While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
Argentina should focus on fiscal spending cuts and a recession rather than adopting the dollar as its currency to address the recent peso crash, according to an economist.
The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar and a 12-month low against the pound after German and eurozone business activity slumped more than expected in August, leading to concerns about the state of the European economy and potential pauses in tightening measures by the European Central Bank, while the dollar rose to a two-month peak amid positive U.S. economic data.
The Argentinian peso weakened against the dollar on the black market while stocks rose as investors awaited the approval of Argentina's loan program by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board, following a staff level agreement in July.
Mexican economy is forecasted to grow by 2.9% in 2023, while the Mexican peso is expected to trade just under 18 to the US dollar by the end of the year, according to a survey of analysts by Citibanamex.
Mexico's peso rose against the dollar after central bank minutes and inflation data indicated that interest rates would remain on hold for longer, while the BRICS group invited Argentina and five other countries to join the bloc.
Latin American currencies are under pressure from a strong dollar as traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on U.S. interest rates, while the Chilean peso reaches a three-week high; meanwhile, Argentina stocks are seen as a "safeguard of value" amid economic turmoil, but the country faces opposition to joining the BRICS bloc.
The Latin American currencies index reversed its early loss and gained 0.2% as the dollar lost steam and traders analyzed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on further rate hikes.
The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous losses as investors awaited labor market data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
European bonds and stocks fell as inflation data suggested that inflation in the euro region may not be fully subsiding, while utilities led the decline in the Stoxx Europe 600 and the German and Spanish inflation data complicated the outlook for European policy makers.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar dropped to a two-week low against the euro and other currencies after data revealed lower than expected private payroll growth in August, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate increases.
The dollar is not likely to lose its status as the global reserve currency despite the expansion of the BRICS group of nations and their aim to find an alternative, as technology and not commodity-based currencies are expected to be the driving force in the future.
The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after data revealed that the country's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
Latin American currencies rose, with the Brazilian real leading the gains, ahead of economic data, while Petrobras halted some asset sales after a review, and a Brazilian court approved the debt restructuring plan of Samarco.
The Brazilian real strengthened as iron ore prices rose, while Chile's peso weakened due to falling copper prices; Mexico's peso declined for the third consecutive session; Petrobras shares fell after the company halted some asset sales; Israel's shekel gained after the central bank left interest rates unchanged; trading volumes were low due to the Labor Day holiday in the US.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
Latin American currencies are experiencing their worst week in four weeks due to the stronger US dollar and concerns about China's economic growth, with Chile's peso hitting a nine-month low, while Brazil's real slipped and Colombia's peso advanced slightly.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
The Mexican peso and other Latin American currencies strengthened as a weaker dollar and positive economic data from China boosted metal prices and supported resource-rich countries in the region.
The euro has been continuously decreasing in value against the dollar for the eighth consecutive week, reflecting the economic challenges faced by Europe, including high inflation and the specter of recession, while the United States has better control over inflation and a stronger labor market, leading to a widening gap between the euro and the dollar.
Latin American currencies and stocks are set for their biggest weekly increases in months, benefiting from a stabilizing Chinese economy, rallying commodity prices, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking rates.
Latin American currencies pared gains against the dollar as the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled tighter monetary policy, while Brazilian stocks rose ahead of a rate cut by the central bank.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.
Bitcoin's price in Argentine pesos has risen significantly, but due to high inflation rates in Argentina, it has not been a reliable store of value compared to the US dollar.
