U.S. dollar defies China, Russia and Wall Street skeptics as 2023 rebound continues
The US dollar is defying expectations and reaching its highest level in six months, proving that talk of de-dollarization has been over-hyped.
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Posted 8/28/2023, 6:10:00 PM
marketwatch.com
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A group of developing countries known as BRICS, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is determined to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global finance and trade through the process of de-dollarization, which they believe is irreversible and gaining pace. The shift away from dollar dominance is driven by recent geopolitical tensions and the desire to have more choices in global financial interactions, rather than being anti-West or anti-dollar. However, experts believe that the dollar will remain the dominant global currency for the foreseeable future.
The US Dollar is facing profit-taking and risk as traders digest the Jackson Hole speech and push back expectations for rate cuts, while upcoming macroeconomic data points will be closely watched for any signs of economic deterioration.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The U.S. is currently experiencing a prolonged high inflation cycle that is causing significant damage to the purchasing power of the currency, and the recent lower inflation rate is misleading as it ignores the accumulated harm; in order to combat this cycle, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates higher than the inflation rate and reverse its bond purchases.
The dollar has reached a five-month high as investors anticipate the need for elevated interest rates due to the strong US economy, with factors such as weak growth in China and Europe, rising US yields, and falling equity prices further supporting the case for dollar strength.
The biggest risk of de-dollarization is that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises, according to JPMorgan.
The rising U.S. dollar is causing concern among foreign officials and investors, but it remains uncertain if anything can be done to stop its rise or if it will negatively impact U.S. equities.
The dollar's strength is expected to be difficult to overcome for most major currencies by year-end, according to a Reuters poll of forex strategists, with risks to the greenback outlook skewed to the upside.
The US dollar strengthens to a six-month high after data reveals that the services sector unexpectedly picked up steam last month, indicating inflation pressure and suggesting that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.
The US dollar is on track for its longest rally in years as the strength of the economy fuels speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, drawing money into the US as investors seek higher rates than they can get in Europe and Asia.
The US Dollar underperformed against major currencies last week, crude oil continued to rally, and gold prices were cautiously higher, while upcoming events like central bank rate decisions and the Bank of England rate hike are expected to impact the market.
European markets are pessimistic ahead of central bank meetings, energy prices raise the risk of secondary inflation, and the US dollar is gaining strength, which may negatively impact precious metals and cryptocurrencies.
The US dollar has made an unexpected comeback, with its rebound causing ripples in global markets and impacting investors, officials, and companies.