China's fiscal revenue increased by 11.5% in the first seven months of 2023, but the growth rate was slower than the previous six months, indicating a potential decline in the economy's momentum.
China's property market is seeing strong sales and rising rents, indicating a continuing demand for housing that pessimists are missing, according to veteran economist Hong Hao.
China's economic challenges, including deflationary pressures and a slowdown in various sectors such as real estate, are likely to have a global impact and may continue to depress inflation in both China and other markets, with discounting expected to increase in the coming quarters.
Americans continued to spend on dining out despite concerns about recession and inflation, with retail sales at restaurants and bars increasing by 11.8% in July and 9.5% in June compared to the same period last year, according to the Commerce Department. The strong consumer spending in this sector is seen as a positive sign for the economy and has been reflected in the earnings growth of restaurant companies.
China faces challenges in rebalancing its economy towards increased consumer spending due to the economic growth model that relies heavily on investment in property, infrastructure, and industry, as well as the reluctance of households to spend and the limited social safety net; implementing demand-side measures would require difficult decisions and potential short-term pain for businesses and the government sector.
China is implementing measures to boost household spending, ease property policies, increase car purchases, improve conditions for private businesses, and bolster financial markets in an effort to revive the economy's recovery and improve the business environment.
Australian retail sales rebounded in July, but the annual rate slowed, indicating that high borrowing costs are slowing consumer spending and not affecting the outlook for interest rates.
China's economy is struggling due to an imbalance between investments and consumption, resulting in increased debt and limited household spending, and without a shift towards consumption and increased policy measures, the economic slowdown may have profound consequences for China and the world.
Costco stores in China are experiencing high foot traffic and strong sales, contrasting with slower retail sales growth in the country, as foreign brands continue to expand and target the premium market. However, economic uncertainty and a decline in ad spending raise concerns about China's future growth.
Consumer spending in the US jumped 0.8% in July, the strongest monthly gain since January, driven by purchases of restaurants, live shows, toys, games, and recreational equipment; however, underlying data suggests that this spending may be on borrowed time.
Chinese consumer spending has rebounded in certain sectors, but concerns persist over the property market and GDP growth falling below 5%, according to Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book.
Chinese factory activity unexpectedly grew in August, fueled by improving local demand and an increase in new orders, although the Chinese economy still faces challenges due to weak external demand and a potential real estate crisis.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
Tesla was able to boost its sales in China by 9.3% in August, thanks to price cuts.
China's relief measures to support the property sector have spurred a home-buying spree in Beijing and Shanghai, with transaction volumes in both cities increasing significantly, indicating robust housing demand; however, concerns persist that this demand may not be sustained due to other restrictions and a faltering growth outlook.
British consumer spending growth slowed in August, despite a surge in cinema takings after the release of films like "Barbie", with spending on essentials such as food and fuel growing at its slowest rate since April 2020, pointing to a weakening economy.
China's services activity expanded at its slowest pace in eight months in August, as weak demand and stimulus measures failed to revive consumption, according to a private-sector survey.
China's services sector experienced a slowdown in business activity, resulting in the lowest level in eight months, as weaker foreign demand and sluggish overseas orders impacted consumption, despite economic stimulus efforts.
The U.S. economy experienced modest growth in July and August, driven by pent-up demand for leisure activities, while nonessential retail sales slowed, according to the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey.
China's economic growth has slowed but has not collapsed, and while there are concerns about financial risks and a potential property crisis, there are also bright spots such as the growth of the new energy and technology sectors that could boost the economy.
China's imports and exports experienced a monthly decline in August, with exports falling by 8.8% and imports falling by 7.3%, indicating ongoing challenges despite some slight improvement.
China's measures to support the property sector, such as lowering mortgage rates, have limited impact on consumer spending due to the dire economic outlook and lack of longer-term reforms, highlighting the need for resources to be transferred to consumers from other sectors of the economy.
China's new yuan loans are expected to rebound in August after a decline in July, as the central bank implements measures to support economic growth during soft domestic and international demand.
China's passenger vehicle sales experienced growth in August, driven by discounts and tax breaks on environmentally friendly and electric cars, despite a weak economy, and Tesla's share of the Chinese electric vehicle market nearly doubled.
China's consumer price index rebounded in August after slipping into deflation in July, indicating a post-Covid economic recovery, despite sluggish domestic consumption and concerns of a relapse into deflation in the coming months.
China's consumer prices rose slightly and the decline in factory-gate prices slowed in August, indicating easing deflation pressures and signs of stabilization in the economy, although more policy support is needed to boost consumer demand.
China's consumer prices returned to positive territory in August as deflation pressures ease, but analysts warn that more policy support is needed to boost consumer demand in the economy.
China is showing signs of a balance-sheet recession similar to Japan's, with accumulating debt and falling house prices, but there are key differences that suggest it may not face the same fate. State-owned enterprises and property developers account for much of China's debt, and households have low debt relative to their assets. However, the Chinese government's reluctance to increase spending could prolong the recession.
New home sales in Beijing have increased by 16.9% in the week of September 4-10, indicating that government efforts to revive the property sector are having an impact in the Chinese capital. However, the rebound in sales is not reflected across the rest of China, with sales falling 20% on average nationwide.
China's consumer prices returned to positive territory in August, increasing by 0.1% from a year earlier, while producer prices fell for the 11th consecutive month; analysts expect consumer prices to recover and services inflation to pick up as energy prices stabilize and the output gap narrows.
Consumer spending in the US is showing signs of cooling, with retail sales expected to slow down in August, indicating that the resilience of the consumer may be waning due to increased borrowing, depleted savings, and the impact of inflation.
The struggling real estate sector in China, due to a current crisis and government regulations, is impacting consumer spending and causing Chinese tourists to be slow in returning to international travel. As Chinese homeowners prioritize savings and cut back on spending, global tourism destinations are experiencing a decline in Chinese visitors, resulting in a forecasted decrease of nearly 70% in China's outbound travel spending this year.
Retail sales in the US remained resilient in August, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase, surpassing expectations of 0.2%, indicating a positive trend for the economy.
China's retail sales and industrial production exceeded expectations in August, with retail sales growing by 4.6% and industrial production growing by 4.5%, but fixed asset investment lagging behind at 3.2%, indicating potential instability in the external environment.
China's factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August, but declining investment in the property sector poses a threat to the country's economic recovery.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
Economic activity in China appears to improve in August as industrial production and retail sales show growth, however, the real estate sector continues to face challenges with property investment and sales declining, leading Moody's to downgrade its outlook for the sector.
Chinese economic data showing strength in consumer spending and manufacturing activity boosted Asian markets, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising 0.8% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 surging 1.1%, despite concerns about a slowdown in China's economy.
Chinese economic data showed signs of improvement in August, with retail sales and industrial production exceeding expectations, and key commodities experiencing growth, although challenges remain in the property market.
Signs of improvement in China's economy, such as improving credit demand and easing deflationary pressures, may not be enough to stabilize the economy due to bigger concerns of decreasing affordability, tight wages, and rising costs that have not been addressed. A comprehensive policy revamp may be necessary for China's economy to recover.
China's economic data for August shows a mixed picture, with retail sales and production on the rise, property investment declining, and the urban jobless rate ticking downward, leading experts to believe that while there may be modest improvements in growth, a strong recovery is still unlikely.
