While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
The US dollar weakened slightly against major peers as traders awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the yen pulled away from a nine-month low and China's yuan briefly rose following attempts to bolster the currency.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
The inclusion of oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the BRICS alliance could lead to 90% of the world's oil trade being settled in local currencies instead of the USD, potentially triggering a shift away from the U.S. dollar and impacting the global finance system.
The Brics economic group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is discussing the possibility of expanding its membership and promoting the use of local currencies for trade settlement, with aims to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but analysts believe that the greenback is unlikely to lose its status as the international reserve currency.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the BRICS Summit that the decline in the global role of the US dollar is an irreversible process, emphasizing the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
The US Dollar strengthens as several BRIC countries express support for the currency, while Fed officials remain quiet on rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions boost the Greenback during US trading hours.
The euro falls to a more than two-month low as weaker than expected euro zone data weighs on the currency, while world stocks rebound amid anticipation for Nvidia's earnings results and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole summit.
The South African rand weakened by 1% against the US dollar on the last day of the BRICS summit, due to the strength of the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, while most emerging market currencies were also affected by concerns over hawkish posturing by central bankers.
The combined footprint of Japan and China in the US Treasury market is at its lowest on record, leading to speculation that they may sell dollars and liquidate US Treasuries to support their currencies without causing significant market disruption.
In August, the USD strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index up 2.28%, EURUSD down 1.83%, USDJPY up 2.83%, GBPUSD down 1.96%, USDCAD up 3.25%, and AUDUSD down 4.64%. Meanwhile, major global stock indices experienced declines, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and China's Shanghai composite index.
The US dollar will remain dominant in global trade, but China's yuan is gaining popularity among developing countries such as Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa.
The foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan fell below $8 billion for the first time in five weeks, dropping to $7.93 billion, which may pose challenges as the country faces significant debt servicing payments.
Despite efforts by countries like China and Russia to reduce the dominance of the US dollar, its share in global payments has reached a record high, with 46% of foreign-exchange payments in July involving the greenback, according to SWIFT data.
India's foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a two-month low of $594.89 billion due to a decline of $7.27 billion, the largest weekly fall in over six months, as the rupee dropped to a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline, with Bitcoin falling below $26,000, as traders remain cautious following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.
The BRICS nations are divided on the issue of de-dollarization, as statements from the bloc's leaders indicated, despite discussions about the creation of a common currency to rival the US dollar.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar dropped to a two-week low against the euro and other currencies after data revealed lower than expected private payroll growth in August, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate increases.
The dollar is not likely to lose its status as the global reserve currency despite the expansion of the BRICS group of nations and their aim to find an alternative, as technology and not commodity-based currencies are expected to be the driving force in the future.
The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after data revealed that the country's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada.
Despite the divergence in global economies, the US dollar still remains dominant, holding a record-high share of 46% on SWIFT in July, while the euro's share slipped to a record low.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The BRICS bloc, which has now expanded to include 11 countries, controls 30% of the global economy, 46% of the world's population, and a significant share of commodities such as manganese, graphite, nickel, and copper, as well as 42% of the global oil supply, potentially putting pressure on the US economy and challenging the traditional world order.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
The US dollar's influence in the oil markets is diminishing as more oil is being transacted in non-dollar currencies, according to JPMorgan.
JP Morgan predicts that the U.S. dollar is at risk of losing its global reserve status as BRICS countries increase their use of local currencies for trade settlement, although the chances of this happening in the near future are slim.
Most Latin American currencies fell as the dollar strengthened on robust U.S. economic data, with the Mexican peso leading the declines, while Chile's peso gained after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate and lowered its economic growth forecast for 2023.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
The value of the U.S. dollar has been strengthening against the Euro and the British Pound due to the continuing strength of the U.S. economy and the weakness of the European economies.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
Global shares rise as risk appetite increases, the yen jumps against the dollar, and signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy push up copper and oil prices.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The euro has been continuously decreasing in value against the dollar for the eighth consecutive week, reflecting the economic challenges faced by Europe, including high inflation and the specter of recession, while the United States has better control over inflation and a stronger labor market, leading to a widening gap between the euro and the dollar.
China's currency, the yuan, has depreciated over 8% against the dollar as the Chinese economy grows less than expected, making it harder to reach its growth target of 5% for 2023, and worries about the economy have intensified due to issues in the real estate sector and financial health of local governments, causing concerns about the future of the yuan which may experience a slow but steady depreciation in the face of a weak dollar and a desire to maintain a trade surplus.
The US Dollar underperformed against major currencies last week, crude oil continued to rally, and gold prices were cautiously higher, while upcoming events like central bank rate decisions and the Bank of England rate hike are expected to impact the market.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.
The BRICS bloc, including countries like India, China, and Russia, is slowly reducing its dependency on the US dollar and using their local currencies for trade, which could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the dominant global currency.
