Asian currencies against the dollar had minor fluctuations, with the Japanese yen, Singapore dollar, and Taiwanese dollar showing slight gains, while the Chinese yuan experienced a slight decline; overall, there were small changes compared to the end of 2022.
USD/JPY and DXY have a similar currency value, but there are variations in the exchange rates with other currencies such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. USD/JPY is currently overbought compared to DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and oversold compared to JPY/USD. There is a significant 2000 pip relationship between USD/JPY and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and DXY, with specific price levels to watch. However, trading in currencies and financial instruments involves risks, so investors must manage their own risks, including stop loss and margin requirements.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
China's economic slowdown, marked by falling consumer prices, a deepening real estate crisis, and a slump in exports, has alarmed international leaders and investors, causing Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to fall into a bear market and prompting major investment banks to downgrade their growth forecasts for China below 5%.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable downturn, with the total market capitalization falling by 10% and triggering significant liquidations on futures contracts, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, delays in approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), financial difficulties within the Digital Currency Group (DCG), regulatory tightening, and a strengthening US dollar.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
The S&P 500 and other major indices are showing bearish signals, with potential for a significant drop, while the dollar is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and strong economic data could lead to a breakout in interest rates. Additionally, Meta's stock is on a downward trend and the KBW NASDAQ BANK Index is at risk of further decline.
Stock indices finished the trading session in the green, with gains seen in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, Texas manufacturing experienced a downturn in August, and gas prices have slipped across the country. U.S. stock futures are trending higher, and traders are awaiting key economic releases and earnings reports this week. In Asian markets, indices ended higher, but Evergrande Group's shares plunged while Xpeng's shares rallied.
The US Dollar experienced a significant decline due to weak economic data and increased risk appetite, while the Euro and British Pound strengthened. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar also performed well, and gold and cryptocurrencies rallied.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar experienced weakness due to disappointing economic data, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive in its monetary policy settings, while equities showed modest gains; Chinese PMI numbers beat estimates but concerns about the property sector lingered; USD/JPY dipped before recovering; and the DXY index stabilized after recent losses, with potential support levels identified.
The Canadian dollar strengthens slightly against the US dollar in August despite concerns about China's economy and a decline in commodity-linked currencies.
The market cap of USD Coin (USDC) has been decreasing rapidly, reaching a two-year low due to a loss of trust after the banking crisis earlier this year and a drop in activity in the DeFi sphere, while its competitor Tether continues to rise in market cap; however, Coinbase remains bullish on USDC's future and aims to expand its adoption.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
Summary: European markets are poised for a positive start to the week, influenced by the positive trade in the Asia-Pacific region, while investors keep an eye on German trade balance data and a speech by Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank. Additionally, Fidelity's China fund is on track to outperform its peers for the second year in a row, Arm aims for a listing price between $47 and $51 per share in its IPO, and the US Department of Labor reports a rise in unemployment and lower-than-expected wage growth in August.
Wall Street's main indexes fell in choppy trade due to rising Treasury yields and weak services activity in China, while gains in energy stocks limited losses; however, expectations of a pause in Fed monetary tightening boosted growth stocks.
Asia stocks fall as weak economic data in China and Europe raise concerns over global growth, while the dollar strengthens as investors assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling. The technology sector was the session's laggard, while the utilities sector was the leader. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield increased, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest GDPNow reading estimates that the economy will expand by about 5.6% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, noting a tourism boom but slower spending in other areas. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in higher than expected, and mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since 1996. The U.S. trade deficit widened less than expected in July. U.S. stock futures inched lower, and European indices trended lower. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
Emerging market currencies are expected to struggle to recover from their losses this year due to high U.S. Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and a slowing Chinese economy, keeping the dollar strong, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Global shares stabilize as the dollar continues to strengthen and investors anticipate that central banks will keep interest rates unchanged over the next two weeks.
The dollar index has been on a sustained rally since mid-July, leading to a slight decline in gold prices due to the inverse relationship between the two, but gold has held up well despite the strength of the dollar.
The U.S. dollar index had its eighth consecutive week of gains, while global stock indexes ended slightly higher before key U.S. inflation data, with concerns that high interest rates may remain in place for longer than expected despite the Federal Reserve likely keeping rates unchanged this month. Longer-dated Treasury yields eased, Apple shares rose slightly after two days of losses, and oil prices increased.
The US dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market, along with discussions of de-dollarization, highlights the divergence between the US and other major economies. The Dollar Index is on an eight-week rally, reaching a record high in international payments, while the euro's share has declined to a record low. In the week ahead, the US CPI and the ECB meeting are expected to be major events, with the US showing signs of inflation and weaker demand, and the euro facing challenges amid stagnation and inflation. China's CPI and PPI have shown some improvement, but the focus will be on yuan loans and real sector data. The eurozone's focus will be on the possibility of a rate hike by the ECB and the release of July industrial production figures. Japan's household consumption continues to fall, and the country may experience a contraction in Q3. The UK will release employment data and GDP details, while Canada will see data on existing home sales and the CPI. Australia will release its August employment data, and Mexico's peso positions may continue to adjust due to the winding down of the currency forward hedging facility.
Summary: Despite a slight rise in US markets on Friday, major indexes finished the week lower, with Europe's Stoxx 600 index also experiencing losses, while the G20 nations released a joint communique addressing Russia's war in Ukraine, omitting overt criticism from last year's statement. Elsewhere, Instacart plans to go public at a lower valuation, SpaceX's Starship Super Heavy rocket remains grounded, and the upcoming consumer price index report could impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
Global shares rise as risk appetite increases, the yen jumps against the dollar, and signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy push up copper and oil prices.
Global markets ended higher as energy stocks climbed supported by Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to extend supply cuts, while Wall Street's key indexes saw weekly declines due to investor concerns over interest rates and anticipation of upcoming U.S. inflation data. In Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 ended down, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up, and Chinese shares rose following improved data on consumer price inflation. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook has been downgraded by the European Commission, and crude oil prices fell.
Stock indices closed in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all experiencing declines, while the technology sector underperformed and the energy sector led the session. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dropped, while the Two-Year Treasury yield increased. The Small Business Optimism Index for August decreased, with inflation cited as a major concern among small business owners. Stocks opened lower on Tuesday, and U.S. futures trended lower as well. This week's focus will be on the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on rate hikes. Oracle's stock fell after missing sales estimates, while Casey's General and Tesla saw gains. JPMorgan's CEO criticized new Basel III regulations, and European indices traded in the green. In Asia-Pacific, markets ended mixed as traders await U.S. inflation data.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to experience a significant decline after a period of rally, according to a popular crypto trader, as the completion of a key Elliott Wave theory pattern suggests a downward trend for the dollar.
The U.S. dollar stabilized as traders await U.S. inflation data, while sterling weakened after the U.K. economy contracted more than expected in July.
The amount of stablecoin USDT on crypto exchanges is increasing, which is seen as a positive sign, while the supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges is decreasing, indicating strong holding sentiment and potential future buying interest.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
The majority of AUD/USD traders are currently holding long positions, indicating a bullish sentiment, but a contrarian approach suggests the possibility of weakness in the exchange rate; technically, the pair is forming a double bottom pattern, and if it breaks above the neckline resistance at 0.6500 to 0.6510, a rally towards 0.6600 could occur, while a break below support at 0.6360 may lead to a drop towards 0.6275 and invalidate the double bottom pattern.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.
Chinese stocks defy regional declines as tech stocks rise, while the 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreases from a 16-year high; US futures tick higher following a 1.6% slide in the S&P 500; bond yields rise in Australia and New Zealand after positive US labor market data; and India's sovereign debt is set to be included in JPMorgan's benchmark emerging-markets index.
The BRICS bloc, including countries like India, China, and Russia, is slowly reducing its dependency on the US dollar and using their local currencies for trade, which could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the dominant global currency.
