Main Topic: U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's efforts to control it.
Key Points:
1. U.S. inflation has declined for 12 straight months, but consumer prices increased 3% year-on-year in June.
2. The Federal Reserve aims to reduce inflation to about 2% and plans to raise its key federal funds rate to over 5%.
3. The Fed is concerned about high inflation due to a strong labor market, rising wages, and increased consumer spending, and aims to slow the job market to control inflation.
### Summary
The chief global economist at Piper Sandler has warned that the U.S. economy is set to worsen before improving, and Americans should save money and maintain their savings. Rising everyday prices, declining manufacturing activity, excessive government spending, and a tight labor market are all contributing factors.
### Facts
- Americans are spending $709 more on everyday goods in July compared to two years ago.
- One-third of U.S. households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2021.
- Excessive government spending is blamed for high prices.
- The declining birth rate and closure of maternity wards indicate that Americans are postponing having children.
- Inflation is a major challenge for the economy, and a recession will put pressure on all wealth groups.
- The economist argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Inflation Reduction Act has had a "counterproductive" impact on controlling inflation.
- To see an economic turnaround by 2025, the private sector needs to drive capital spending, while curbing government spending and reforming entitlements is necessary.
- The economist hopes for sustained low inflation and increased labor force participation but emphasizes the need for tough decisions in Washington.
- The economist believes that the U.S. needs to get its fiscal house in order to become a leader in the global economy.
The US economy is in an overheated state, with declining manufacturing activity, high everyday prices, and a tight labor market, causing Americans to feel a significant cost of living crunch and prompting a warning that they should "hunker down" and be cautious with their finances, according to global economist Nancy Lazar. Excessive government spending is blamed for the high prices, and an impending recession is expected to add further pressure on all wealth groups. To achieve economic recovery, Lazar emphasizes the importance of private sector-driven growth and the need for reduced government spending and entitlement reform.
The U.S. economy continues to grow above-trend, consumer spending remains strong, and the labor market is tight; however, there are concerns about inflation and rising interest rates which could impact the economy and consumer balance sheets, leading to a gradual softening of the labor market.
US payroll growth in the year through March may have been weaker than originally reported, with estimates suggesting there were 500,000 fewer jobs than previously stated, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's decision on further rate hikes.
Inflation is causing a decline in affordability for average working individuals, with prices on everyday necessities such as groceries, gasoline, and housing rising significantly in the past two years due to government spending and the Fed's money-printing.
New hires are experiencing declining wages in various sectors such as technology and transportation, which could impact job hopping and take time to reflect in federal data, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in managing inflation.
The US economy is growing rapidly with favorable conditions for workers, but despite this, many Americans feel pessimistic about the economy due to inflation and high prices, which are driven by complex global forces and not solely under the control of President Biden or Trump. Housing affordability is also a major concern. However, the Biden administration can still tout the economic recovery, with low unemployment and strong economic growth forecasts.
The US economy is expected to slow in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which may lead to softer consumer spending and sideways movement in the stock market for the rest of the year, according to experts. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments in October and the American consumer's credit card debt could further dampen consumer spending. Meanwhile, Germany's economy is facing a recession, with falling output and sticky inflation contributing to its contraction this year, making it the only advanced economy to shrink.
The number of job openings in the US fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, indicating a slowing economy, with declines seen in professional and business services, healthcare, and state and local government sectors, while the information industry and transportation saw increases in job openings. Additionally, consumer confidence dipped in August as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gas and groceries, and home prices continued to increase in June.
The number of open jobs in the US dropped to its lowest level in over two years in July, signaling a slowdown in the labor market, with economists expecting a further decrease in labor demand and a possible response from the Federal Reserve.
The number of job vacancies in the US dropped in July, indicating a cooling labor market that could alleviate inflation, while fewer Americans quit their jobs and consumer confidence in the economy decreased, potentially impacting consumer spending; these trends may lead the Federal Reserve to delay a rate hike in September.
The US jobs data for July suggests a cooling employment market, with a drop in labor demand and easing of hiring conditions, which could help lower inflation without a significant rise in unemployment rates.
Job creation in the US slowed in August, indicating that the strong economy could be starting to weaken under pressure from higher interest rates. Private employers added 177,000 jobs, well below the previous month's total of 371,000. Pay growth also slowed, suggesting more sustainable growth as the effects of the pandemic recede. Investors and economists remain uncertain about the future of US inflation and whether the economy can continue to grow without a significant slowdown.
U.S. job growth likely slowed in August due to factors such as striking actors and a major trucking company bankruptcy, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain low; economists caution against overreacting and advise focusing on long-term trends.
US inflation remains too high despite recent improvements, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who also states that the labor market is still strong.
Despite the cooling inflation rate, the cost of goods and services in the United States has significantly increased, making it more expensive for the majority of workers to live, which contributes to their unhappiness about the economy.
Wage gains for job-switchers in the US have dropped to just barely higher than those who stay in their current role, indicating that job-hopping is slowing down as the labor market slows overall.
US inflation has slowed over the past year and wages are not a reliable indicator of future price increases, according to Federal Reserve officials.
There are indications that a severe economic contraction may be approaching in the US, with a significant decline in home sales and rising interest rates, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone.
Despite increased household wealth in the US, millions of households are struggling financially due to inflation, high interest rates, and rising living costs, which have led to record levels of debt and limited access to credit.
US household income fell by the most in over a decade in 2022, showing the impact of rising costs and the expiration of pandemic relief programs, with the median income dropping 2.3% and marking the third consecutive annual decline, contributing to concerns about the financial well-being of American families.
The US economy shows signs of weakness despite pockets of strength, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and consumer spending facing challenges ahead, such as the restart of student loan payments and the drain on savings from the pandemic.
US inflation is expected to continue its slowdown in the coming months due to easing car prices, declining rents, and a potential slowdown in the job market.
Despite assurances from policymakers and economists, inflation in the US continues to rise, posing significant challenges to the economy and financial stability.
Americans are facing persistent inflation and a high cost of living, but elite economists and academics are disconnected from the reality and dismissive of the struggles of everyday Americans.
The number of job layoffs in the U.S. remains near a record low despite rising interest rates and high inflation.
The U.S. economy is experiencing a higher share of working-age people in the workforce than ever before, and despite some inflationary concerns, the country is not at risk of a recession, according to economist Betsey Stevenson.
A Bank of America survey reveals that 67% of American workers believe that the cost of living is rising faster than their wages, leading to increased financial stress despite the easing of inflation.
The Federal Reserve's forecast for the U.S. economy shows that while inflation and unemployment are close to their goals, economic growth will remain weak, primarily due to low labor productivity.
Approximately 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, facing financial challenges due to high inflation, higher interest rates, and stagnant wage growth.
Consumer spending in the US grew at a weaker pace than previously estimated in the second quarter, indicating that Americans have been cutting back on their spending more than expected.
The U.S. economy is facing challenges from multiple sources, including a government shutdown, labor and energy pressures, and the possibility of a recession, with rate hiking cycles that start with elevated inflation tending to end in a recession.
Inflation is impacting Americans across the country, with the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area experiencing the highest increase in consumer prices at 7.8%, followed by Denver, Atlanta, Seattle, and Detroit, according to WalletHub. Housing prices are a major driver of high inflation in cities like Miami, and while experts anticipate a gradual cool-down of prices, patience is needed.
The share of US adults with decreasing incomes has increased, indicating a cooling labor market, with high- and middle-income households and the West region being most affected, according to a survey by Morning Consult.
The US economy added 89,000 private-sector jobs in September, falling well below expectations of 160,000 jobs, indicating some labor market weakness despite other signs of strength.
The United States is expected to add 170,000 jobs in September, which would mark the fourth consecutive month with an increase below 200,000, potentially exacerbating the labor shortage and making it difficult for the Fed to control inflation. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall slightly to 3.7%, while wage growth is expected to rise 0.3%. The impact of labor-union strikes, such as the expanded strike by auto workers, could also affect employment growth.
U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed in September, but the unemployment rate likely decreased from a 1-1/2-year high, indicating the underlying strength of the economy; wage gains are also expected to remain elevated.
The September jobs report shows a robust job market, but rising inflation and slow wage growth are making Americans feel worse about the economy.
The cost of living in major U.S. cities exceeds the mean annual wage, highlighting the financial challenges faced by many households and the prevalence of poverty in the country.
More than half of Americans are struggling to pay their bills as high costs, inflation, and stagnant or declining incomes continue to make consumers angry and dissatisfied.
The rapid decline of US inflation may not last due to potential upside risks in categories like used cars and airfares, raising concerns about whether price pressures in services components such as housing can slow down enough to sustain the downward trend.
The majority of American consumers are cutting back on both essential and non-essential items in response to inflation, with 92% reducing their spending, particularly on clothing, restaurants and bars, and entertainment outings; however, despite this, household spending in the US has actually increased by 5.5% compared to last year.
Persistently high inflation in the US has led to a 7% decrease in consumer sentiment in October, with concerns over inflation impacting personal finances and expectations for future inflation rising to 3.8%.
American families are facing a variety of financial challenges, including inflation, high costs of living, and increasing mortgage rates, which are making it difficult for young families to buy homes; in addition, sudden job loss can lead to a financial doom spiral.
