### Summary
The Australian dollar has weakened significantly against the US dollar, euro, and British pound due to factors such as the US economy's strength, China's weak economic rebound, and a shift in the link between commodity prices and the Australian dollar.
### Facts
- The Australian dollar has reached its lowest level against the US dollar since the global financial crisis in 2009.
- The dollar has also reached its lowest level against the euro since the global financial crisis.
- The value of the Australian dollar against the pound is at its weakest since the Brexit poll.
- The US dollar's strength and expectations of a higher interest rate have contributed to the Australian dollar's weakness.
- China's weak economic rebound and deflation concerns have also affected the Australian dollar.
- The link between commodity prices and the Australian dollar has become less reliable recently.
- The trajectory of Shanghai's top 300 companies share index may indicate the future of the Australian dollar.
- A weaker Australian dollar benefits export industries and overseas visitors, while importers may face challenges.
- A tumbling dollar could support economic growth through increased exports and reduced imports.
📉 The Australian dollar is at its lowest against major currencies since the global financial crisis.
🇺🇸 The US dollar's strength and expectations of a higher interest rate contribute to the Australian dollar's weakness.
🇨🇳 China's weak economic rebound and deflation concerns affect the Australian dollar.
📉 The link between commodity prices and the Australian dollar has become less reliable.
📈 A weaker Australian dollar benefits export industries and overseas visitors.
### Summary
Many developing countries are frustrated with the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system and are seeking alternatives, but no concrete proposals have emerged. The dollar's influence can destabilize economies and impose financial sanctions on adversaries. However, the alternatives to the dollar have not gained enough traction, and the dollar remains the most-used currency in global business.
### Facts
- The strength of the US dollar against the Nigerian currency has made imported goods, like garments, unaffordable for local consumers.
- The BRICS bloc, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, along with other emerging market countries, are meeting to express their grievances about the dominance of the dollar in the global financial system.
- The BRICS countries have discussed expanding trade in their own currencies to reduce reliance on the dollar.
- The US dollar is the most-used currency in global business and has shrugged off past challenges to its preeminence.
- The alternatives to the dollar, such as the euro and China's yuan, have not gained enough international gravitas.
- The dollar's influence can impose financial sanctions and destabilize economies.
- Many developing countries, like Kenya and Zimbabwe, have expressed their frustrations with the dollar and are seeking alternatives.
- Despite the frustrations, the dollar still has its supporters and is seen as a stabilizing force in some economies.
### Summary
India's retail inflation in July rose to 7.44%, higher than market expectations, and is expected to remain elevated in Q3. The global currency market is experiencing significant turbulence, with the USD appreciating despite economic weaknesses. Heightened inflation and volatility in the currency market pose risks to the Indian market.
### Facts
- India's retail inflation in July was 7.44%, exceeding market expectations.
- Elevated inflation is expected to continue in Q3.
- The global currency market is experiencing turmoil, with the USD appreciating despite economic frailty.
- FII outflows have increased, but India's equity market is performing better than other emerging markets.
- The RBI has revised its inflation forecast upward and expects inflation to decrease to 5.7% in Q3.
- High interest rates and inflation are expected to impact corporate earnings growth and valuation.
- India's one-year forward P/E valuation has decreased from 20x to 18.5x.
- Bond yields have increased, leading to a divestment of equities and acquisition of bonds.
- The domestic market is supported by restrained FII divestment, robust purchasing by DIIs and retail participants, and outperformance compared to other emerging markets.
- Selling in global equities has increased due to concerns of deflation and defaults in China's realty and finance sectors.
- The author expects the selling from FIIs to continue in the short-term due to elevated global bond yields, US credit downgrade, and slowdown in emerging markets, but India will continue to outperform.
- In the last month, the MSCI World index was down 4.2% compared to MSCI India's 1.85% decrease.
### Summary
Many developing countries, including BRICS nations, are frustrated with the dominance of the U.S. dollar and will discuss alternatives at a summit in Johannesburg. However, the dollar's position as the dominant global currency remains unchallenged.
### Facts
- The strength of the U.S. dollar against local currencies in developing countries has caused prices of foreign goods to soar, leading to reduced sales and job layoffs.
- The BRICS bloc, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, along with other emerging market countries, will discuss their grievances against the U.S. dollar's dominance at a summit in Johannesburg.
- The BRICS countries have previously talked about introducing their own currency, but no concrete proposals have emerged. However, they have discussed expanding trade in their own currencies to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.
- The U.S. dollar is the most widely used currency in global business and previous challenges to its dominance have failed.
- The BRICS countries launched the New Development Bank in 2015 as an alternative to the U.S. and European-dominated International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
- Developing countries are concerned about the U.S.'s use of the dollar's global influence to impose financial sanctions and the destabilizing effects of fluctuations in the dollar on their economies.
- While the euro and China's yuan have gained some traction in recent years, they still do not rival the dollar in terms of international gravitas.
- The alternatives to the dollar have not been able to gain dominance, and any shift away from the dollar will take time and trust.
- Some countries, such as Argentina and Zimbabwe, have experienced economic turmoil and have turned to the U.S. dollar for stability.
### Summary
The strength of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, such as the Nigerian naira and Zimbabwean dollar, has made it difficult for local consumers to buy foreign goods, leading to economic troubles in these countries.
### Facts
- 💰 The strength of the U.S. dollar has pushed the price of foreign goods beyond the reach of local consumers in Nigeria.
- 💸 Many developing countries are unhappy with the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system.
- 🌍 The BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, will discuss their grievances against the dollar at a meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa.
- 💵 The alternatives to the U.S. dollar, such as the euro and China's yuan, have not been able to rival its dominance.
- 🇦🇷 In Argentina, a presidential candidate is calling for the U.S. dollar to replace the country's troubled peso.
- 💼 In Zimbabwe, the U.S. dollar is widely used in transactions due to the instability of the Zimbabwean dollar.
- 💸 Vendors in Zimbabwe are even mending damaged U.S. dollar bills for a small fee due to a shortage.
### Credit
By: Dionne Searcey and Constant Méheut
Source: The Washington Post
While strategic competitors in emerging markets are calling for change and the share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has declined, it is unlikely that there will be a major shift in the US dollar's role as the central global currency due to the stability and reputation of the US government, as well as the challenges and limitations of other options like the renminbi.
The US dollar remains strong against major peers and the yen, as Treasury yields rise amid expectations of high US interest rates for a longer period, while China's central bank sets a stronger-than-expected daily midpoint for the yuan to counter mounting pressure on the currency.
The US Dollar strengthens as several BRIC countries express support for the currency, while Fed officials remain quiet on rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions boost the Greenback during US trading hours.
The weakening of the U.S. dollar could benefit companies that export products and services, while importers may have to pay more for the goods they bring in, leading them to hold off on purchases. However, a more stable dollar can benefit both importers and exporters.
A group of developing countries known as BRICS, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is determined to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global finance and trade through the process of de-dollarization, which they believe is irreversible and gaining pace. The shift away from dollar dominance is driven by recent geopolitical tensions and the desire to have more choices in global financial interactions, rather than being anti-West or anti-dollar. However, experts believe that the dollar will remain the dominant global currency for the foreseeable future.
The Indian rupee is expected to rise due to a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and weak economic data, leading to a favorable near-term outlook.
The depreciating exchange rate of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is leading to a potential economic disaster, with increased inflation, higher prices for petroleum and fuel, and a rise in poverty and unemployment.
The Pakistani rupee weakened further against the US dollar in the interbank market due to higher demand and uncertainty, while the open market remained stable; however, insiders noted that currency dealers were selling the dollar at higher rates in the open market.
The rupee's decline against the US dollar is being attributed to the powerful influence of the grey market and the International Monetary Fund's involvement in Pakistan's financial system, leading to a loss of control over the exchange rate and economic uncertainties.
The Indian rupee remains steady against the US dollar due to corporate dollar demand and importers' activities.
Despite recent efforts to de-dollarize global trade, Indian Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes the dominance of the US dollar is unlikely to be threatened by emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee and China's yuan. Puri stated that while he wishes the rupee to be the lead currency globally, he is also a realist and recognizes the difficulty of replacing the dollar.
The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar due to demand from state-run banks and the potential impact of U.S. GDP data.
The Indian rupee is expected to strengthen against the US dollar due to weaker-than-expected US job openings, causing a decline in the dollar index and Treasury yields.
The dollar's status as a global reserve currency is facing challenges as countries like China and India promote trade in their own currencies, digital currencies gain popularity, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the international monetary system dominated by the dollar.
The US dollar is surging against other major currencies due to concerns over the global economy and rising oil prices.
The Indian rupee hits a 10-month low against the US dollar due to concerns over rising oil prices and a decline in Asian currencies.
The rising U.S. dollar is causing concern among foreign officials and investors, but it remains uncertain if anything can be done to stop its rise or if it will negatively impact U.S. equities.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
The Indian rupee could reach record lows against the U.S. dollar if oil prices continue to rise, according to the head of global foreign exchange at Jefferies, Brad Bechtel, although he believes the rupee will be one of the more stable currencies in emerging markets. The rupee is currently moving between 83 and 85 against the U.S. dollar, and if oil prices were to fall, it could fall close to the 82 levels.
The value of the U.S. dollar has been strengthening against the Euro and the British Pound due to the continuing strength of the U.S. economy and the weakness of the European economies.
The Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hints at a potential shift away from negative interest rates.
The US dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency is at risk due to growing debt in the US, according to economist Barry Eichengreen, highlighting the importance of controlling debt to maintain the dollar's global role.
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher against the US dollar, but higher crude oil prices and support on USD/INR are likely to limit its gains.
China is unlikely to devalue its currency, the yuan, despite concerns that it could do so to boost exports, as such a move would risk intensifying capital flight and tightening financial conditions, according to the Institute of International Finance. Instead, the focus will be on domestic easing measures to maintain steady growth, although there is the challenge of balancing the yuan's stability against the strengthening US dollar and other major currencies.
The value of the Indian rupee is at risk of declining significantly due to surging oil prices and the dollar's rally, despite interventions by the Reserve Bank of India to prevent a fall.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
The BRICS bloc, including countries like India, China, and Russia, is slowly reducing its dependency on the US dollar and using their local currencies for trade, which could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the dominant global currency.
The Pakistani rupee has gained significantly against the US dollar due to administrative measures taken by the interim government, leading to a possible reduction in petroleum prices in the upcoming review.
The Pakistani rupee strengthened against the US dollar in the interbank market due to the government's crackdown on the money market.
The Japanese Yen is weakening against the US Dollar as interest rate differentials continue to weigh on the Yen, with markets suspecting that the Bank of Japan may step in to support the currency at current levels.
The US dollar remains strong against major currencies due to rising US bond yields, while the yen is edging closer to levels that may trigger intervention by the Japanese government.
The Pakistani rupee has continued to rise against the US dollar, trading below Rs290, due to a crackdown on the money market, but analysts warn that the gains may only be short-term.
The U.S. dollar is gaining strength, causing concerns about interest rates and negatively impacting the S&P 500.
India's central bank is selling U.S. dollars to prevent the rupee from reaching a record low.
An obsession with controlling the rupee-dollar exchange rate in Pakistan has led to ineffective administrative measures and failed attempts at stabilization, as the country's heavy dependence on imports and mounting external debt hinder economic restructuring and contribute to the rupee's depreciation. The need for a long-term plan focused on increasing exports, investment, and macroeconomic stability is emphasized.
Bitcoin and gold are expected to thrive amidst fiscal problems in the US economy and a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve, according to macro investor Luke Gromen. Gromen also suggests that the launch of a gold-backed currency by the BRICS alliance may weaken the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
The Pakistani rupee has strengthened against the US dollar for a month due to a military-backed crackdown on currency smugglers, with analysts expecting the rupee to reach 280 to the dollar in the near future.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to strengthen further, potentially falling below 280 against the US dollar, due to factors such as the anticipation of the IMF's next tranche, improved balance of payments, and government actions against illegal dollar trade.
