The U.S. economy continues to grow above-trend, consumer spending remains strong, and the labor market is tight; however, there are concerns about inflation and rising interest rates which could impact the economy and consumer balance sheets, leading to a gradual softening of the labor market.
The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
New hires are experiencing declining wages in various sectors such as technology and transportation, which could impact job hopping and take time to reflect in federal data, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in managing inflation.
The Bank of Canada may shift its focus from the output gap to labor market indicators, such as unemployment and wages, in order to make inflation forecasts and guide its interest rate decisions, according to a report by CIBC economists. The report suggests that the labor market has become a more reliable indicator of excess demand or supply, and forecasts that if the job market outlook suggests it's not necessary, there may be no more rate hikes this year and rate cuts in early 2024.
Employment growth in the US likely cooled and wage increases moderated in August, reducing the urgency for another interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and tempering inflation risks.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which may lead to softer consumer spending and sideways movement in the stock market for the rest of the year, according to experts. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card debt could further dampen consumer spending. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a recession, with falling output and sticky inflation contributing to its contraction this year, making it the only advanced economy to shrink.
The number of job openings in the US fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, indicating a slowing economy, with declines seen in professional and business services, healthcare, and state and local government sectors, while the information industry and transportation saw increases in job openings. Additionally, consumer confidence dipped in August as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gas and groceries, and home prices continued to increase in June.
The US labor market shows signs of easing as job openings decline for the third consecutive month, worker quits decrease, and layoffs increase, indicating a more balanced state, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. job openings reach lowest level in nearly 2.5 years in July, signaling a slowdown in the labor market and potential impact on interest rates.
The rate of people quitting their jobs has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a decline in workers' advantage and a cooling labor market influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which have led to worsening job prospects and decreased consumer confidence.
The US jobs data for July suggests a cooling employment market, with a drop in labor demand and easing of hiring conditions, which could help lower inflation without a significant rise in unemployment rates.
The U.S. jobs market shows signs of cooling as Labor Day approaches, giving investors relief from concerns about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike. However, global market rally and uncertainty around China's market rebound indicate that risks still persist.
Job creation in the United States slowed more than expected in August, a sign that the resilient economy might be starting to ease under pressure from higher interest rates.
US consumer spending increased by the most in six months in July, driven by strong demand for goods and services, but slowing inflation rates suggest that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next month.
Job openings and layoffs decreased in July, indicating a return to pre-pandemic labor market patterns, with economists attributing the drop to a decline in turnover rather than contraction.
The August jobs report is highly anticipated as investors assess the health of the labor market amidst rising interest rates and inflation, with projections indicating an increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but potential disruptions from ongoing strikes and bankruptcies could affect the data. The report is closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of labor market softening as they grapple with inflation, and while the labor market has remained tight, there are indications of a gradual slowdown. Job openings have decreased, along with resignations, pointing to a labor market that is cooling.
U.S. job growth likely slowed in August due to factors such as striking actors and a major trucking company bankruptcy, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain low; economists caution against overreacting and advise focusing on long-term trends.
British factories in August experienced their weakest month since the start of the COVID-19 crisis due to shrinking orders caused by rising interest rates, according to a survey, resulting in a decline in purchasing activity, inventory holdings, and staffing levels. However, the slowdown in domestic and export demand has alleviated inflation pressures, potentially leading to a decrease in goods price inflation. With the economy showing signs of a slowdown, the Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the 15th consecutive time, despite concerns that it may lead to a recession.
US job growth picked up in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% and wage gains moderated, signaling a slowing labor market and reducing expectations for a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The US job market is cooling down, with signs of weakening and a slowdown in momentum, which may allow the Federal Reserve to ease inflation pressure through weaker job creation and reduced demand.
U.S. manufactured goods orders experienced a significant 2.1% decline in July, the first drop in four months, due in part to higher interest rates impacting business equipment spending.
U.S. economic growth was modest in July and August, with slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, indicating that the Federal Reserve may be close to finishing its interest rate increases.
The US job market remains resilient despite lower-than-expected job growth in July, with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.5% and more Americans entering the job market, easing pressure on employers to raise wages.
Inflation has decreased significantly in recent months, but the role of the Federal Reserve in this decline is questionable as there is little evidence to suggest that higher interest rates led to lower prices and curtailed demand or employment. Other factors such as falling energy prices and the healing of disrupted supply chains appear to have had a larger impact on slowing inflation.
Wage gains for job-switchers in the US have dropped to just barely higher than those who stay in their current role, indicating that job-hopping is slowing down as the labor market slows overall.
A prolonged strike by the United Auto Workers, along with other factors such as higher oil prices and rebounding medical costs, could lead to an unexpected inflation surprise in the fourth quarter and potentially keep the Fed from making interest-rate cuts, according to analysts.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
Consumer sentiment in the US fell for the second month in a row in September, reflecting concerns about the economy, even though Americans believe that inflation will continue to slow.
The labor markets are expected to pause on rate changes as the economy slows down, with growth in employment and capital expenditure decreasing and downside risks increasing, such as higher interest payments for the government and a potential United Auto Workers strike. However, there is hope for a rebound in 2024 with a potential pause in rate cuts and moderating inflation.
American workers are facing a decline in median annual household income due to high inflation, with 17 states experiencing a decrease while only five saw an increase, according to data from the Census Bureau. The labor market remains challenging, with wages rising but not enough to keep up with inflation.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in September while leaving the door open for possible rate hikes in the future, as it tackles inflation and assesses the health of the economy.
Following the European Central Bank's record high interest rate hike to 4%, there is speculation about how long rates will remain at this level, with analysts predicting a 12-month pause before any cuts are made, while also considering the impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations in Europe and the US. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in September, but there are divided opinions on whether another hike will be delivered this year, with markets anticipating rate cuts in 2024. Similarly, the Bank of England is anticipated to make one final hike in September as it assesses inflation and economic indicators.
The Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates until inflation decreases, even if it means more people losing their jobs, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged but projects one more rate hike this year, causing stock markets to slump and Treasury yields to rise; Instacart shares drop, Klaviyo shares rise, and the Writers Guild of America hopes to end a five-month-long strike in Hollywood; CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warns of the "problematic" impact of the recent oil spike on the economy, potentially leading to another interest rate hike by the end of the year; despite concerns, the Fed highlights strong economic growth forecasts and suggests the possibility of the US economy continuing to run hotter than anticipated.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
The possibility of a last hike in 2023 with the pause in interest rates in September may lead to the tightening and financial conditions that were not seen earlier when the Fed was raising rates faster.
The panel discusses the upcoming Fed comments, the market's expectation of no further rate hikes in September, and the impact of high interest rates on jobs, wages, and consumer spending.
