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Government Shutdown Looms if Budget Deal Not Reached, But Impact Likely Short-Term

  • A government shutdown could occur on October 1 if a deal is not reached by September 30. This would disrupt some government services and employee pay.

  • Shutdowns have historically been short, averaging 8 days. The 2013 shutdown over Obamacare funding seems most analogous.

  • Essential employees still work but won't get paid. Some economic data releases could be delayed or skipped.

  • Shutdowns don't significantly impact GDP growth. Lost activity is typically recouped when government reopens.

  • Stocks have not reacted much to past shutdowns. Minimal impact expected unless very prolonged.

forbes.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
The potential government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial data on the labor market and inflation, which could hinder its ability to make informed decisions about the economy and interest rates.
The White House warns that a government shutdown at the end of the month could have damaging consequences for the economy, national security, and the American public.
A full government shutdown in the US is likely at the end of the month, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in November, according to analysts at PIMCO.
Investors shouldn't worry about a government shutdown as it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the markets.
The US government faces a potential shutdown if Congress fails to agree on funding past September 30, which would be the first shutdown since December 2018 and could result in a longer standoff between parties.
The looming government shutdown may disrupt the return of student loan payments on October 1, as loan servicers struggle to handle the influx of borrowers seeking assistance.
The federal government is likely to face a shutdown that will affect various services, disrupt workers' pay, and create political turmoil as Republicans demand deep spending cuts.
The impending federal shutdown, combined with other economic challenges such as rising gas prices, student loan payments, and reduced pandemic savings, is expected to strain American households and potentially weaken economic growth in the last quarter of the year.
If lawmakers fail to pass a budget by October 1, the government will shut down and it could have several negative impacts on the economy, such as furloughed workers, difficulty in obtaining mortgages, and the Federal Reserve lacking important data for monetary policy decisions.
A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact its credit assessment and highlight the weakness of its institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, according to Moody's, although the economic impact would likely be short-lived.
Investors are concerned about the possibility of a US interest rate hike and a government shutdown, which could impact the US credit rating and push the world's top economy into recession.
The House and Senate are racing against time to prevent a government shutdown on October 1st by attempting to pass a measure to keep the government open for 45 days, but the outcome remains uncertain due to the opposition of extreme right-wing lawmakers.
The possibility of a government shutdown in the U.S. could have negative implications for the crypto industry's regulatory progress and projects, similar to the effects seen in the previous shutdown in 2018 and 2019, with delays in approvals and a withdrawal of a bitcoin ETF application.
The White House is preparing for a possible government shutdown on October 1, with senior officials drawing up plans for essential personnel, as lawmakers struggle to find a funding solution.
The impending government shutdown may have an impact on the financial markets, according to Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.
A brief government shutdown is unlikely to significantly slow down the economy, but a prolonged shutdown could hurt growth and potentially impact President Biden's re-election prospects.
A government shutdown in the U.S. could cause significant disruptions in the stock and bond markets, with the Securities and Exchange Commission being forced to furlough most of its staff and leaving the market oversight at a "skeletal" crew level.
There is a 90% chance of a government shutdown, according to Goldman Sachs, as the deadline looms and little progress has been made in negotiations.
A government shutdown would severely impact the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's ability to approve IPOs and respond to market turmoil, according to its chair, Gary Gensler.
Goldman Sachs' chief economist predicts that the U.S. government is likely to face a two-to-three-week-long shutdown beginning on October 1 due to the failure to reach an agreement on annual budget legislation.
Millions of Americans anticipate a government shutdown as Congress struggles to pass a budget, potentially causing a short-term stock market gain.
A government shutdown is looming as lawmakers have until the end of the day Saturday to reach a deal or the U.S. will face one of the largest government shutdowns in history, impacting millions of workers and services.
A potential government shutdown in the US may lead to a delay or absence of the September consumer-price index report, which would complicate decisions for financial markets and the Federal Reserve.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that a government shutdown could lead to a recession, with immediate harm and long-term repercussions for the economy.