Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. government is "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to spending disagreements, which could temporarily impact economic growth by reducing it by 0.15-0.2 percentage points per week, with past shutdowns having minimal impact on equity markets.
The US economy may face disruption as debts are refinanced at higher interest rates, which could put pressure on both financial institutions and the government, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic.
Top economist David Rosenberg predicts that the US will experience a recession within the next six months due to the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the erosion of credit quality in credit card debt.
Deutsche Bank strategists warn that the U.S. economy has a greater chance of entering a recession within the next year due to high inflation and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike campaign.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
The potential government shutdown threatens to deprive the Federal Reserve of crucial data on the labor market and inflation, which could hinder its ability to make informed decisions about the economy and interest rates.
Despite rising gas prices, Americans remain optimistic about inflation easing, as expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead have fallen to the lowest level since March 2021, according to a consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. However, concerns are surfacing about a potential government shutdown, which could dampen consumer views on the economy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause on interest rate hikes due to positive economic indicators and the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the economy, but future decisions will be influenced by factors such as the resumption of student loan payments and a potential government shutdown.
The White House warns that a government shutdown at the end of the month could have damaging consequences for the economy, national security, and the American public.
A full government shutdown in the US is likely at the end of the month, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in November, according to analysts at PIMCO.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
Summary: Investors shouldn't worry about a government shutdown as it is unlikely to significantly impact the stock market.
The impending federal shutdown, combined with other economic challenges such as rising gas prices, student loan payments, and reduced pandemic savings, is expected to strain American households and potentially weaken economic growth in the last quarter of the year.
A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact its credit assessment and highlight the weakness of its institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments, according to Moody's, although the economic impact would likely be short-lived.
The possibility of a government shutdown in the U.S. could have negative implications for the crypto industry's regulatory progress and projects, similar to the effects seen in the previous shutdown in 2018 and 2019, with delays in approvals and a withdrawal of a bitcoin ETF application.
The impending government shutdown may have an impact on the financial markets, according to Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.
A recession is highly likely in the US and investors should prepare for it by adopting a defensive strategy, according to the CEO of the TCW Group, Katie Koch, who believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will start to have an impact and expects consumers and companies to struggle in this environment.
Millions of Americans anticipate a government shutdown as Congress struggles to pass a budget, potentially causing a short-term stock market gain.
The US economy is facing turbulence as inflation rates rise, causing losses in US Treasuries and raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on assets like Bitcoin and the stock market. With additional government debt expected to mature in the next year, there is a fear of financial instability and the potential for severe disruptions in the financial system. The Federal Reserve may continue to support the financial system through emergency credit lines, which could benefit assets like Bitcoin.
A potential government shutdown in the US may lead to a delay or absence of the September consumer-price index report, which would complicate decisions for financial markets and the Federal Reserve.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that a government shutdown could lead to a recession, with immediate harm and long-term repercussions for the economy.
Rising interest rates, rather than inflation, are now a major concern for the US economy, as the bond market indicates that rates may stay high for an extended period of time, potentially posing significant challenges for the sustainability of government debt.
The summer's positive economic indicators, such as lower inflation and strong job numbers, have led to optimism that the US will avoid a recession, but factors such as a potential auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and a government shutdown could contribute to a downturn. The combined impact of these factors, along with others like higher interest rates and oil prices, suggests that a recession may be looming.
Investors will be closely watching market reactions to a late deal to avert a government shutdown, as well as key data on the labor market this week, while concerns about higher interest rates and the impact on the economy weigh on stock futures.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
The chaos in Washington and uncertainty surrounding a possible government shutdown could make it less likely for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year, as the economy and inflation appear to be cooling off.
The potential threat of another government shutdown in the US has Wall Street concerned about the country's AAA credit ratings, with Moody's warning that a shutdown would be a credit negative for the US.
Higher-for-longer interest rates are expected to hinder U.S. economic growth by 0.5%, potentially leading unprofitable public companies to cut their workforce, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, who also noted that the Federal Reserve's current benchmark rate is insufficient to cause a recession. Additionally, the firm warned that the high rates could increase the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to 123% over the next decade without a fiscal agreement in Washington.
Interest rates are a major focus in financial markets as rising rates have far-reaching consequences, making future projections less valuable and hindering investments, and there is still uncertainty about the full impact of rate hikes on the economy, potentially delaying the start of a recession until mid-2024.
Economists are predicting that the U.S. economy is less likely to experience a recession in the next year, with the likelihood dropping below 50% for the first time since last year, thanks to factors such as falling inflation, the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, and a strong labor market.
The U.S. economy is facing risks in 2024 as inflation remains high and interest rates are historically high, leading to concerns about a potential recession; however, the Federal Reserve is optimistic about achieving a soft landing and maintaining economic growth. Economists are divided on whether the Fed's measures will be effective in avoiding a severe recession, and investors are advised to proceed cautiously in their financial decisions.
The US economy experienced strong growth in the third quarter of 2023, fueled by consumer spending, but there are warning signs of a possible recession due to the impact of rate hikes on auto loans, credit cards, and student debt, as well as higher borrowing costs and the potential for deeper recession if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.
