### Summary
The current account deficit in Pakistan reduced by 36% in July FY24 compared to the previous year, but July saw a deficit for the first time in four months.
### Facts
- 💸 The current account deficit decreased by 36% to $809 million in July FY24.
- 💰 July's current account was in deficit for the first time in four months, with June having a surplus of $504 million.
- 📉 FY23 successfully reduced the current account deficit to $2.387 billion from $17.481 billion in FY22.
- 🌍 The large current account deficit in FY23 led to a risk of sovereign default, which was addressed with assistance from the IMF, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
- 📉 Goods exports in July decreased by $101 million, while goods imports rose by 23.5% to $4.220 billion.
- 💼 Pakistan's services imports were $811 million, higher than services exports of $538 million in July, resulting in a net decline of $273 million.
- 📉 The trade deficit in FY23 reduced by 42.9% to $27.59 billion.
Source: [Dawn](https://www.dawn.com/news/1651754/)
### Summary
Thailand's economy grew slower than expected in Q2 2023, with tourism offsetting weaker exports due to global demand slowdown.
### Facts
- 💼 Thailand's economy expanded by 1.8% in Q2 2023, lower than the expected 3.1% growth.
- 📉 The government revised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 2.5% to 3.0%, down from the previous range of 2.7% to 3.7%.
- 📊 Q2 GDP rose by 0.2% on a quarterly basis, below the forecasted increase of 1.2%.
- 🌐 Thailand's economy has been supported by the tourism sector and private consumption growth amid weak global demand.
- 📉 Exports, a key driver of growth, have contracted since October 2022, primarily due to China's slowdown as its major trading partner.
### Summary
India's total exports and imports of goods and services surpassed $800 billion in the first half of 2023, with a healthy growth in the services sector offsetting a slowdown in global demand.
### Facts
- 📈 Exports of goods and services rose by 1.5% to $385.4 billion in January-June 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
- 📉 Imports declined by 5.9% to $415.5 billion during the first half of 2023, compared to January-June 2022.
- 💵 Standalone goods exports dropped by 8.1% to $218.7 billion, while imports contracted by 8.3% to $325.7 billion.
- 💼 Services exports grew by 17.7% to $166.7 billion, while imports rose by 3.7% to $89.8 billion during the six-month period.
- 💰 The depreciation of the Indian Rupee didn't prevent the decline in merchandise exports, and weak global demand and loss of competitiveness in labor-intensive sectors contributed to the modest decline.
- 🌍 Several factors, including conflicts, inflation, monetary policies, and financial uncertainty, are expected to weaken world trade in 2023.
- 🛡️ India should focus on increasing product quality and supply chain competitiveness, retain policy space in free trade agreements and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), and be prepared to respond to unilateral policy decisions.
- 📊 Among the product categories contributing to India's exports, 11 out of 29 registered positive export growth, while 18 declined during January-June 2023.
- 📱 Smartphone exports surged to $7.5 billion in the first half of 2023, up from $2.5 billion in the same period in 2022.
- 🌐 India's exports declined in 134 of the 240 countries it exports goods to, with major declines observed in the USA, UAE, China, Bangladesh, and Germany.
- 🌐 India's export promotion should focus on the 41 countries where its exports exceed $1 billion, accounting for 87% of its exports.
- 👥 The top 15 countries with which India has the highest trade deficit include China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Switzerland.
- 📉 The share of free trade agreement partners in India's merchandise exports decreased from 30.1% in the first half of 2022 to 26.8% in 2023.
- ⛽ Import of crude petroleum declined by 7.6% to $73.2 billion in January-June 2023, with Russia's share in India's import of petroleum crude increasing significantly.
- 🌍 Import growth from major suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE declined during this period.
Pakistan's textile industry is facing significant challenges, with textile exports falling by 15% and many mills and manufacturing units shutting down or facing closure due to lack of orders. The industry is also grappling with economic slowdown, disruptions in the global supply chain, and a decrease in cotton production. These issues have resulted in job losses and a decline in export volume, impacting not just the economy but also the livelihoods of many workers.
The Pakistani rupee has reached a historic low of 300.37 against the US dollar in the interbank market due to increased demand and a dollar liquidity crunch caused by dropping exports and remittances, with experts suggesting that the interbank market is trying to catch up with the kerb market.
The fall in the value of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is expected to cause a surge in inflation, with petrol and diesel prices projected to increase by over Rs13 per litre due to the exchange rate, potentially reaching double digits if the dollar continues to appreciate. Additionally, the rise in dollar value will also lead to further increases in electricity tariffs, making the lives of citizens more difficult.
Short-term inflation in Pakistan increased by 25.34% on a year-on-year basis due to a surge in prices of kitchen items, although it decelerated from the previous week's rate of increase.
The caretaker government in Pakistan has raised the price of petrol by Rs14.91 per litre and high-speed diesel by Rs18.44 per litre, bringing them to Rs305.36 per litre and Rs311.84 per litre respectively, due to currency depreciation and increasing international oil prices.
Pakistan is expecting $60-70 billion in foreign investment over the next three to five years through the Special Investment Facilitation Council, according to interim prime minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar.
Pakistan's economy has experienced a slowdown in its structural transformation, with a significant decrease in the share of agriculture and a lack of growth in the industry sector, indicating a premature de-industrialization contrary to successful developing nations, emphasizing the need for policies to boost industrialization and address taxation inequities.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to trade within a narrow range against the dollar in the upcoming week following its recent sharp depreciation, although some analysts anticipate continued pressure on the currency due to capital withdrawals, political unrest, and economic uncertainty.
The Pakistani rupee's rise against the dollar is attributed to a crackdown on hoarding and illegal outflows of the greenback as well as increased vigilance in the Afghan transit trade.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to increase interest rates in order to address high inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, which have led to a record low value for the rupee. A Reuters poll shows that 15 out of 17 analysts are forecasting a rate hike, with some expecting an increase of at least 150 basis points. The country's economic recovery is being challenged by IMF loan conditions, import restrictions, and subsidies removal, which have caused spikes in energy prices and elevated food inflation.
The short-term inflation in Pakistan increased by 26.25% due to a rise in the retail price of vegetables, particularly tomatoes and onions, caused by the closure of the Torkham border with Afghanistan.
The caretaker government of Pakistan has raised petrol and diesel prices to record levels, leading to a surge in inflation and impacting the prices of essential commodities, while the country continues to invest in and expand its nuclear weapons program.
The unprecedented increase in fuel prices in Pakistan is expected to cause a significant rise in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index projected to reach as high as 30% to 32% in September 2023.
The United Arab Emirates saw a 31.8% increase in revenue in 2022, supporting an overall fiscal surplus, as the country focuses on developing its non-oil sectors such as trade, tourism, manufacturing, logistics, and financial services.
Pakistan's poverty rate has risen to 39.4% with 12.5 million more people falling below the poverty line, prompting the World Bank to urge the country to take urgent steps to achieve financial stability by taxing agriculture and real estate and cutting wasteful expenditures.
Pakistan is facing a major economic crisis with high inflation, insufficient public resources, and policy decisions influenced by vested interests, according to the World Bank. The country needs to make hard choices and prioritize coordinated, efficient, and adequately financed service delivery to improve human development outcomes. Additionally, the Pakistani Rupee has reached a record low against the US dollar.
Pakistan's consumption-oriented growth model, heavily reliant on foreign currency loans and imports, is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, and a shift towards investment-led growth and increasing the investment-to-GDP ratio is necessary to generate foreign currency and achieve sustainable growth.
The Pakistani rupee has continued to rise against the US dollar, trading below Rs290, due to a crackdown on the money market, but analysts warn that the gains may only be short-term.
The author argues that there are underlying pressures responsible for an ongoing spiral of devaluation in Pakistan's economy, and these pressures make it difficult to sustain recent gains in the value of the rupee.
The Pakistani government has issued new debt of over Rs2.5 trillion in the first three months of the current financial year to address its rising fiscal deficit, indicating a reliance on domestic sources as external financing decreases and revenues decline.
Pakistan's inflation rate rose to 31.4% year-on-year in September, and the Ministry of Finance expects inflation to remain high in the coming months, with a predicted range of 29-31%.
The Pakistani rupee has strengthened against the US dollar for a month due to a military-backed crackdown on currency smugglers, with analysts expecting the rupee to reach 280 to the dollar in the near future.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to strengthen further, potentially falling below 280 against the US dollar, due to factors such as the anticipation of the IMF's next tranche, improved balance of payments, and government actions against illegal dollar trade.
Illegal activities such as black market currency trade, gold smuggling, and oil smuggling are costing Pakistan's economy USD 23 billion per year, leading to currency devaluation, inflation, and a loss of government revenue.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Pakistan's economy to perform better than expected, with a growth of 2.5% this year and 5% in the next fiscal year, despite macroeconomic challenges, surpassing projections from other multilateral agencies. The IMF also maintains a global growth forecast of 3% for this year but warns of high inflation and downgrades outlooks for China and Germany.
Short-term inflation in Pakistan reached a new high for the fifth consecutive week due to rising prices of petroleum products and other essential items, potentially impacting various sectors such as transportation.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to gain further strength against the US dollar as the next IMF review approaches, with analysts predicting continued appreciation in a controlled environment. The IMF review in November will determine if the rupee's performance can be sustained, and the currency has already experienced a 1.43% rise over the last five sessions.
