The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
Pakistan's rupee dropped to a record low due to the easing of import restrictions, which has increased demand for the dollar.
The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar and a 12-month low against the pound after German and eurozone business activity slumped more than expected in August, leading to concerns about the state of the European economy and potential pauses in tightening measures by the European Central Bank, while the dollar rose to a two-month peak amid positive U.S. economic data.
The value of the U.S. dollar locked in active ether perpetual futures contracts on Binance has dropped to its lowest level in 13 months, indicating a decline in leverage and lower probability of liquidations-driven volatility in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin's price dropped below $26,000, losing most of its gains from the previous day, as both cryptocurrencies and traditional markets experience a significant downtrend.
Oil prices fell as U.S. labor market data indicated tight conditions, potentially leading to further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, overshadowing concerns of weakening demand and rising inventories.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
The US dollar eased from a 12-week peak as traders assessed the US monetary path following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on further interest rate increases, while the yen remained close to its lowest level in over nine months.
The Pakistani rupee has fallen below 300 to a US dollar due to factors such as the rise of the dollar, uncertainty surrounding general elections, and a political/judicial/constitutional crisis, resulting in eroded business confidence, increased inflation, and reduced industrial output.
The Federal Reserve is losing its power to influence the US economy, according to Wall Street economist Richard Koo, potentially requiring higher interest rates to drive inflation down and leading to a selloff in stocks and bonds.
US job openings fell to the lowest level in nearly 2.5 years in July, indicating a gradual slowdown in the labor market and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next month.
Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over a week due to concerns about job creation and consumer confidence, leading bond traders to lower the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year.
The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous losses as investors awaited labor market data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar experienced weakness due to disappointing economic data, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive in its monetary policy settings, while equities showed modest gains; Chinese PMI numbers beat estimates but concerns about the property sector lingered; USD/JPY dipped before recovering; and the DXY index stabilized after recent losses, with potential support levels identified.
U.S. mortgage rates have dropped for the first time in six weeks, due to uncertainty surrounding the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates in September.
Bitcoin's price dropped below $26,000 as the approval of a Bitcoin ETF was further delayed by the SEC, reversing the bullish gains from the Grayscale court decision earlier in the week. The crypto market also experienced a decline, with Ethereum's price going down by 3.5% and the overall market cap losing $11.2 billion. However, Maker and Toncoin managed to resist the bearish trend with positive gains. The global macroeconomic landscape also added to the uncertainty, as key economic data raised doubts about a potential interest rate hike.
The euro rose against the dollar and euro zone bond yields fell after US unemployment rate increased, suggesting the Federal Reserve may be done with interest rate hikes.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
The US dollar edged lower as US markets were closed for a holiday, and investors considered US jobs data indicating signs of cooling, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be at the end of its monetary tightening cycle.
Gold prices decline slightly as the dollar remains strong, with investors awaiting further signals on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy after an expected interest rate pause this month.
The dollar has reached a five-month high as investors anticipate the need for elevated interest rates due to the strong US economy, with factors such as weak growth in China and Europe, rising US yields, and falling equity prices further supporting the case for dollar strength.
The Australian dollar declined against the US dollar as the Australian economy slowed in Q2, indicating that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not raise interest rates further.
The Indian rupee hits a 10-month low against the US dollar due to concerns over rising oil prices and a decline in Asian currencies.
Most Latin American currencies fell as the dollar strengthened on robust U.S. economic data, with the Mexican peso leading the declines, while Chile's peso gained after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate and lowered its economic growth forecast for 2023.
US stocks dropped on Wednesday as fears of more Federal Reserve rate hikes circulated, with Big Tech names like Apple and Nvidia dragging major indexes lower. Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that further policy tightening could be warranted, while the Fed's Beige Book indicated softer activity growth and a cooling labor market in July and August.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The Chinese yuan has dropped to a 16-year low against the dollar due to concerns over a deepening economic slowdown in China, with data showing a decline in exports for the fourth consecutive month.
Inflation has decreased significantly in recent months, but the role of the Federal Reserve in this decline is questionable as there is little evidence to suggest that higher interest rates led to lower prices and curtailed demand or employment. Other factors such as falling energy prices and the healing of disrupted supply chains appear to have had a larger impact on slowing inflation.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped as concerns over potential interest rate hikes grew due to recent economic data, including lower jobless claims and sustained inflationary pressures.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
The euro has been continuously decreasing in value against the dollar for the eighth consecutive week, reflecting the economic challenges faced by Europe, including high inflation and the specter of recession, while the United States has better control over inflation and a stronger labor market, leading to a widening gap between the euro and the dollar.
Cryptocurrency prices remained stable as inflation in the U.S. surpassed economists' expectations, with Bitcoin trading at around $26,100 and Ethereum experiencing a slight dip of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve will consider this report, among other factors, for its upcoming interest rate announcement on September 20. While inflation has decreased since June, it still exceeds the Fed's target of 2% annually. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, decreased to 4.3% in August compared to July's 4.7%.
The US Dollar underperformed against major currencies last week, crude oil continued to rally, and gold prices were cautiously higher, while upcoming events like central bank rate decisions and the Bank of England rate hike are expected to impact the market.
