Arm, the British chip designer, has published a prospectus for its IPO on the Nasdaq exchange next month, with an expected valuation of $60bn to $70bn, attracting interest from tech giants such as Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia.
In August, the USD strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index up 2.28%, EURUSD down 1.83%, USDJPY up 2.83%, GBPUSD down 1.96%, USDCAD up 3.25%, and AUDUSD down 4.64%. Meanwhile, major global stock indices experienced declines, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and China's Shanghai composite index.
European markets are expected to open higher following UBS's strong quarterly results and positive economic data, while China's factory activity contracted and U.S. job growth slowed in August.
Asia-Pacific markets are expected to have a mixed start to the week as investors await key data from Australia and China, while in the US, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August and traders are betting that the Federal Reserve may not raise rates further this year. Additionally, the highly anticipated IPO of Softbank-backed Arm is expected to arrive later in the month.
The upcoming IPO for Arm, the chip designer, in the US is facing skepticism from investors, leading to reduced expectations for the company's valuation, which is now estimated to be in the range of $50 billion to $55 billion due to concerns over growth rates, profit margins, and political risks associated with its Chinese operations.
Disappointing economic data in Asia-Pacific markets, overinvestment in China, and Chinese electric vehicle companies expanding in Europe are among the key factors impacting global markets, while the price of bitcoin remains volatile with conflicting predictions about its future.
Summary: This episode of the Equity podcast covers the upcoming earnings reports of various companies, the state of the crypto market, Arm's IPO range, the Catalyst Fund investing in climate-focused startups in Africa, Elon Musk's recent anger, and developments in the Chinese semiconductor fund and net neutrality in India.
Stocks fall as higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields put pressure on the market, while Arm prepares for its IPO with a valuation of up to $52 billion and Saudi Arabia and Russia extend their oil production cuts, causing concerns about inflation and raising Treasury yields.
U.S. investors are eagerly anticipating several upcoming IPOs in the coming months, including Arm Holdings, Instacart, Klaviyo, and VNG, as they hope to capitalize on the recent rally in equity markets.
Retail investors should be cautious when buying shares of Arm Holdings' upcoming IPO, as recent data shows that individual investors tend to lose money on blockbuster IPOs, with the 10 biggest US IPOs in the past four years down an average of 47% from their first-day closing price.
European stock markets are expected to open higher on Tuesday as investors await economic data, including U.S. inflation figures and the European Central Bank's rate decision, while Arm IPO's price could potentially surpass $51 per share. Meanwhile, tech investor Paul Meeks plans to buy tech stocks once the market correction subsides, and Federal Reserve officials are reportedly feeling less urgency for another rate hike. HSBC has also named its "must see stocks" in the UK.
Asian markets are expected to finish the week strong due to positive movements in the U.S. and Europe, although the release of economic data from China may dampen the mood, as it includes indicators such as house prices, fixed asset investment, and unemployment. The Chinese government is aiming to support the economy, but doubts remain about reaching the 5% GDP growth target and trade relations with the West continue to deteriorate. However, if investors continue with the bullish momentum from Thursday, these concerns may be temporarily set aside.
Risk appetite remains high in the market as Asian markets follow the rally in Wall Street; China's policy support measures, strong business activity data, and positive IPO of Arm contribute to the optimistic market sentiment.
The recent surge in IPOs, including the listing of Arm, reflects growing market confidence and economic optimism.
Stock futures point to lower opens after a strong rally, while oil remains above $90 per barrel; Adobe sees price target hikes but stock is down; United Auto Workers goes on strike; Arm's IPO success benefits banks; Instacart raises proposed price range for IPO; DoorDash transfers stock listing to Nasdaq; HSBC initiates coverage on Microsoft, Oracle, and Salesforce; China's retail sales exceed expectations; Estee Lauder stock rises.
Arm shares soared nearly 25% on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq, boosting U.S. stocks and sparking hope that the IPO market for tech companies is reviving. Additionally, positive economic data from China and a rebound in retail sales and industrial production contributed to market optimism.
Mixed economic reports and market volatility have raised concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate meeting, with retail sales exceeding expectations but a decline in consumer sentiment and rising fuel prices signaling a potential weakening in consumer spending; the successful IPO of chip designer Arm Holdings has boosted investor sentiment, while the initiation of the autoworkers' strike has negatively impacted markets; all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, with investors closely monitoring data for insights into future decisions.
European markets are poised for a negative start to the week as investors await central bank decisions, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement on interest rates and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, while Australia's central bank and China's People's Bank are also expected to make important releases. Additionally, Bank of America has named two European chip stocks as its "top picks" going into the end of the year.
The Federal Reserve's economic projections will be closely watched for hints on the path of interest rates, with expectations that the dot plot for 2024 may be more cautious due to uncertainty and potential wild cards. Arm Holdings' successful IPO has injected optimism into the IPO market, while the United Auto Workers' strike continues to garner support from President Biden. Turkish President Erdogan has called on Tesla CEO Elon Musk to build a factory in Turkey.
U.S. stocks remained stable as investors anticipated the outcome of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell due to various negative factors including the departure of Lonza's CEO and Societe Generale's cost-cutting plans; in other news, Instacart priced its IPO at $30 per share, valuing the company at around $10 billion, and strikes in the U.S. have caused the highest number of lost labor hours in decades.
The IPO market shows signs of revival with the success of Instacart and Arm IPOs, indicating that investors still have an appetite for stocks.
Instacart prices its IPO at $30 a share, potentially opening higher than expected.
Arm Holdings, the highest valued IPO this year, faces challenges due to its exposure to China risks, declining revenues from China, and uncertainties surrounding the impact of AI on its business, which may temper market optimism and its valuation premium.
