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White House and Wall Street: Brief Shutdown Unlikely to Cause Recession, But Risks Rise as Impasse Drags On

  • White House and Wall Street estimates suggest a brief shutdown is unlikely to cause recession, but risks mount as it lasts longer.

  • Previous shutdowns reduced GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week, but growth rebounded afterward.

  • Shutdowns dent consumer confidence and reduce federal workers' incomes, slowing spending.

  • Prolonged shutdown could blind Fed policymakers by delaying economic data releases.

  • Shutdown risks are higher now with growth slowing; a quarter-long one could push GDP negative.

nytimes.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
There is a significant chance of a government shutdown as lawmakers on Capitol Hill are divided on reaching a resolution, with Senator Ted Cruz suggesting that President Biden and Senator Schumer may want a shutdown for political gain.
President Joe Biden warns that Republican-backed spending cuts could negatively impact the U.S. economy and voters as the deadline for a possible government shutdown approaches.
The potential government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial data on the labor market and inflation, which could hinder its ability to make informed decisions about the economy and interest rates.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that there are no signs of an economic downturn, but warns that a government shutdown could undermine economic momentum.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warns House Republicans that a government shutdown would be detrimental to the Republican Party both politically and in terms of policy change.
The White House warns that a government shutdown at the end of the month could have damaging consequences for the economy, national security, and the American public.
Investors shouldn't worry about a government shutdown as it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the markets.
Millions of federal employees and military personnel face the prospect of a government shutdown, which would result in financial hardships for American families, disruptions in services, and potential harm to the economy.
The federal government is likely to face a shutdown that will affect various services, disrupt workers' pay, and create political turmoil as Republicans demand deep spending cuts.
The impending federal shutdown, combined with other economic challenges such as rising gas prices, student loan payments, and reduced pandemic savings, is expected to strain American households and potentially weaken economic growth in the last quarter of the year.
A potential government shutdown in Washington could have far-reaching consequences, causing financial losses for millions of people, disrupting medical research and food access, delaying regulatory efforts, and hampering the Biden administration's agenda on energy, climate, and infrastructure.
President Biden warns of the potential consequences of a government shutdown, urging Republicans in Congress to take action to prevent it.
A government shutdown on October 1 is likely, but it is not expected to have a significant impact on financial markets or cause an economic recession.
Google searches about the potential government shutdown in the US are increasing, with a particular interest in how it would affect Social Security, veterans' benefits, and the US dollar.
A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact its credit assessment and highlight the weakness of its institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, according to Moody's, although the economic impact would likely be short-lived.
A government shutdown in the US may cause the Federal Reserve to delay an interest rate hike and could impact the recent strength of the dollar, analysts have warned. The shutdown could also lead to a delay in key inflation data, which would affect Fed policy decisions, and may put pressure on consumer spending.
The impending government shutdown may have an impact on the financial markets, according to Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.
There is a 90% chance of a government shutdown, according to Goldman Sachs, as the deadline looms and little progress has been made in negotiations.
A government shutdown would severely impact the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's ability to approve IPOs and respond to market turmoil, according to its chair, Gary Gensler.
The White House has warned that the partial shutdown of the US government could hinder almost 2,000 long-term disaster recovery projects, impacting communities across the country.
President Biden's hands-off approach to the looming government shutdown is a strategy to highlight his accomplishments, but it could disrupt his planned travel schedule and events.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that a potential government shutdown would harm economic progress, impacting key programs for small businesses and children and delaying infrastructure improvements.
A potential government shutdown in the United States could lead to furloughs, paused paychecks, and a significant economic impact, potentially costing upwards of $1 billion a week, while the stock market and interest rates may not be heavily affected.
US government shutdown averted as President Biden signs a stopgap bill to keep the government open through November 17.