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Rupee Rallies Further Against Dollar on Crackdown Against Speculators

  • Rupee rose further on Tuesday, trading below Rs290 against US dollar in interbank market

  • Gains extend upward trajectory since army-backed crackdown on illegal dollar trade began this month

  • Rupee also made headway in open market, trading at Rs292 vs previous day's Rs293

  • Analysts say surge primarily due to administrative measures like crackdowns on speculative elements

  • Some say current gains short-term; long-term sustainability needs dollar inflows from remittances, exports, investments

dawn.com
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The Pakistani rupee has hit a historic low against the US dollar due to increased demand for the dollar following eased import restrictions and political uncertainty ahead of the general elections.
Pakistan's rupee dropped to a record low due to the easing of import restrictions, which has increased demand for the dollar.
The Indian rupee is expected to rise due to a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and weak economic data, leading to a favorable near-term outlook.
The depreciating exchange rate of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is leading to a potential economic disaster, with increased inflation, higher prices for petroleum and fuel, and a rise in poverty and unemployment.
The Pakistani rupee weakened further against the US dollar in the interbank market due to higher demand and uncertainty, while the open market remained stable; however, insiders noted that currency dealers were selling the dollar at higher rates in the open market.
The rupee's decline against the US dollar is being attributed to the powerful influence of the grey market and the International Monetary Fund's involvement in Pakistan's financial system, leading to a loss of control over the exchange rate and economic uncertainties.
The Pakistani rupee has fallen below 300 to a US dollar due to factors such as the rise of the dollar, uncertainty surrounding general elections, and a political/judicial/constitutional crisis, resulting in eroded business confidence, increased inflation, and reduced industrial output.
The Indian rupee remains steady against the US dollar due to corporate dollar demand and importers' activities.
Asia-Pacific markets set to rise following tech rally on Wall Street, Australian inflation numbers anticipated, and the U.S. dollar reaches its highest level against the yen in 2023.
The Indian rupee is expected to strengthen against the US dollar due to weaker-than-expected US job openings, causing a decline in the dollar index and Treasury yields.
The consistent devaluation of the Pakistani rupee is causing inflation and forcing the central bank to raise interest rates, leading to concerns about the economy and market confidence.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to trade within a narrow range against the dollar in the upcoming week following its recent sharp depreciation, although some analysts anticipate continued pressure on the currency due to capital withdrawals, political unrest, and economic uncertainty.
The current economic crisis in Pakistan is driven by high inflation, mismanaged policies, and failure to ensure price stability, leading to a weakened currency and a struggling middle class, but implementing radical reforms such as demonetization and swapping out foreign currency debt can potentially alleviate the situation and revive the economy.
Gold prices in Pakistan continued to decline for the fourth consecutive day, in line with international rates, as the domestic price of 24 karat gold fell by Rs5,800 per tola and Rs4,972 per 10 grammes to settle at Rs216,500 and Rs185,614 respectively, while the price of silver 24 karat dropped by Rs50 per tola and Rs42.87 per 10 grammes to settle at Rs2,650 and Rs2,271.94 respectively; meanwhile, the rupee gained Rs2.03 against the US dollar in the interbank trading, closing at Rs304.94.
The Indian rupee could reach record lows against the U.S. dollar if oil prices continue to rise, according to the head of global foreign exchange at Jefferies, Brad Bechtel, although he believes the rupee will be one of the more stable currencies in emerging markets. The rupee is currently moving between 83 and 85 against the U.S. dollar, and if oil prices were to fall, it could fall close to the 82 levels.
The Pakistani rupee's rise against the dollar is attributed to a crackdown on hoarding and illegal outflows of the greenback as well as increased vigilance in the Afghan transit trade.
The Indian Rupee is weakening against the US dollar, causing concern for Indian authorities who fear that it could impact the country's import and export sectors, with suspicions that India may be taking measures to limit the dollar's growth; similarly, other BRICS member countries like China and Japan are also trying to curb the US dollar's growth.
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher against the US dollar, but higher crude oil prices and support on USD/INR are likely to limit its gains.
The Pakistani military's crackdown on the black market has led to a significant influx of dollars into the interbank and open markets, resulting in the recovery of the Pakistan rupee and its strengthening beyond the official rate, with the campaign being credited to army chief General Asim Munir.
The Pakistani rupee has depreciated significantly in the first three weeks of the interim government's tenure, reaching a record low and making it the worst-performing Asian currency this quarter, due to factors such as a change in government and high inflation. The State Bank of Pakistan is implementing measures to address the economic challenges, including reforming the exchange rate and modernizing the banking system.
Pakistan's exports saw a significant increase of 22.45% in the first two months of the fiscal year 2023-24, reaching Rs1.27 trillion, while imports decreased by 2.42%.
The Sindh governor claims that the Pakistani rupee will further decline against the US dollar, with petrol prices expected to fall on October 1 due to the appreciation of the rupee and the government's crackdown on currency smugglers, hoarders, and black marketers.
The Pakistani rupee has gained significantly against the US dollar due to administrative measures taken by the interim government, leading to a possible reduction in petroleum prices in the upcoming review.
Pakistan is facing a major economic crisis with high inflation, insufficient public resources, and policy decisions influenced by vested interests, according to the World Bank. The country needs to make hard choices and prioritize coordinated, efficient, and adequately financed service delivery to improve human development outcomes. Additionally, the Pakistani Rupee has reached a record low against the US dollar.
The Pakistani rupee strengthened against the US dollar in the interbank market due to the government's crackdown on the money market.
The author argues that there are underlying pressures responsible for an ongoing spiral of devaluation in Pakistan's economy, and these pressures make it difficult to sustain recent gains in the value of the rupee.
India's central bank is selling U.S. dollars to prevent the rupee from reaching a record low.
An obsession with controlling the rupee-dollar exchange rate in Pakistan has led to ineffective administrative measures and failed attempts at stabilization, as the country's heavy dependence on imports and mounting external debt hinder economic restructuring and contribute to the rupee's depreciation. The need for a long-term plan focused on increasing exports, investment, and macroeconomic stability is emphasized.
The Pakistani rupee has strengthened against the US dollar for a month due to a military-backed crackdown on currency smugglers, with analysts expecting the rupee to reach 280 to the dollar in the near future.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to strengthen further, potentially falling below 280 against the US dollar, due to factors such as the anticipation of the IMF's next tranche, improved balance of payments, and government actions against illegal dollar trade.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to gain further strength against the US dollar as the next IMF review approaches, with analysts predicting continued appreciation in a controlled environment. The IMF review in November will determine if the rupee's performance can be sustained, and the currency has already experienced a 1.43% rise over the last five sessions.
Pakistan's ability to generate dollar loans has decreased in the past two months, resulting in the depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year, Pakistan secured $3.52 billion from multilateral and bilateral creditors, but commercial loans and international bonds have not been successful. The government must secure $14.1 billion in the remaining three quarters to maintain comfortable foreign exchange reserves and avoid a balance-of-payments crisis.
The US dollar remains strong, supported by rising yields and tensions in the Middle East, but it is too early to determine if it has reached its peak, as the market awaits further tightening from the Federal Reserve and economic convergence among countries.