USD/JPY and DXY have a similar currency value, but there are variations in the exchange rates with other currencies such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. USD/JPY is currently overbought compared to DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and oversold compared to JPY/USD. There is a significant 2000 pip relationship between USD/JPY and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and DXY, with specific price levels to watch. However, trading in currencies and financial instruments involves risks, so investors must manage their own risks, including stop loss and margin requirements.
In August, the USD strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index up 2.28%, EURUSD down 1.83%, USDJPY up 2.83%, GBPUSD down 1.96%, USDCAD up 3.25%, and AUDUSD down 4.64%. Meanwhile, major global stock indices experienced declines, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and China's Shanghai composite index.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
The US dollar experienced weakness due to disappointing economic data, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive in its monetary policy settings, while equities showed modest gains; Chinese PMI numbers beat estimates but concerns about the property sector lingered; USD/JPY dipped before recovering; and the DXY index stabilized after recent losses, with potential support levels identified.
The dollar has reached a five-month high as investors anticipate the need for elevated interest rates due to the strong US economy, with factors such as weak growth in China and Europe, rising US yields, and falling equity prices further supporting the case for dollar strength.
The dollar's strength is expected to be difficult to overcome for most major currencies by year-end, according to a Reuters poll of forex strategists, with risks to the greenback outlook skewed to the upside.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
The US dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market, along with discussions of de-dollarization, highlights the divergence between the US and other major economies. The Dollar Index is on an eight-week rally, reaching a record high in international payments, while the euro's share has declined to a record low. In the week ahead, the US CPI and the ECB meeting are expected to be major events, with the US showing signs of inflation and weaker demand, and the euro facing challenges amid stagnation and inflation. China's CPI and PPI have shown some improvement, but the focus will be on yuan loans and real sector data. The eurozone's focus will be on the possibility of a rate hike by the ECB and the release of July industrial production figures. Japan's household consumption continues to fall, and the country may experience a contraction in Q3. The UK will release employment data and GDP details, while Canada will see data on existing home sales and the CPI. Australia will release its August employment data, and Mexico's peso positions may continue to adjust due to the winding down of the currency forward hedging facility.
The US Dollar performed strongly against major currencies, with the Euro experiencing its 8th consecutive weekly loss and the Chinese Yuan performing poorly, while global market sentiment was negative and stock markets weakened. In the coming week, market focus will be on the US inflation report, UK employment and GDP data, Australian employment data, and the ECB rate decision.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to experience a significant decline after a period of rally, according to a popular crypto trader, as the completion of a key Elliott Wave theory pattern suggests a downward trend for the dollar.
The USD is expected to consolidate or correct after a multi-week uptrend, with the BBDXY indicating a potential consolidation and the DXY indicating gains relative to fair value, although bearish cues are not clear at the moment, according to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached new monthly highs as it surpassed $27,000, maintaining its bullish momentum despite the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats as falling US Treasury yields and risk-on sentiment weigh on the greenback, while technical indicators suggest a potential golden cross and the outcome of the Federal Reserve's meeting could impact its movement.
The upcoming episode of "The Trading Week Ahead" with Luca Santos focuses on the potential impact of the US Dollar strength on the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD currency pairs, analyzing the upcoming economic releases in the forex market.
The co-founders of Glassnode predict that the US Dollar Index (DXY) will decline, leading to a bull run for Bitcoin.
The U.S. dollar reached an 11-month high due to strong U.S. economic data, putting pressure on the yen and other currencies.
The U.S. dollar reached a one-week high against other currencies following the release of U.S. consumer prices data, which increased expectations for higher interest rates; safe-haven buying also contributed to the dollar's strength due to escalating Middle East conflict.
The U.S. dollar strengthened to a near 1-week high against a basket of currencies as investors turned away from riskier currencies due to lackluster corporate results and rising Treasury yields.
The upcoming release of strong U.S. GDP data is expected to boost the U.S. dollar and result in lower values for EUR/USD and AUD/USD in the near term.
