Asian currencies against the dollar had minor fluctuations, with the Japanese yen, Singapore dollar, and Taiwanese dollar showing slight gains, while the Chinese yuan experienced a slight decline; overall, there were small changes compared to the end of 2022.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is rising to its highest level since 2007, and this is due in part to reduced demand from foreign countries, such as Japan and China, who are diversifying their investments away from U.S. Treasurys.
Japan is unlikely to intervene in the market unless the yen weakens past 150 to the dollar and becomes a major political issue, according to a former central bank official, who also noted that the benefits of a weak yen are becoming clearer due to the re-opening of Japan's borders.
Japanese and Chinese central banks have significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds, making it less likely that their interventions in the foreign exchange market would disrupt global markets or strike fear into bond investors.
China's recent sale of its US Treasurys is a reflection of economic weakness and an attempt to prop up its weakening currency, not a sign of strength, according to Carson Group.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
China's currency, the yuan, is at its lowest level against the dollar since the 2008 financial crash, which raises concerns about the country's economic stability and its ability to boost domestic consumption.
Asian stocks, particularly China shares, have continued to rally amid speculation that Beijing's small policy measures could result in significant stimulus, with expectations of a relaxation of property buyer restrictions; Japanese shares have also seen positive performance after data revealed record recurring profits in Q2, resulting in the Topix reaching a 33-year high; U.S. futures imply a high probability of no interest rate hike this month and suggest the tightening cycle may be over, while Treasuries sold off on Friday, leading to concerns over the budget deficit and potential difficulties in absorbing new debt.
JP Morgan predicts that the U.S. dollar is at risk of losing its global reserve status as BRICS countries increase their use of local currencies for trade settlement, although the chances of this happening in the near future are slim.
Gold and silver prices are lower due to a strong U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while trader and investor risk appetite is downbeat with downbeat economic data from China and Asian stock markets mostly lower.
Stablecoin issuer Tether has become one of the top buyers of US Treasury bills, with an exposure of $72.5 billion, ranking above several countries, according to Tether's CTO Paolo Ardoino. This highlights the relevance of USDT in emerging markets as a protection against inflation.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
The Japanese yen has reached a 10-month low against the US dollar, while the euro and sterling remain near three-month lows, as investors show confidence in the US economy despite global growth concerns.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Asian markets are weighed down by concerns over high U.S. bond yields, a strong dollar, China's economic struggles, and rising oil prices.
Chinese property stocks and Japanese government bonds set the tone for global markets as the Hang Seng property index dropped to a fresh September low before rebounding on news that Country Garden won creditor support to delay onshore bond payments, while the Bank of Japan's comments about potential stimulus exit in 2023 pushed the local bond market, and the week ahead is marked by important policy meetings by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the ECB.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased for a second consecutive month in July, reaching $7.655 trillion, despite uncertain interest rates and mixed economic data, with China's holdings dropping to the lowest level since 2009, potentially due to pressure to defend its weakening currency.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates and reassure markets that monetary stimulus will continue amidst China's economic struggles and the global impact of US interest rates.
China has continued to decrease its holdings of US Treasury bills, but there are suggestions that as the rate-hike cycle nears its end, policymakers in Beijing may need to reconsider their decision to unload Treasuries.
The Japanese yen remains weak against the U.S. dollar due to high U.S. Treasury yields and anticipation of the Bank of Japan maintaining its current monetary policies, while the dollar is boosted by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.
Chinese stocks defy regional declines as tech stocks rise, while the 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreases from a 16-year high; US futures tick higher following a 1.6% slide in the S&P 500; bond yields rise in Australia and New Zealand after positive US labor market data; and India's sovereign debt is set to be included in JPMorgan's benchmark emerging-markets index.
