decrease in their monthly payments.
Some federal student loan borrowers may have their payment due dates extended to November or December based on factors like their last payment before the pause, and recent graduates may get more time if they're still in their grace period.
The looming government shutdown may disrupt the return of student loan payments on October 1, as loan servicers struggle to handle the influx of borrowers seeking assistance.
Federal student loan payments are set to resume, causing many Minnesotans to reassess their finances after a three-year pause during the pandemic, with $27 billion in federal student loan debt held by over 800,000 residents of Minnesota.
Tens of millions of Americans will resume making student loan payments in October after a pandemic-related pause, with decisions to be made regarding repayment options and potential government shutdown complications.
Approximately 7 million federal student loan borrowers, many of whom have never made a payment before, will have to start repaying their loans in October, and there are several key steps they should take to navigate the process successfully, including updating their contact information and exploring repayment plan options.
Millions of student-loan borrowers are facing the resumption of monthly payments, but there are options for those who can't afford it, though falling behind on payments could lead to severe consequences.
The resumption of student loan repayments will lead to a significant decrease in consumer spending, causing a contraction in real consumer spending growth and an increase in student loan delinquency rates, according to Fitch Ratings.
Paused student loan payments have contributed to an improvement in Americans' credit scores, but as payments are set to resume next month, borrowers may face financial challenges and a potential impact on their credit scores.
The end of the freeze on federal student loan payments in October is expected to negatively impact the U.S. housing market, with economists predicting a lasting effect on homeownership rates for at least a year and potentially longer. The resumption of payments is also anticipated to increase delinquency rates and further worsen the housing affordability crisis caused by high mortgage rates and a shortage of available homes.
Student loan repayments, which have resumed after a three-year pause, may not cause a recession in the US economy as the debt is concentrated among a small number of households, but it will likely impact consumer spending and potentially slow down economic growth.
Summing up the text, the resumption of student loan repayments is expected to benefit stocks of companies in the student loan refinance business and discount retailers like Walmart and Costco, while it could have a negative impact on restaurant stocks, consumer discretionary stocks like Apple and Amazon, and discount brokerage Robinhood.
The resumption of federal student loan repayments after a pause due to the pandemic could have a significant impact on the US economy, with consumer spending potentially being affected as borrowers face increased financial obligations.
The resumption of student loan payments in the US raises concerns about the financial vulnerability of borrowers, although the Biden administration's SAVE plan is expected to alleviate some of the burden by offering more generous repayment options. Black borrowers, who already have larger outstanding debts on average, face additional challenges in paying down their loans due to earning disparities in the labor market. The growth of student loan debt has slowed during the payment pause, but it remains to be seen how it will change once the pause ends.
The resumption of federal student-loan payments is not expected to significantly impact the economy, but certain groups of borrowers may struggle to make payments or repay other loans, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Borrowers may have already adjusted their spending patterns, and new repayment plans and the use of savings may mitigate the impact. However, there is a risk of delinquency and default, with certain groups, such as women and low-income borrowers, being more vulnerable. The Biden administration's SAVE plan could help some borrowers, but successful enrollment is crucial.
Household budgets in the U.S. are expected to continue supporting high levels of spending, with homeowners benefiting from mortgage refinancing during the pandemic and people with student loans planning to reduce spending by only $56 per month on average after payments resume. However, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans have increased, and some borrowers anticipate missing loan payments.
