Main Topic: U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's efforts to control it.
Key Points:
1. U.S. inflation has declined for 12 straight months, but consumer prices increased 3% year-on-year in June.
2. The Federal Reserve aims to reduce inflation to about 2% and plans to raise its key federal funds rate to over 5%.
3. The Fed is concerned about high inflation due to a strong labor market, rising wages, and increased consumer spending, and aims to slow the job market to control inflation.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester believes that beating inflation will require one more interest-rate hike and then a temporary pause, stating that rate cuts may not begin in late 2024 as previously thought.
The number of job vacancies in the US dropped in July, indicating a cooling labor market that could alleviate inflation, while fewer Americans quit their jobs and consumer confidence in the economy decreased, potentially impacting consumer spending; these trends may lead the Federal Reserve to delay a rate hike in September.
GM, Ford, and Tesla are expected to face rising labor costs, whether or not a strike occurs as the United Auto Workers' labor deal with the Detroit-Three automakers nears its expiration.
Inflation has decreased significantly in recent months, but the role of the Federal Reserve in this decline is questionable as there is little evidence to suggest that higher interest rates led to lower prices and curtailed demand or employment. Other factors such as falling energy prices and the healing of disrupted supply chains appear to have had a larger impact on slowing inflation.
Uncertainty in various sectors, including potential strikes, government shutdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the question of future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, is causing markets to lack conviction, but this week's inflation readings could provide direction for the markets. If inflation comes in below expectations, it may signal that the Fed will not hike rates further, while stronger-than-expected inflation could lead to more rate hikes and market volatility. Additionally, increasing energy prices and the potential strike by the United Auto Workers union add to the uncertainty.
A potential strike by the United Auto Workers could have wide-ranging economic impacts, including higher car prices and job losses at suppliers, with a prolonged strike even potentially pushing the economy toward a recession.
With labor contracts set to expire at major US automakers, targeted strikes by autoworkers could disrupt production and potentially lead to a historic strike at General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, highlighting the future of manufacturing jobs in America while impacting the local and national economies.
The United Auto Workers are preparing for a possible strike against Detroit's Big Three automakers as the deadline for a new labor agreement approaches, which could have significant economic consequences and impact car prices.
Investors shouldn't be worried about the impact of the strikes by United Auto Workers on Ford, GM, and Stellantis, as the lack of a significant reaction in stock prices suggests that the strikes have not been priced in and the market doesn't expect them to have a lasting impact on the economy.
The labor markets are expected to pause on rate changes as the economy slows down, with growth in employment and capital expenditure decreasing and downside risks increasing, such as higher interest payments for the government and a potential United Auto Workers strike. However, there is hope for a rebound in 2024 with a potential pause in rate cuts and moderating inflation.
Gas prices have been rising in the US due to drilling restrictions imposed by OPEC, with California having the highest prices; automotive workers in the US, represented by the UAW union, have initiated a large-scale strike against General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis; President Biden believes that auto companies haven't fairly shared their record profits with workers; Senator Sanders supports the strike as a fight for better conditions for the working class; the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss interest rate changes, with the current rate standing at 5.33 percent.
Gas prices drive up US inflation rate, reaching 3.7% in August, while excluding volatile components shows a favorable trend in core inflation; Tesla rallies following an upgrade by Morgan Stanley, Qualcomm secures a deal with Apple, and ARM Holdings PLC debuts with the largest IPO of the year; United Auto Workers strike against Detroit automakers; upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting and corporate earnings reports are in focus for the week ahead.
Potential risks including an autoworkers strike, a possible government shutdown, and the resumption of student loan repayments are posing challenges to the Federal Reserve's goal of controlling inflation without causing a recession. These disruptions could dampen consumer spending, lead to higher car prices, and negatively impact business and consumer confidence, potentially pushing the economy off course.
The auto workers' strike, although currently limited in its impact, could have significant growth implications if it expands and persists, potentially causing a 1.7 percentage point quarterly hit to GDP and complicating policymaking for the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of bringing down inflation to its target of 2 percent, with differing opinions on whether they will continue to raise interest rates or pause due to weakening economic indicators such as drops in mortgage rates and auto sales.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says it's too early to determine the impact of the ongoing autoworkers strike on the US economy, highlighting the need to assess the duration and scope of the strike, as negotiations continue between the United Auto Workers and the Big Three automakers.
Wall Street fears that the Federal Reserve will push out the timing for rate cuts next year, sparking concerns of a hawkish pause and increasing selling pressure, despite a trend of rapid disinflation and the potential for a higher neutral interest rate.
The United Auto Workers' targeted strikes have a limited current impact on the U.S. economy, but the possibility of a full walkout could have significant economic costs for auto giants Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis.
The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged but projects one more rate hike this year, causing stock markets to slump and Treasury yields to rise; Instacart shares drop, Klaviyo shares rise, and the Writers Guild of America hopes to end a five-month-long strike in Hollywood; CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warns of the "problematic" impact of the recent oil spike on the economy, potentially leading to another interest rate hike by the end of the year; despite concerns, the Fed highlights strong economic growth forecasts and suggests the possibility of the US economy continuing to run hotter than anticipated.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while revising its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation, indicating a "higher for longer" stance on interest rates and potentially only one more rate hike this year. The Fed aims to achieve a soft landing for the economy and believes it can withstand higher rates, but external complications such as rising oil prices and an auto strike could influence future decisions.
The Federal Reserve's revision to its monetary policy, reducing future rate cuts and indicating a commitment to tackling inflation, caused shockwaves in the financial markets, leading to a decline in gold prices.
High inflation continues to pose challenges for central banks in Europe as some opt to pause interest rate hikes after nearly two years, leading to speculation on how long rates will remain at current levels and how to balance slowing economies, persistent inflationary pressures, and the delayed impact of rate hikes.
Despite predictions of higher unemployment and dire consequences, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have succeeded in substantially slowing inflation without causing significant harm to the job market and economy.
The U.S. economy is expected to face challenges in the fourth quarter, including a potential shutdown, strikes, and persistent inflation, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Financial markets are betting on more rate cuts next year than what Federal Reserve policymakers believe is likely, which may complicate the Fed's efforts to control inflation.
A government shutdown in the US may cause the Federal Reserve to delay an interest rate hike and could impact the recent strength of the dollar, analysts have warned. The shutdown could also lead to a delay in key inflation data, which would affect Fed policy decisions, and may put pressure on consumer spending.
Inflation is expected to rebound in 2024 due to a mismatch between supply and demand created by the shift from services to goods during the pandemic, as well as a chronic shortage of workers, according to BlackRock strategists. This could lead to higher interest rates and a higher risk of recession.
The United Auto Workers' phased strike strategy against the Detroit Three automakers is causing job losses and economic risks that will continue to escalate if more factories and facilities join the strike, potentially leading to a negative fourth quarter for the US economy.
The United States is expected to add 170,000 jobs in September, which would mark the fourth consecutive month with an increase below 200,000, potentially exacerbating the labor shortage and making it difficult for the Fed to control inflation. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall slightly to 3.7%, while wage growth is expected to rise 0.3%. The impact of labor-union strikes, such as the expanded strike by auto workers, could also affect employment growth.
The ongoing strikes in the U.S., including those in the entertainment industry and by the United Auto Workers, are causing significant economic losses and have raised concerns about a potential recession, with estimates suggesting damages of up to $10 billion and fears of reduced productivity, spending, and hiring.
Federal Reserve officials are not concerned about the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and believe it could actually be beneficial in combating inflation. They also stated that if the labor market cools and inflation returns to the desired target, interest rates can remain steady. Higher long-term borrowing costs can slow the economy and ease inflation pressures. However, if the rise in yields leads to a sharp economic slowdown or unemployment surge, the Fed will react accordingly.
