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Rupee Faces Risks from Oil Rally and Strong Dollar Despite RBI Support

  • Rupee edged up against dollar on Monday, but surging oil prices and rally in dollar index increase risk of significant decline.

  • RBI has regularly intervened to defend rupee and contain volatility, but probability of new low has climbed due to oil and strong dollar.

  • Brent crude rally of 8.5% this month and 26% this quarter raises supply worries.

  • Higher oil prices could widen India's trade deficit and impact overall deficit.

  • Nomura says higher oil prices an adverse terms-of-trade shock for Asia as most economies are net importers.

reuters.com
Relevant topic timeline:
The Indian rupee is expected to rise due to a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and weak economic data, leading to a favorable near-term outlook.
The depreciating exchange rate of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar is leading to a potential economic disaster, with increased inflation, higher prices for petroleum and fuel, and a rise in poverty and unemployment.
The rupee's decline against the US dollar is being attributed to the powerful influence of the grey market and the International Monetary Fund's involvement in Pakistan's financial system, leading to a loss of control over the exchange rate and economic uncertainties.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline, with Bitcoin falling below $26,000, as traders remain cautious following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.
The Pakistani rupee has fallen below 300 to a US dollar due to factors such as the rise of the dollar, uncertainty surrounding general elections, and a political/judicial/constitutional crisis, resulting in eroded business confidence, increased inflation, and reduced industrial output.
The Indian rupee remains steady against the US dollar due to corporate dollar demand and importers' activities.
The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar due to demand from state-run banks and the potential impact of U.S. GDP data.
The Indian rupee is expected to strengthen against the US dollar due to weaker-than-expected US job openings, causing a decline in the dollar index and Treasury yields.
The Indian rupee hits a 10-month low against the US dollar due to concerns over rising oil prices and a decline in Asian currencies.
India's rupee is expected to remain close to its historic low in the next six months, despite efforts by the Reserve Bank of India to reduce volatility, with over a third of analysts predicting a new low within a year.
The Indian rupee could reach record lows against the U.S. dollar if oil prices continue to rise, according to the head of global foreign exchange at Jefferies, Brad Bechtel, although he believes the rupee will be one of the more stable currencies in emerging markets. The rupee is currently moving between 83 and 85 against the U.S. dollar, and if oil prices were to fall, it could fall close to the 82 levels.
The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin has raised concerns of a larger market downtrend, with Ethereum and Ripple also at risk of falling if Bitcoin weakens further.
The Indian Rupee is weakening against the US dollar, causing concern for Indian authorities who fear that it could impact the country's import and export sectors, with suspicions that India may be taking measures to limit the dollar's growth; similarly, other BRICS member countries like China and Japan are also trying to curb the US dollar's growth.
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher against the US dollar, but higher crude oil prices and support on USD/INR are likely to limit its gains.
Wall Street is experiencing a slight decline as oil prices continue to rise, putting pressure on inflation and causing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
Rising oil prices pose a risk to the Federal Reserve's efforts to achieve a soft landing for the economy and return inflation to its 2% target without triggering a downturn.
The Sindh governor claims that the Pakistani rupee will further decline against the US dollar, with petrol prices expected to fall on October 1 due to the appreciation of the rupee and the government's crackdown on currency smugglers, hoarders, and black marketers.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline, approaching significant price levels, in response to a broader downturn in assets sensitive to risk and the anticipation of various macroeconomic factors impacting cryptocurrencies in the near future.
Investors should be cautious as signs of a potential market downturn continue to emerge, with narrowing market breadth, worsening market sentiment, surging Treasury yields, climbing oil prices, and a hefty revision of consumer spending revealing a decrease in spending that could impact economic growth.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline in value following the disappointing launch of a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the increase in bond yields.