### Summary
The caretaker government in Pakistan has several key challenges to address, including managing the economy, stabilizing the currency, ensuring energy security, and attracting foreign investments.
### Facts
- 📉 The transition period until the next elections is expected to last five to six months, and the caretaker government must not be complacent in addressing economic issues.
- 🧱 A capable team, including a central banker, a veteran bureaucrat, and an expert planning commissioner, has been appointed to lead the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and tackle political interference.
- 💱 The depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is a concern, and measures should be taken to discourage hoarding and build up net international reserves.
- ⚡️ Energy security is critical, and immediate actions should be taken to ensure full recovery of costs in the gas and power sectors. Direct cash transfers and full recovery of taxes in the electricity and fuel prices may be necessary.
- 💸 Negotiating a new IMF program is expected after the current program expires, and efforts should be made to attract investments from friendly Arab countries under the SIFC.
- 📊 Improving the fiscal side of the economy is essential, including widening the tax net, targeting untaxed income, and digitizing the tax collection process.
- 🗳 The caretaker government should focus on effective governance and decision-making, setting an example for the next government. The cabinet's performance will be judged on how well they manage the economy.
- 🌍 Restoring confidence in Pakistan's economy and addressing key indicators such as investments, inflation, fiscal prudence, and circular debt are essential for a stable future.
Note: The text provided contains a mention of the publication date (August 21st, 2023). Since it is already past this date, some information may be outdated.
The fall in the value of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is expected to cause a surge in inflation, with petrol and diesel prices projected to increase by over Rs13 per litre due to the exchange rate, potentially reaching double digits if the dollar continues to appreciate. Additionally, the rise in dollar value will also lead to further increases in electricity tariffs, making the lives of citizens more difficult.
Short-term inflation in Pakistan increased by 25.34% on a year-on-year basis due to a surge in prices of kitchen items, although it decelerated from the previous week's rate of increase.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) is likely to recommend a hike in petroleum products prices in Pakistan due to an increase in global oil rates and depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, with petrol expected to increase by Rs12 per litre and diesel by Rs14.83 per litre from September 1, 2023, leading to concerns of further inflation in the country.
Diesel prices in the US have reached their highest levels since March and are expected to continue rising due to refinery disruptions and increased demand during the fall agricultural harvest season and winter heating months, posing challenges for retailers and putting upward pressure on prices.
The caretaker government of Pakistan has increased petrol and diesel prices by over Rs14 due to the rising trend of petroleum prices in the international market and exchange rate variations.
The recent increase in energy prices in Pakistan has led to protests over high inflation and electricity bills, with demonstrators burning utility bills, blocking highways, and attacking power company offices. The caretaker government has refused to lower energy prices without approval from the IMF, and has further increased petrol and diesel prices by over 14 Pakistani Rupees (PKR), surpassing PKR 300.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to increase interest rates in order to address high inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, which have led to a record low value for the rupee. A Reuters poll shows that 15 out of 17 analysts are forecasting a rate hike, with some expecting an increase of at least 150 basis points. The country's economic recovery is being challenged by IMF loan conditions, import restrictions, and subsidies removal, which have caused spikes in energy prices and elevated food inflation.
The caretaker government has increased the price of petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) in response to rising international oil prices, with petrol now costing Rs331.38 per litre and HSD priced at Rs329.18 per litre.
The short-term inflation in Pakistan increased by 26.25% due to a rise in the retail price of vegetables, particularly tomatoes and onions, caused by the closure of the Torkham border with Afghanistan.
The recent record-breaking increase in petrol prices in Karachi has had severe consequences for ordinary people, with many unable to afford fuel and resorting to alternative means of transportation, such as motorcycles or bicycles, while others contemplate selling their vehicles altogether.
The caretaker government in Pakistan has announced a historic hike in petrol and diesel prices, with fuel costing over ₹330 per litre, further burdening the public already facing high inflation.
The unprecedented increase in fuel prices in Pakistan is expected to cause a significant rise in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index projected to reach as high as 30% to 32% in September 2023.
Pakistan's exports saw a significant increase of 22.45% in the first two months of the fiscal year 2023-24, reaching Rs1.27 trillion, while imports decreased by 2.42%.
Caretaker Commerce and Industries Minister Gohar Ejaz expresses hope for a decrease in petrol prices in Pakistan as the rupee strengthens, while interim Information Minister Murtaza Solangi expects a decrease in the coming days; the caretaker government faced criticism for back-to-back increases in petrol prices.
Pakistan is facing a major economic crisis with high inflation, insufficient public resources, and policy decisions influenced by vested interests, according to the World Bank. The country needs to make hard choices and prioritize coordinated, efficient, and adequately financed service delivery to improve human development outcomes. Additionally, the Pakistani Rupee has reached a record low against the US dollar.
Pakistan is facing a deep economic crisis that has negatively impacted living standards, the private sector, and the environment, and the World Bank argues that urgent policy shifts are needed to address low quality basic services, improve fiscal management, create a more dynamic and open economy, and address failures and distortions in the agri-food and energy sectors.
The caretaker government in Pakistan has hinted at lowering fuel prices in the next review, following a 20% increase since taking office, and assured efforts are being made to stabilize the economy.
The author argues that there are underlying pressures responsible for an ongoing spiral of devaluation in Pakistan's economy, and these pressures make it difficult to sustain recent gains in the value of the rupee.
Fuel prices in Australia are rising, which could contribute to an increase in quarterly inflation, leading to concerns about the future of oil and the reliance on fossil fuels as efforts to reduce carbon emissions continue.
The high cost of electricity in Pakistan is due to poor governance, policy lapses, volatile global energy prices, and rupee devaluation, leading to inflated energy costs, a lack of dispatching excess power to consumers, and inadequate transmission and distribution systems; to address these issues, the government should implement a multifaceted strategy that includes shifting to local renewable energy sources, upgrading and modernizing the power supply network, promoting energy efficiency and conservation measures, and offering subsidies and tax exemptions for renewable energy technologies.
The government of Pakistan is preparing to increase gas tariffs across various sectors, including residential, fertiliser, export, and commercial, in order to tackle the rising circular debt in the gas sector and address the unsustainable nature of the industry.
Pakistan's annual inflation rate increased to 31.4% in September, driven by high fuel and energy prices, as the country faces challenges in its economic recovery under a caretaker government following an IMF bailout program that imposed conditions complicating inflation control efforts.
Short-term inflation in Pakistan reached a new high for the fifth consecutive week due to rising prices of petroleum products and other essential items, potentially impacting various sectors such as transportation.
