Main Topic: Americans' credit card debt reaches over $1 trillion for the first time ever.
Key Points:
1. Total credit card indebtedness rose by $45 billion in the April-through-June period, reaching $1.03 trillion.
2. Credit card delinquency rates have increased, with 30 or more days late climbing to 7.2% in Q2.
3. The rise in credit card balances reflects inflationary pressures and higher levels of consumption, while household income remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Late payments on credit card balances are surging, potentially signaling a recession, as delinquencies hit an all-time high among commercial banks outside of the top 100, according to Wells Fargo.
Consumer spending growth is slowing as the economy stabilizes, with consumers prioritizing essential purchases and adjusting their spending habits in response to rising interest rates and financial pressures.
Despite reaching record levels of total credit card debt and household debt, Americans are actually managing their debt better than in the past due to inflation masking the impact on balances and lower debt-to-deposit levels, according to an analysis by WalletHub. However, the rising trajectory of credit card debt and the increasing number of households carrying balances raise concerns, especially considering the high interest rates, which can take more than 17 years to pay off and cost thousands of dollars in interest. Meanwhile, savers have the opportunity to earn higher returns on cash due to higher inflation and interest rates.
Australian retail sales rebounded in July, but the annual rate slowed, indicating that high borrowing costs are slowing consumer spending and not affecting the outlook for interest rates.
The growth in lending to euro zone companies slowed in July due to higher interest rates, signaling a potential brake on credit creation and economic growth.
Consumer spending is driving third-quarter GDP growth, but unsustainable spending habits, tightening lending standards, and the depletion of pandemic savings may lead to a decline in consumer spending in early 2024.
The Wall Street Journal reports a notable shift in the stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates, with some officials now seeing risks as more balanced due to easing inflation and a less overheated labor market, which could impact the timing of future rate hikes. In other news, consumer credit growth slows in July, China and Japan reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to record lows, and Russia's annual inflation rate reached 5.2% in August 2023.
U.S. consumers have accumulated $43 billion in additional credit card debt during Q2 2022, three times the average amount since the Great Recession, and credit card interest rates have soared to over 20%, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on consumers' ability to pay off their balances. However, some economists argue that higher wages are helping consumers keep pace with their debt, and the overall rate of charge-offs remains low. Nonetheless, the combination of spent-down pandemic savings and the resumption of federal student loan payments could pose challenges for lower-income borrowers and hinder consumer spending.
Credit union customers experienced loan balance growth in the second quarter of 2023, with credit unions being the only lender category to show growth across the board; however, new credit slowed in all categories except for personal loans.
Bank of America's data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending, with spending on their credit cards decreasing and other categories, particularly discretionary ones, slowing down as well. This suggests cracks in the resilient consumer narrative and could potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
