The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
US payrolls growth in the year through March is forecasted to be weaker by an estimated 500,000 jobs, according to a preliminary benchmark revision, however, average job growth is expected to remain strong at around 300,000 payrolls per month and economists do not anticipate a significant shift in labor market conditions.
The US Labor Department has revised downward its estimate of total payroll employment in March 2023, revealing a slightly cooler labor market than previously thought, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates at their upcoming policy meeting in September.
The Bank of Canada may shift its focus from the output gap to labor market indicators, such as unemployment and wages, in order to make inflation forecasts and guide its interest rate decisions, according to a report by CIBC economists. The report suggests that the labor market has become a more reliable indicator of excess demand or supply, and forecasts that if the job market outlook suggests it's not necessary, there may be no more rate hikes this year and rate cuts in early 2024.
U.S. job openings reach lowest level in nearly 2.5 years in July, signaling a slowdown in the labor market and potential impact on interest rates.
The number of job vacancies in the US dropped in July, indicating a cooling labor market that could alleviate inflation, while fewer Americans quit their jobs and consumer confidence in the economy decreased, potentially impacting consumer spending; these trends may lead the Federal Reserve to delay a rate hike in September.
Job creation in the US slowed in August, indicating that the strong economy could be starting to weaken under pressure from higher interest rates. Private employers added 177,000 jobs, well below the previous month's total of 371,000. Pay growth also slowed, suggesting more sustainable growth as the effects of the pandemic recede. Investors and economists remain uncertain about the future of US inflation and whether the economy can continue to grow without a significant slowdown.
The US economy added 177,000 jobs in August, slightly below expectations, but indicating sustainable growth in pay and employment as the effects of the pandemic diminish.
The August jobs report is highly anticipated as investors assess the health of the labor market amidst rising interest rates and inflation, with projections indicating an increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but potential disruptions from ongoing strikes and bankruptcies could affect the data. The report is closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of labor market softening as they grapple with inflation, and while the labor market has remained tight, there are indications of a gradual slowdown. Job openings have decreased, along with resignations, pointing to a labor market that is cooling.
Job creation in the American labor market is expected to slow down in August, with the addition of approximately 170,000 jobs, reflecting a mild cooling of employment growth and wage growth, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on hiring; the recent strikes in the film industry, although not a significant direct employer, are likely to have some impact on the jobs numbers, particularly those related to on-set production and support roles.
The US added 187,000 jobs in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, indicating a plateau in the labor market as the Federal Reserve considers another interest rate hike.
The US added more jobs than expected in August, but the unemployment rate rose, causing little change in the price of bitcoin while traditional markets reacted positively.
The week has been driven by macroeconomic data, but the threat of economic contraction is not currently imminent, with the US Ten-Year Note yielding around 4.11% overnight and the US Dollar Index trading around 103.5; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its employment-related surveys for August today, with economists expecting non-farm job creation of around 170,000 and wage growth at 4.4% year over year.
The unemployment rate model predicts that if the unemployment rate reaches 4% or higher in September 2023, a recession will be signaled with a 73% probability for October.
The US job market added 187,000 jobs in July, returning to pre-pandemic levels and indicating a gradual cooling off of the labor market, with positive economic news and a steady unemployment rate of 3.5%.
U.S. economic growth was modest in July and August, with slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, indicating that the Federal Reserve may be close to finishing its interest rate increases.
Canada added 40,000 jobs in August, surpassing economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%. This positive job growth suggests that the economy is not completely stalled, but the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates in the near future.
The economic data in aggregate suggests that the US economy is on track for a soft landing in 2024, with the Federal Reserve successfully slowing down economic growth and achieving its target inflation rate, despite concerns from the bear camp.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is generating less attention than usual, indicating that the Fed's job of pursuing maximum employment and price stability is seen as successful, with labor market data and inflation trends supporting this view.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
The number of job layoffs in the U.S. remains near a record low despite rising interest rates and high inflation.
