Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the fight against inflation still has a long way to go, emphasizing the need for extended periods of elevated interest rates to restore price stability. Powell stated that although inflation has cooled, the improvement may be temporary, and the Fed is committed to lowering inflation to their 2% target.
The spike in retail inflation has raised uncertainty for investors and savers, with expectations of interest rate cuts being pushed to the next fiscal year and the possibility of a rate hike. The Reserve Bank of India projects inflation to stay above 5% until the first quarter of 2024-25, and food price pressures are expected to persist. While inflation may impact stock market returns, gold and bank deposit rates are expected to remain steady.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester believes that beating inflation will require one more interest-rate hike and then a temporary pause, stating that rate cuts may not begin in late 2024 as previously thought.
Global inflation pressures could intensify in the coming years due to rising trade barriers, aging populations, and the transition to renewable energy, posing challenges for central banks in meeting their inflation targets.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is confident that his plan to reduce inflation in the UK is working and will alleviate financial strain on households, despite criticism from experts and opposition politicians. He believes that sticking to the plan and reducing inflation will ease the pressure on families and businesses and lead to economic growth. However, some Conservative colleagues may disagree with his focus on public sector productivity rather than tax cuts. Labour's shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, criticized Hunt for being out of touch with the economic realities faced by families and called for investment in the economy to benefit working people.
The Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise interest rates even higher to combat inflation, but some policymakers, like Raphael Bostic, believe it is unnecessary and advocate for keeping the rates at their current level until 2024.
The upcoming Bitcoin mining reward halving in April 2024 is anticipated to boost the cryptocurrency market, although previous halvings did not single-handedly initiate bull runs, as macroeconomic factors like fiat liquidity conditions also played a significant role, according to MacroMicro data. The growth rate of the M2 money supply by major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China, is expected to impact the magnitude of the halving-induced uptrend.
Americans are expecting high inflation to persist over the next few years, with a median expectation of 3.6% one year from now and estimates of around 3% three years from now, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This suggests that sticky inflation may continue to be a concern, as it surpasses the Fed's 2% target. Consumers also anticipate price increases in necessities such as rent, gasoline, medical costs, and food, as well as college tuition and home prices.
Investors and the Federal Reserve will have to wait for inflation to return to acceptable levels, as the Consumer Price Index report for August 2023 shows consumer prices rising at half the pace compared to a year ago, despite a jump in gas prices.
Jeremy Hunt has warned that high inflation rates in Britain will prevent tax cuts this autumn, as the Bank of England signals another rate rise to ease cost of living pressures. Hunt cautions against overstimulating the economy and pushing up prices by pumping extra money into consumers' pockets.
The latest reading of inflation suggests that interest rates may start to normalize soon, with economists discussing the need for rates to be high enough to control inflation without causing damage to the economy. The key is to maintain long durations at current levels of inflation and interest rates with no surprises.
The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision at the end of the year that could determine whether the US economy suffers or inflation exceeds target levels, according to economist Mohamed El-Erian. He suggests the central bank must choose between tolerating inflation at 3% or higher, or risking a downturn in the economy.
Consumers' inflation expectations have reached the lowest level since March 2021, with expectations of a 3.1% rise in prices over the next year, according to new data from the University of Michigan, signaling a positive sentiment for the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.
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