Despite initial predictions of a recession, the U.S. economy has experienced unexpected growth, with high consumer spending and continued borrowing and investment by businesses being key factors.
The US economy shows signs of slowing towards the end of summer, with the services-sector index falling to a six-month low and the manufacturing-sector index remaining in negative territory, suggesting a near-stall in business activity and raising doubts about the strength of economic growth in Q3.
U.S. business activity in August approached stagnation, with the weakest growth since February and a contraction in the service sector, indicating a more tepid economic outlook than previously thought.
Employment growth in the US likely cooled and wage increases moderated in August, reducing the urgency for another interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and tempering inflation risks.
Australian retail sales rebounded in July, but the annual rate slowed, indicating that high borrowing costs are slowing consumer spending and not affecting the outlook for interest rates.
The number of job openings in the US fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, indicating a slowing economy, with declines seen in professional and business services, healthcare, and state and local government sectors, while the information industry and transportation saw increases in job openings. Additionally, consumer confidence dipped in August as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gas and groceries, and home prices continued to increase in June.
Job creation in the United States slowed more than expected in August, a sign that the resilient economy might be starting to ease under pressure from higher interest rates.
The US economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter, but still showed more strength than expected, with GDP revised down to 2.1% from an initial 2.4%; however, forecasts indicate a robust reading in the third quarter of 2.5% or higher, despite concerns of a potential recession.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter, showing resilience despite higher borrowing costs and a slight downgrade from the initial estimate of 2.4%, driven by consumer spending, business investment, and government outlays.
Consumer spending in China rebounded in August, with all categories, including apparel, automotive, food, furniture, appliances, and luxury, experiencing increased sales compared to July, according to a survey by the China Beige Book. Retail sales in July rose by 2.5% year-on-year, raising concerns about China's economic growth, but the August survey showed a surge in spending, particularly in the services sector, which saw continued strength in travel and hospitality. Additionally, corporate borrowing increased as the cost of capital declined, indicating a boost in business activity. However, China's property sector continued to worsen, with house prices barely growing and home sales declining.
Job growth in the US slowed in August, signaling the impact of high interest rates, which has given traders hope that the Federal Reserve might pause hikes; US stocks rallied on the news, with the S&P 500 on a four-day winning streak and regaining some of August's losses.
Consumer spending in the US jumped 0.8% in July, the strongest monthly gain since January, driven by purchases of restaurants, live shows, toys, games, and recreational equipment; however, underlying data suggests that this spending may be on borrowed time.
U.S. job growth likely slowed in August due to factors such as striking actors and a major trucking company bankruptcy, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain low; economists caution against overreacting and advise focusing on long-term trends.
U.S. consumer spending increased in July, boosting the economy and reducing recession risks, but the pace is likely unsustainable as households dip into their savings and face potential challenges from student debt repayments and higher borrowing costs.
British consumer spending growth slowed in August, despite a surge in cinema takings after the release of films like "Barbie", with spending on essentials such as food and fuel growing at its slowest rate since April 2020, pointing to a weakening economy.
U.S. manufacturers reported a decline in business activity for the 10th consecutive month in August, but the declines are becoming less widespread, suggesting that the trough in the cycle may be approaching.
U.S. economic growth was modest in July and August, with slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, indicating that the Federal Reserve may be close to finishing its interest rate increases.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report reveals modest economic growth in the summer, with subdued consumer spending and a slowing labor market, while also indicating that businesses expect wage growth to slow in the near term and inflation to remain benign, leading to speculation about the Fed's future monetary policy decisions.
Holiday sales in the United States are expected to grow at their slowest pace in five years, as consumers are cautious due to dwindling savings and concerns over the economy, with online shopping expected to be a bright spot.
Consumer spending in the US is showing signs of cooling, with retail sales expected to slow down in August, indicating that the resilience of the consumer may be waning due to increased borrowing, depleted savings, and the impact of inflation.
Retail sales in the US remained resilient in August, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase, surpassing expectations of 0.2%, indicating a positive trend for the economy.
Wholesale inflation in the US rose more than expected in August, with the producer price index increasing by 0.7%, the largest monthly gain since June 2022, counteracting recent data that suggested price increases had been slowing down.
August retail sales in the US exceeded expectations, with a 0.6% increase driven by higher gas prices, although underlying goods and services spending lost momentum and July's gain was revised lower, according to the Commerce Department.
Retail sales in the US rose 0.6% in August compared to July, but the increase in gas prices could impact consumer spending during the holiday shopping season, according to a report from the Commerce Department. Excluding gas sales, retail sales only increased by 0.2% in August.
China's retail sales and industrial production exceeded expectations in August, with retail sales growing by 4.6% and industrial production growing by 4.5%, but fixed asset investment lagging behind at 3.2%, indicating potential instability in the external environment.
China's factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August, but declining investment in the property sector poses a threat to the country's economic recovery.
The leading economic indicator dropped 0.4% in August, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline, but there is no indication of a recession in the U.S.
U.S. business activity remains sluggish in September, with the services sector hovering at its slowest pace since February and new order activity hitting its lowest level of the year, according to a survey by S&P Global, which also indicated that job growth and consumer spending have held steady despite concerns over interest rate hikes and inflation.
