The cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable downturn, with the total market capitalization falling by 10% and triggering significant liquidations on futures contracts, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, delays in approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), financial difficulties within the Digital Currency Group (DCG), regulatory tightening, and a strengthening US dollar.
In August, the USD strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index up 2.28%, EURUSD down 1.83%, USDJPY up 2.83%, GBPUSD down 1.96%, USDCAD up 3.25%, and AUDUSD down 4.64%. Meanwhile, major global stock indices experienced declines, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and China's Shanghai composite index.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar experienced weakness due to disappointing economic data, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive in its monetary policy settings, while equities showed modest gains; Chinese PMI numbers beat estimates but concerns about the property sector lingered; USD/JPY dipped before recovering; and the DXY index stabilized after recent losses, with potential support levels identified.
The U.S. dollar index had its eighth consecutive week of gains, while global stock indexes ended slightly higher before key U.S. inflation data, with concerns that high interest rates may remain in place for longer than expected despite the Federal Reserve likely keeping rates unchanged this month. Longer-dated Treasury yields eased, Apple shares rose slightly after two days of losses, and oil prices increased.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats as falling US Treasury yields and risk-on sentiment weigh on the greenback, while technical indicators suggest a potential golden cross and the outcome of the Federal Reserve's meeting could impact its movement.
The Dollar Strength Index (DXY) reached a 10-month high, indicating growing confidence in the USD compared to other fiat currencies; however, concerns about the surge in demand for the USD potentially impacting Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not necessarily interconnected.
The US stock markets broke a four-day losing streak with gains in energy and materials sectors, while the Asian markets saw losses with technology stocks declining and concerns about China's property market stability. European markets opened in the red, awaiting economic data and earnings reports. Crude oil and natural gas prices decreased, while gold, silver, and copper prices fell. US futures and the US dollar index were down.
The co-founders of Glassnode predict that the US Dollar Index (DXY) will decline, leading to a bull run for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's sharp rally on October 1 may have been influenced by a temporary agreement reached by US legislators to avert a government shutdown, combined with the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October, while the US stock markets are also in a favorable position this month. However, the rising US dollar index could pose a challenge for the bulls in the cryptocurrency markets.
The dollar is trading lower for the third consecutive day, reaching its highest value in almost a year before experiencing a doji candlestick, a pattern that can indicate a trend reversal or market consolidation, with implications for gold futures.
