How expanding China-led economic bloc Brics adds to the yuan’s global clout
The US dollar will remain dominant in global trade, but China's yuan is gaining popularity among developing countries such as Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa.
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Posted 8/25/2023, 3:00:16 PM
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China's major state-owned banks are actively buying offshore yuan in an attempt to stabilize the currency amid a darkening economic outlook and strain in the property sector, raising the cost of shorting the Chinese yuan and leading to a rally in the currency's value.
Trade between the US and Mexico has surpassed China and Canada as America's top trade partner, reaching $263 billion in the first four months of 2022, indicating a shift towards regional trade and nearshoring.
While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
The weakening of the U.S. dollar could benefit companies that export products and services, while importers may have to pay more for the goods they bring in, leading them to hold off on purchases. However, a more stable dollar can benefit both importers and exporters.
A group of developing countries known as BRICS, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is determined to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global finance and trade through the process of de-dollarization, which they believe is irreversible and gaining pace. The shift away from dollar dominance is driven by recent geopolitical tensions and the desire to have more choices in global financial interactions, rather than being anti-West or anti-dollar. However, experts believe that the dollar will remain the dominant global currency for the foreseeable future.
China has a complex network of trade partnerships with over 200 countries, regions, and territories, and it has a trade surplus with the majority of them, including the US and India, while having deficits with major Asian economies like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. These trade relationships are influenced by historical, geopolitical, and strategic factors.
China's economic slowdown is worrisome for global markets as it is one of the largest buyers of commodities.
Despite efforts by countries like China and Russia to reduce the dominance of the US dollar, its share in global payments has reached a record high, with 46% of foreign-exchange payments in July involving the greenback, according to SWIFT data.
US trade has shifted away from China due to policies enacted by the Biden and Trump administrations, but US reliance on China-linked supply chains has not necessarily been reduced and consumers have faced higher costs, according to new research presented at a Federal Reserve economic symposium.
The US Dollar performed well against major currencies, with the British Pound, Euro, and Canadian Dollar underperforming, while the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar fared better; the Federal Reserve's indication of a higher terminal rate and potential further borrowing cost increases contributed to the market sentiment, leading to lower US equity markets; upcoming economic data includes consumer confidence, inflation gauges from key European countries, and manufacturing PMI gauges from China.
Despite recent efforts to de-dollarize global trade, Indian Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes the dominance of the US dollar is unlikely to be threatened by emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee and China's yuan. Puri stated that while he wishes the rupee to be the lead currency globally, he is also a realist and recognizes the difficulty of replacing the dollar.
The US dollar experienced a major technical reversal due to a weaker JOLTs report, leading to a drop in US interest rates, while market positioning played a role in the price action; the focus now shifts to personal consumption figures and US jobs data, with the euro and sterling firm but most other G10 currencies softer, and emerging market currencies mixed. In Asia, most large bourses advanced, but Europe's Stoxx 600 fell after rallying in previous sessions, while US index futures traded softer; European bonds are selling up, gold is consolidating, and oil prices are firm. Australia's CPI slowed more than expected, China is expected to release the August PMI, and Japan reports July retail sales. The US dollar has seen no follow-through selling against the yen, yuan, or Australian dollar, while the euro and sterling staged impressive price action. The JOLTS report saw the dollar and US rates reverse lower, and today the US reports advanced merchandise trade figures for July, with the Canadian dollar as the worst performing G10 currency yesterday.
China's currency, the yuan, is at its lowest level against the dollar since the 2008 financial crash, which raises concerns about the country's economic stability and its ability to boost domestic consumption.
The dollar is not likely to lose its status as the global reserve currency despite the expansion of the BRICS group of nations and their aim to find an alternative, as technology and not commodity-based currencies are expected to be the driving force in the future.
Despite the divergence in global economies, the US dollar still remains dominant, holding a record-high share of 46% on SWIFT in July, while the euro's share slipped to a record low.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The US dollar's influence in the oil markets is diminishing as more oil is being transacted in non-dollar currencies, according to JPMorgan.
The US dollar is surging against other major currencies due to concerns over the global economy and rising oil prices.
The dollar has reached a five-month high as investors anticipate the need for elevated interest rates due to the strong US economy, with factors such as weak growth in China and Europe, rising US yields, and falling equity prices further supporting the case for dollar strength.
China is unlikely to become the world's largest economy as its struggles to revive growth and address its property market crisis will prevent it from permanently surpassing the US, according to Bloomberg Economics.
JP Morgan predicts that the U.S. dollar is at risk of losing its global reserve status as BRICS countries increase their use of local currencies for trade settlement, although the chances of this happening in the near future are slim.
The USA is currently the world's largest economy with a GDP of over $23 trillion, followed by China, Japan, Germany, and India.
The rising U.S. dollar is causing concern among foreign officials and investors, but it remains uncertain if anything can be done to stop its rise or if it will negatively impact U.S. equities.
The US is importing fewer goods from China, with Chinese imports making up the lowest share since 2006, as supply chains shift to countries like Mexico and Vietnam.
The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 60% for the first time in decades, as other currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Yen are on the rise due to a growing number of countries settling trade in their national currencies, driven by the de-dollarization process initiated by BRICS to end reliance on the U.S. dollar.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
China's total import and export value in the first 8 months of this year slightly decreased by 0.1 percent compared to the previous year, but exports have continued to grow and the global market share remains stable, highlighting the overall stability of China's foreign trade operations.
China's economic problems are more likely to impact its neighboring countries and Europe than the United States, according to U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, who emphasized the need for China to address its structural economic issues.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The Indian Rupee is weakening against the US dollar, causing concern for Indian authorities who fear that it could impact the country's import and export sectors, with suspicions that India may be taking measures to limit the dollar's growth; similarly, other BRICS member countries like China and Japan are also trying to curb the US dollar's growth.
China's currency, the yuan, has depreciated over 8% against the dollar as the Chinese economy grows less than expected, making it harder to reach its growth target of 5% for 2023, and worries about the economy have intensified due to issues in the real estate sector and financial health of local governments, causing concerns about the future of the yuan which may experience a slow but steady depreciation in the face of a weak dollar and a desire to maintain a trade surplus.
The dollar remains stable in Asia, while the yuan strengthens due to positive economic data from China.
China's struggling economy, including its deflation and property crisis, will have a significant impact on the US due to its high foreign investment exposure in China and the dependence of key exporting countries like Chile, Australia, and Peru on the Chinese market.
China is unlikely to devalue its currency, the yuan, despite concerns that it could do so to boost exports, as such a move would risk intensifying capital flight and tightening financial conditions, according to the Institute of International Finance. Instead, the focus will be on domestic easing measures to maintain steady growth, although there is the challenge of balancing the yuan's stability against the strengthening US dollar and other major currencies.
The US, China, and Russia remain the world's most powerful countries in 2023, according to US News & World Report's global power rankings, with India and Saudi Arabia seeing a jump in their rankings this year.
The US dollar remains stable in Asian trades as the yen and sterling experience slight fluctuations due to upcoming central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, and the Bank of England's possible interest rate increase.
The US dollar remained strong against other currencies as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision, while the yen hovered near a 10-month low amidst speculation of intervention.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
A stronger US dollar has a significant negative impact on emerging market economies compared to smaller advanced economies, as it decreases economic output and trade volume, worsens credit availability and capital inflows, tightens monetary policy, and leads to stock-market declines. Emerging market economies with anchored inflation expectations or flexible exchange rate regimes fare better, and global current account balances decline with a stronger dollar, reflecting a contraction in global trade. Measures such as global safety nets and macroprudential policies can help mitigate these spillover effects.
The BRICS bloc, including countries like India, China, and Russia, is slowly reducing its dependency on the US dollar and using their local currencies for trade, which could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the dominant global currency.