BRICS seeks to expand its membership and become a champion of the "Global South," with over 40 countries expressing interest in joining the bloc to challenge Western dominance and address grievances related to abusive trade practices and neglect of poorer nations' development needs, among others. However, observers note that BRICS has a limited track record and may struggle to deliver on expectations.
The BRICS alliance could gain control of the majority of the world's oil and gas trade by including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could lead to a shift away from the USD and the de-dollarization of the oil economy.
While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the BRICS Summit that the decline in the global role of the US dollar is an irreversible process, emphasizing the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
The US Dollar strengthens as several BRIC countries express support for the currency, while Fed officials remain quiet on rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions boost the Greenback during US trading hours.
Russia has called on the BRICS alliance to abandon the US dollar for trade settlements and instead embrace local currencies, in a continuation of the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
BRICS, comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now represents almost a third of global GDP and is surpassing the economic influence of the G7, with over 40 nations expressing interest in joining.
Brazil's President proposed the creation of a common currency for BRICS nations to reduce their vulnerability to dollar exchange rate fluctuations, although officials and economists have acknowledged the challenges of such a project.
Brazil's President, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, announced at the BRICS Summit that the economic alliance will officially abandon the US dollar for trade settlements, aligning with de-dollarization efforts and expanding to include six additional countries by 2024.
The BRICS summit is aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. Dollar, as the coalition confirms new members including UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina, and discusses the possibility of a new payment system and currency backed by gold.
The BRICS, a bloc of emerging market nations, has expanded its membership to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with the goal of building a fair, just, inclusive, and prosperous world; however, experts question whether BRICS can effectively compete with the West given their differing priorities, and the ambition of creating a common BRICS currency to rival the dollar is unlikely to materialize due to competing interests and priorities among member states.
The US dollar will remain dominant in global trade, but China's yuan is gaining popularity among developing countries such as Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa.
BRICS is considering making local currencies the only accepted form of payment for oil and gas settlements, which could potentially shift global power from the West to the East.
The BRICS 2023 Summit saw the expansion of the alliance with the addition of six countries, potentially leading to a shift in the global economic order and significant de-dollarization efforts, while notable absences by Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping raised concerns, and China and India made progress in their border talks.
The BRICS nations are divided on the issue of de-dollarization, as statements from the bloc's leaders indicated, despite discussions about the creation of a common currency to rival the US dollar.
The BRICS' economic output represents over 40% of the world's population and is predicted to reach 40% of global GDP by 2040, but skepticism remains about their effectiveness as a bloc due to differences in economic policy, China's dominant role, and conflicts among member countries.
Despite recent efforts to de-dollarize global trade, Indian Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes the dominance of the US dollar is unlikely to be threatened by emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee and China's yuan. Puri stated that while he wishes the rupee to be the lead currency globally, he is also a realist and recognizes the difficulty of replacing the dollar.
The dollar is not likely to lose its status as the global reserve currency despite the expansion of the BRICS group of nations and their aim to find an alternative, as technology and not commodity-based currencies are expected to be the driving force in the future.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The BRICS expansion and their de-dollarization efforts have been met with a relatively calm response from the US, Germany, and the European Union, emphasizing the importance of countries choosing partnerships based on their national interests.
The BRICS bloc, which has now expanded to include 11 countries, controls 30% of the global economy, 46% of the world's population, and a significant share of commodities such as manganese, graphite, nickel, and copper, as well as 42% of the global oil supply, potentially putting pressure on the US economy and challenging the traditional world order.
JP Morgan predicts that the U.S. dollar is at risk of losing its global reserve status as BRICS countries increase their use of local currencies for trade settlement, although the chances of this happening in the near future are slim.
The biggest risk of de-dollarization is that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises, according to JPMorgan.
The extended BRICS alliance, which now includes six new countries, has a GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) that accounts for more than one-third of the global economy, giving them the potential to control exports of oil to the West and influence trade settlement currency choices.
The residual impact of sanctions against Russia is causing divisions among the Group of 20 countries, with some nations resisting US-led efforts and forming alliances with Russia and China, while the BRICS nations are seeking to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The Indian Rupee is weakening against the US dollar, causing concern for Indian authorities who fear that it could impact the country's import and export sectors, with suspicions that India may be taking measures to limit the dollar's growth; similarly, other BRICS member countries like China and Japan are also trying to curb the US dollar's growth.
Creating a BRICS currency backed by gold is considered nonsensical by a former Bank of America strategist, as it would essentially be another gold derivative and would weaken individual currencies within the group.
The BRICS expansion, which includes countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, has raised concerns in the U.S. and EU as it poses a threat to Western-dominated financial markets, while China's influence grows and the alliance aims for de-dollarization in global trade.
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's proposal for a shared currency among the BRICS nations has been met with skepticism due to logistical and political challenges, with differing levels of enthusiasm among the other leaders and the dominant position of the US dollar in global trade.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed that the one-sided foreign policy of the United States, including heavy-handed actions and economic sanctions, is causing countries in the BRICS and ASEAN alliances to move away from the US dollar and seek alternative currencies for global trade, potentially impacting the American economy.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.
