BRICS seeks to expand its membership and become a champion of the "Global South," with over 40 countries expressing interest in joining the bloc to challenge Western dominance and address grievances related to abusive trade practices and neglect of poorer nations' development needs, among others. However, observers note that BRICS has a limited track record and may struggle to deliver on expectations.
Summary: As GPF prepares for its next long-term forecast, preliminary forecasts suggest an expansion of US geopolitical power, the potential for civil strife in China, and turmoil in Russia due to Ukraine; other key issues to be analyzed include the impact of the BRICS system, the dysfunction and change in Eurasia, Iran's shifting position, and the significance of African instability on the global system.
The BRICS alliance could gain control of the majority of the world's oil and gas trade by including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could lead to a shift away from the USD and the de-dollarization of the oil economy.
The Brics economic group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is discussing the possibility of expanding its membership and promoting the use of local currencies for trade settlement, with aims to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but analysts believe that the greenback is unlikely to lose its status as the international reserve currency.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the BRICS Summit that the decline in the global role of the US dollar is an irreversible process, emphasizing the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
Russia has called on the BRICS alliance to abandon the US dollar for trade settlements and instead embrace local currencies, in a continuation of the bloc's de-dollarization efforts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized Western sanctions and called for member countries of the BRICS group to move away from the US dollar during an economic summit in South Africa, despite the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court.
BRICS, comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now represents almost a third of global GDP and is surpassing the economic influence of the G7, with over 40 nations expressing interest in joining.
The BRICS summit is aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. Dollar, as the coalition confirms new members including UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina, and discusses the possibility of a new payment system and currency backed by gold.
The BRICS 2023 Summit saw the expansion of the alliance with the addition of six countries, potentially leading to a shift in the global economic order and significant de-dollarization efforts, while notable absences by Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping raised concerns, and China and India made progress in their border talks.
The BRICS nations are divided on the issue of de-dollarization, as statements from the bloc's leaders indicated, despite discussions about the creation of a common currency to rival the US dollar.
The expansion of BRICS to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates will make the bloc represent 46 percent of the world population and 37 percent of global GDP, but China's economic dominance within the group raises questions about whether it will truly be an "equal partnership."
The BRICS' economic output represents over 40% of the world's population and is predicted to reach 40% of global GDP by 2040, but skepticism remains about their effectiveness as a bloc due to differences in economic policy, China's dominant role, and conflicts among member countries.
The BRICS expansion and their de-dollarization efforts have been met with a relatively calm response from the US, Germany, and the European Union, emphasizing the importance of countries choosing partnerships based on their national interests.
The BRICS bloc, which has now expanded to include 11 countries, controls 30% of the global economy, 46% of the world's population, and a significant share of commodities such as manganese, graphite, nickel, and copper, as well as 42% of the global oil supply, potentially putting pressure on the US economy and challenging the traditional world order.
China's economic tactics, including BRICS expansion, are aimed at challenging the US economically rather than engaging in a war, according to US presidential candidate RFK Jr., who believes China wants to bury the US on an economic playing field while still relying on it.
Developing countries, including members of the BRICS and ASEAN alliances, are actively seeking to reduce their dependency on the US dollar and promote their local currencies for global trade, with a total of 21 countries officially agreeing to ditch the US dollar in 2023.
The BRICS expansion, which includes countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, has raised concerns in the U.S. and EU as it poses a threat to Western-dominated financial markets, while China's influence grows and the alliance aims for de-dollarization in global trade.
The BRICS group invited six new members, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, indicating a move towards energy dominance and diversification, but internal divides and strategic rivalries within the bloc may hinder its ability to challenge the current global energy order.
The trade sanctions imposed on Russia have benefited India and China, with Russia becoming the biggest supplier of crude oil to India and the bilateral trade between Russia and China potentially surpassing $200 billion this year, resulting in the US reshaping its global trade strategies and Mexico overtaking China as America's biggest trading partner.
Sanctions imposed on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine have resulted in fuel shortages, scarcity of readily available items, and impacts on the aviation industry, paper production, plywood manufacturing, cell-phone reception, tire and lubricant supply, and the production of military vehicles.
Developing countries, including the BRICS alliance, are looking to end reliance on the US dollar due to increasing debt and the threat of inflation, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and a rise in prices. Economist Peter Schiff warns of a tragic ending for the US dollar if other countries continue to move away from it.
The BRICS bloc, including countries like India, China, and Russia, is slowly reducing its dependency on the US dollar and using their local currencies for trade, which could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the dominant global currency.