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Rupee Under Pressure: Indian Currency Could Weaken Further If Oil Prices Stay High, Fed Hikes Rates

  • Indian rupee could weaken to 83-85 per dollar if oil prices stay high, says Jefferies FX head
  • Higher oil prices pose a challenge for the rupee, sustained increase could push to record lows
  • Rupee one of the more stable EM currencies, but would weaken if RBI lets go
  • Upside still left for dollar index, not likely to rise above 110 or fall under 100
  • Market pricing in Fed rate cuts too aggressively, could have couple more hikes
  • Rupee and renminbi top contenders for internationalization, but long journey ahead
  • Ensuring liquidity in non-dollar pairs requires central bank action
reuters.com
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The Pakistani rupee has hit a historic low against the US dollar due to increased demand for the dollar following eased import restrictions and political uncertainty ahead of the general elections.
Pakistan's rupee dropped to a record low due to the easing of import restrictions, which has increased demand for the dollar.
The Indian rupee is expected to rise due to a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and weak economic data, leading to a favorable near-term outlook.
Oil prices fall on weak economic data and anticipation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on interest rates. Concerns about global demand and rising supply, along with disappointing manufacturing data, contribute to the downward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, Iran's oil output is expected to increase and the US is considering easing sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector.
The fall in the value of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is expected to cause a surge in inflation, with petrol and diesel prices projected to increase by over Rs13 per litre due to the exchange rate, potentially reaching double digits if the dollar continues to appreciate. Additionally, the rise in dollar value will also lead to further increases in electricity tariffs, making the lives of citizens more difficult.
India's foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a two-month low of $594.89 billion due to a decline of $7.27 billion, the largest weekly fall in over six months, as the rupee dropped to a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar.
The Pakistani rupee weakened further against the US dollar in the interbank market due to higher demand and uncertainty, while the open market remained stable; however, insiders noted that currency dealers were selling the dollar at higher rates in the open market.
The Pakistani rupee has fallen below 300 to a US dollar due to factors such as the rise of the dollar, uncertainty surrounding general elections, and a political/judicial/constitutional crisis, resulting in eroded business confidence, increased inflation, and reduced industrial output.
The Indian rupee remains steady against the US dollar due to corporate dollar demand and importers' activities.
Despite recent efforts to de-dollarize global trade, Indian Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes the dominance of the US dollar is unlikely to be threatened by emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee and China's yuan. Puri stated that while he wishes the rupee to be the lead currency globally, he is also a realist and recognizes the difficulty of replacing the dollar.
India has recently entered into a historic oil deal with the UAE, marking a significant move away from the US dollar; however, Indian Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri believes that de-dollarization is not yet taking hold and that the US dollar's dominance remains unchallenged.
The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar due to demand from state-run banks and the potential impact of U.S. GDP data.
The Indian rupee is expected to strengthen against the US dollar due to weaker-than-expected US job openings, causing a decline in the dollar index and Treasury yields.
U.S. crude oil stocks have reached their lowest level this year and are expected to decrease further, leading to a tight crude oil market and a potential increase in global oil prices.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to trade within a narrow range against the dollar in the upcoming week following its recent sharp depreciation, although some analysts anticipate continued pressure on the currency due to capital withdrawals, political unrest, and economic uncertainty.
The US dollar's influence in the oil markets is diminishing as more oil is being transacted in non-dollar currencies, according to JPMorgan.
The Indian rupee hits a 10-month low against the US dollar due to concerns over rising oil prices and a decline in Asian currencies.
India's rupee is expected to remain close to its historic low in the next six months, despite efforts by the Reserve Bank of India to reduce volatility, with over a third of analysts predicting a new low within a year.
The Indian Rupee is weakening against the US dollar, causing concern for Indian authorities who fear that it could impact the country's import and export sectors, with suspicions that India may be taking measures to limit the dollar's growth; similarly, other BRICS member countries like China and Japan are also trying to curb the US dollar's growth.
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher against the US dollar, but higher crude oil prices and support on USD/INR are likely to limit its gains.
The US Dollar underperformed against major currencies last week, crude oil continued to rally, and gold prices were cautiously higher, while upcoming events like central bank rate decisions and the Bank of England rate hike are expected to impact the market.
The value of the Indian rupee is at risk of declining significantly due to surging oil prices and the dollar's rally, despite interventions by the Reserve Bank of India to prevent a fall.
The Sindh governor claims that the Pakistani rupee will further decline against the US dollar, with petrol prices expected to fall on October 1 due to the appreciation of the rupee and the government's crackdown on currency smugglers, hoarders, and black marketers.
The Pakistani rupee has gained significantly against the US dollar due to administrative measures taken by the interim government, leading to a possible reduction in petroleum prices in the upcoming review.
The U.S. dollar remains strong above the $105 mark, supported by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and increased Treasury yields, while gold prices consolidate and oil prices rebound due to supply cuts and positive outlooks for the U.S. and China.
The Pakistani rupee has continued to rise against the US dollar, trading below Rs290, due to a crackdown on the money market, but analysts warn that the gains may only be short-term.
The strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields are causing gold prices to fall to their lowest level since March, with some analysts predicting that the bearish momentum could push prices down further to their 2023 lows at $1,810 in the spot market.
India's central bank is selling U.S. dollars to prevent the rupee from reaching a record low.
Summary: Oil prices drop over 2% as a result of a strong U.S. dollar, profit-taking, inflationary concerns, and forecasts of increasing supply, as well as the World Bank's forecast of slower Chinese growth.