While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
The inclusion of oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the BRICS alliance could lead to 90% of the world's oil trade being settled in local currencies instead of the USD, potentially triggering a shift away from the U.S. dollar and impacting the global finance system.
The Brics economic group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is discussing the possibility of expanding its membership and promoting the use of local currencies for trade settlement, with aims to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but analysts believe that the greenback is unlikely to lose its status as the international reserve currency.
The weakening of the U.S. dollar could benefit companies that export products and services, while importers may have to pay more for the goods they bring in, leading them to hold off on purchases. However, a more stable dollar can benefit both importers and exporters.
The BRICS summit is aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. Dollar, as the coalition confirms new members including UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina, and discusses the possibility of a new payment system and currency backed by gold.
The BRICS alliance, now including six of the world's largest oil producers, aims to utilize its mass oil production to promote local currencies and reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade.
The dollar is expected to continue strengthening as bond yields rise, with the Fed likely to hike rates at least once more this year, and a barrage of economic data this week will heavily influence Fed policy decisions and impact the direction of the dollar and interest rates.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
The BRICS nations are divided on the issue of de-dollarization, as statements from the bloc's leaders indicated, despite discussions about the creation of a common currency to rival the US dollar.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The Canadian dollar strengthens slightly against the US dollar in August despite concerns about China's economy and a decline in commodity-linked currencies.
The dollar is not likely to lose its status as the global reserve currency despite the expansion of the BRICS group of nations and their aim to find an alternative, as technology and not commodity-based currencies are expected to be the driving force in the future.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The BRICS expansion and their de-dollarization efforts have been met with a relatively calm response from the US, Germany, and the European Union, emphasizing the importance of countries choosing partnerships based on their national interests.
JP Morgan predicts that the U.S. dollar is at risk of losing its global reserve status as BRICS countries increase their use of local currencies for trade settlement, although the chances of this happening in the near future are slim.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar as stronger-than-expected jobs data raised the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada.
The US dollar has experienced a remarkable recovery over the past two months, erasing all of its losses for 2023, as strong economic data suggests the US economy will avoid a recession and makes the greenback an attractive investment compared to other currencies.
The US dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market, along with discussions of de-dollarization, highlights the divergence between the US and other major economies. The Dollar Index is on an eight-week rally, reaching a record high in international payments, while the euro's share has declined to a record low. In the week ahead, the US CPI and the ECB meeting are expected to be major events, with the US showing signs of inflation and weaker demand, and the euro facing challenges amid stagnation and inflation. China's CPI and PPI have shown some improvement, but the focus will be on yuan loans and real sector data. The eurozone's focus will be on the possibility of a rate hike by the ECB and the release of July industrial production figures. Japan's household consumption continues to fall, and the country may experience a contraction in Q3. The UK will release employment data and GDP details, while Canada will see data on existing home sales and the CPI. Australia will release its August employment data, and Mexico's peso positions may continue to adjust due to the winding down of the currency forward hedging facility.
The value of the U.S. dollar has been strengthening against the Euro and the British Pound due to the continuing strength of the U.S. economy and the weakness of the European economies.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The Mexican peso and other Latin American currencies strengthened as a weaker dollar and positive economic data from China boosted metal prices and supported resource-rich countries in the region.
The Indian Rupee is weakening against the US dollar, causing concern for Indian authorities who fear that it could impact the country's import and export sectors, with suspicions that India may be taking measures to limit the dollar's growth; similarly, other BRICS member countries like China and Japan are also trying to curb the US dollar's growth.
The U.S. dollar stabilized as traders await U.S. inflation data, while sterling weakened after the U.K. economy contracted more than expected in July.
The BRICS expansion, which includes countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, has raised concerns in the U.S. and EU as it poses a threat to Western-dominated financial markets, while China's influence grows and the alliance aims for de-dollarization in global trade.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
The dollar strengthens and stocks decline as the Federal Reserve delivers a "hawkish pause" during the Fed meeting, with updates on the interest-rate decision, dot plot, and Jerome Powell press conference.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.
