### Summary
📉 Americans could run out of savings as early as this quarter, according to a Fed study. Excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
### Facts
- 💸 As of June, US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
- 💰 Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend.
- 🔎 San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira estimate that these excess savings will be exhausted by the end of the third quarter of 2023.
- 💳 Americans are using their credit cards more, accumulating nearly $1 trillion of debt.
- 📉 The downbeat forecast raises concerns about the US economy as consumer spending is crucial for growth.
US consumer spending is showing resilience and robust growth, although signs of a slowdown are emerging, potentially related to the public's perception of a deteriorating financial situation due to high inflation and rising interest rates, despite the fact that households still have higher deposits compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Despite concerns over the financial health of the US consumer, projections for a stock market decline may be unfounded as consumers have the capacity to spend, with low debt levels, significant assets, untapped home equity, low mortgage rates, and solid retail spending.
Consumer spending is driving third-quarter GDP growth, but unsustainable spending habits, tightening lending standards, and the depletion of pandemic savings may lead to a decline in consumer spending in early 2024.
US household savings accumulated during the pandemic are expected to be depleted by the end of September 2023, as the excess savings have steadily declined and are projected to continue falling at a rate of $100 billion per month, potentially impacting consumer spending and the wider economy.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius predicts that US consumers will remain resilient in 2024, with a projected growth of around 3% in real disposable household income, indicating that a decline in real consumer spending is unlikely despite signs of stress.
The US economy is predicted to enter a recession by spring, leading to a 25% or more crash in the S&P 500, according to economist David Rosenberg, who warns that American consumers are nearing their spending limits and rising home prices reflect a weak housing market.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, slowing housing market activity, and while home prices are not likely to fall significantly, rates are projected to decrease in 2023 and 2024.
Consumer spending has remained resilient, preventing the US economy from entering a recession, and this trend will likely continue due to low household debt-to-income levels.
There are indications that a severe economic contraction may be approaching in the US, with a significant decline in home sales and rising interest rates, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone.
US household income fell by the most in over a decade in 2022, showing the impact of rising costs and the expiration of pandemic relief programs, with the median income dropping 2.3% and marking the third consecutive annual decline, contributing to concerns about the financial well-being of American families.
Consumer spending in the US has supported the economy despite concerns of a recession, but rising interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and dwindling savings are predicted to put pressure on consumers and potentially lead to a shrinking of personal consumption.
Many experts predict that savings account interest rates will remain steady in 2023 but could start dropping in 2024.
Economist Gary Shilling predicts that the S&P 500 will decline by around 40% during this market cycle, citing recession indicators such as the yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. He believes that a US recession may already be underway due to the Federal Reserve's focus on reducing inflation, and high valuations in the stock market increase the likelihood of a significant drop.
U.S. consumers have significantly reduced their spending over the past six months and plan to continue doing so during the upcoming holiday season, with the majority cutting back on non-essential items and essential items.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has revealed accumulated losses of $100 billion in 2023, a situation that is expected to worsen for the Fed, but it may be a blessing in disguise for risk assets like Bitcoin. The losses are a result of interest payments on the Fed's debt surpassing its earnings, leading to concerns about the impact on interest rates and the demand for scarce assets like BTC.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline after the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates, suggesting that significant gains may not be anticipated in the near future.
The forecasted U.S. recession in 2024 is expected to be shorter and less severe than previous recessions, with the economy's interest-rate sensitivity much lower due to reduced leverage and elevated savings from the postpandemic environment, leading investors to consider positioning for investment opportunities that will drive markets into 2024.
A drop in savings among Americans and record credit-card debt could have disastrous consequences for the economy if a recession occurs, as data shows personal savings rates remain historically low and many Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
The latest Federal Reserve study reveals that Americans outside the wealthiest 20% have depleted their savings during the pandemic, with cash on hand now lower than pre-pandemic levels, potentially leading to a decline in consumer spending and a potential economic downturn.
Consumer confidence in the US fell for the second consecutive month in September 2023, with the Expectations Index dropping below the recession threshold, reflecting concerns about rising prices, the political situation, and higher interest rates. Assessments of the present situation were relatively unchanged, while expectations for business conditions, job availability, and incomes declined. Concerns about the current and future financial situation of families also increased.
Global wealth experienced a significant decline in 2022, with a 2.7% drop in households' financial assets worldwide, primarily driven by falling asset prices; however, there is optimism for a rebound in 2023 and subsequent years, with projected growth of 6%.
The decline in net household financial savings is largely due to the increase in their liabilities, with household financial liabilities rising from 3.8% to 5.8% of GDP in 2022-23, leading to concerns of growing household distress and potential implications for the broader economy.